argument65[jet]小组第七次作业

O--honeyUID: 2452493

字 数：645    时间：08.2.16
The arguer made a quick conclusion from last years’ best—selling ranking and a recent survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine and concerning with the reduction of expenses by limiting inventory that best way to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and make a important concentration on domestic cheese. A serious examination of arguer’s argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion he’s made.

Firstly, according to the imply made by the arguer, the five best-selling cheeses at newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses last year, so, in this case, he intent to domestic cheeses business, I think this reason he depended on is obviously fairy weird. Due to our common sense, people’s taste will change with their mood, weather condition, or even the surrounding area, so maybe just passed by the cheese store and happened to want to have some domestic cheeses, who knows? So this is an uncertainty which can not be an evidence to prove anything! What’s more, the arguer pointed out the time was last year, so what about this year? What about next year? Maybe this year people prefer to eat imported cheeses, maybe still not, so the arguer should put this into consideration. However, the word “newest” I have also noticed which may lead to anther possibility: maybe the newest store is a little different from other old stores which is a essence factor that can affect people’s taste while lots of other old stores remained the same in which imported cheeses are very welcomed. As we all know that some totally new stores can attract more subscribers than old stores because of some vision effects, and some domestic cheeses leave deeper impression than imported cheeses to customers. In this case, unless the arguer can ruled out those possibilities, he can not make such a hasty conclusion


Secondly, the arguer also make this conclusion resulted partly in a recent survey by Cheese of the World magazine which indicated an increasing preference for domestic among its subscribers. The funniest thing is that the magazine only pointed out the increasing trend towards domestic cheeses, but not said that most people dislike imported cheeses, yet the arguer took it for granted, maybe most customs like imported cheeses best while hardly there is anyone prefer to buy domestic cheeses, but recently, the domestic preference has gradually increased. Besides this, the arguer did not mention the magazine named Cheese of the World has relative authority or not, maybe it is only a small magazine and this survey was conducted during a very small amount of people that can not explain anything, what’s more, he also implied that the survey was conducted recently yet the exact time is still a secret, we can not eliminate the possibility that the survey was conducted a long time ago that it owes nothing significant. To our common sense that this kind of market investigating would be developed at least more than three magazines until it can present something that really happened, therefore, only one magazine is far from enough.

Thirdly, even if the arguer’s argument is quite right, I don’t think discontinuing stocking many of their varieties of cheeses can do something great to improve profits yet discontinuing stocking the quantity of the cheeses that imported will do. Even discontinuing the varieties but the numbers of the imported cheeses has not been reduced, improving profits can be a far-reaching project, and even more a great amount of loss may have been made. So, the arguer’s suggestion may entirely lead to an opposite way

In sum, the arguer’s irresponsible remark that only rely on last year’s one store’s grade and only one recent magazine’s commence may lead to a great loss to that company unless the argue ruled out several possibilities that may affect the conclusion!