Argument176 我的第二篇

guoty87UID: 2459631

TOPIC: ARGUMENT176 - The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company.

"A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."

WORDS: 553                    DATE: 2008-2-17 下午 08:43:58

In this memo the sales director recommends that if the company can get the authority to sell Venadial internationally, the company is sure to get great profits in a very short time. To support this recommendation the director points out that Venadial can reduce cholesterol levels and risk of heart attact and this product is so popular in this country. At first glance, this memo might be somehow reasonable, but further consideration reveals that it contains several logical flaws and is therefore unconvincing as it stands.

To begin with, the director proves no evidence that the study is done with a sufficiently large sample and in a quite long period. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that the results are statistically unreliable. Perhaps those who participate in this study cannot represent the overall population or the study lasts so short that the responce is not so stable. Without such evidence the director cannot confidently draw any general conclusions about the effects of Venadial.

Secondly, even assuming that the study is done with a sufficiently large sample and in a quite long period, the director fails to convince me that it is Venadial that works by activating a metabolic response. As it is not yet well understood, the director cannot be sure that Venadial has a positive response to cholesterol levels and risk of heart attact. Perhaps there are some other factors or other substenses that attribute to such good phenomenon. Perhaps those who consume Venadial daily have good life habits, such as sports and healthy sleep routine, during the study period. So without ruling out such other factors it is unfair to conclude that Venadial are good for health.

Thirdly, the director points out that it is because the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on shelves. Yet this might not be the case. As is known to all that the metabolic reponse has not been well understood, this product perhaps cannot be kept on shelves let alone to sell. Moreover, even if it can be sold, the product perhaps is so expensive that stores do not want to keep it on shelves. In other words, the director draws too hastly that the product is very popular just because stores are unable to keep it on shelves.

Finally, even if assuming that new margarine is very popular and the companay can get quite a lot of profits, the director recommends too hastly that the profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time. Perhaps considering the transpotation expences the company cannot profit a lot. Or perhaps this product is not so popular in other countries just because the people there are so healthy (low cholesterol levels and low risk of heart attack) that they do not need it. Without ruling out such possible factors the director cannot convince me that it is a perfect recommendation.

In sum, without additional information the director's recommendation to sell Venadial internationally is not quite persuasive as it stands. To strengthen the recommendation the director must prove that: (1) Venadial really works by activating a metabolic response and is healthy, (2) the new margarine is very popular and it surely promise good profits, (3) the sales of the new margarine will also be successful in forign countries.

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zylpascalUID: 2710054

写的他妈的太好了 我靠！