argument38 by beetle1986

beetle1986UID: 2431214

TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."

WORDS: 424          TIME: 00:29:30          DATE: 2008-2-16 下午 07:30:28

In this memo, the author claims that by taking Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, the absences by colds could be reduced effectively. To support this argument, the author cites a study that in nearby East Meria, the fish consumption is huge, and people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. For several reasons, I am not convinced that this argument is accurate.

To begin with, the precondition of this argument is that Ichthaid has same effort as fish on prevent colds. However, the author fails to provide any evidence to strengthen it. Even if the fish could help to prevent colds, the effects of Ichthaid are uncertain. Suppose that a certain substance in fish can help to cure colds, it is not sure that fish oil contains such substance. Ichthaid is derived from fish oil, there are so many uncertain factors to influence the containment of such substance. So before we make sure that Ichthaid can prevent colds, we cannot draw any conclusion about the consequence after taking Ichthaid.

Secondly, the study cited in the argument is specious. To visit the doctor twice a year does mean that catch the colds twice a year, furthermore, it does not mean absences by colds twice per year. It is entirely possible that people in East Meria average catch cold five times per year, visit the doctor twice, and absent from work eight times. It is also possible that people in West Meria average catch colds twice per year, the almost never visit the doctor for the treatment of colds, and absent once per year by colds. If that is the case, the study is unconvincing. To better evaluate this study, the author should provide more information about it.

Finally, the fact that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences is unwarranted. There are numerous factors could result to absence, such as traffic jam, families affairs, etc. Before the author supply the record of all absences and the reasons, I would not be convinced that the absences of cold are significant, and we have to take some policies to reduce it.

To sum up, the argument is simply not credible, at least based on the memo. To make this recommendation convincing, these information would be useful: (1) whether people in East Meria catch less colds than those in West Meria; (2) clear evidence that fish can help to prevent colds, so can Ichthaid; (3) the side-effect of Ichthaid; (4) the record of absences and reason.

wenwenwen4444UID: 2377774

In this memo, the author claims that by taking Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, the absences by（for） colds could be reduced effectively. To support this argument, the author cites a study that in nearby East Meria, the fish consumption is huge, and people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. For several reasons, I am not convinced that this argument is accurate.

To begin with, the precondition of this argument is that Ichthaid has the same effort as fish on prevent colds. However, the author fails to provide any evidence to strengthen it. Even if the fish could help to prevent colds, the effects of Ichthaid are uncertain. Suppose that a certain substance in fish can help to cure colds, it is not sure that fish oil contains such substance. Ichthaid is derived from fish oil, there are so many uncertain factors to influence the containment of such substance. So before we make sure that Ichthaid can prevent colds, we cannot draw any conclusion about the consequence after taking Ichthaid.

Secondly, the study cited in the argument is specious. To visit the doctor twice a year does mean that catch the colds twice a year, furthermore, it does not mean absences by colds twice per year. It is entirely possible that people in East Meria average catch cold five times per year, visit the doctor twice, and absent from work eight times. It is also possible that people in West Meria average catch colds twice per year, the almost never visit the doctor for the treatment of colds, and absent once per year by colds. 这些possible光是列出了可能性，没有解释一下，不好。在前面就应该点出这些possible的可能性。If that is the case, the study is unconvincing. To better evaluate this study, the author should provide more information about it.

Finally, the fact that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences is unwarranted. There are numerous factors could result to absence, such as traffic jam, families affairs, etc. Before the author supply the record of all absences and the reasons, I would not be convinced that the absences of cold are significant, and we have to take some policies to reduce it.

To sum up, the argument is simply not credible, at least based on the memo. To make this recommendation convincing, these information would be useful: (1) whether people in East Meria catch less colds than those in West Meria; (2) clear evidence that fish can help to prevent colds, so can Ichthaid; (3) the side-effect of Ichthaid; (4) the record of absences and reason.

还是模版的问题拉，模版没问题，关键分析论证再多些，给分点主要在分析这一块，模版只是凑字数。

geyserUID: 2446453

In this memo, the author claims that by taking Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, the absences by colds could be reduced effectively. To support this argument, the author cites a study that in nearby East Meria, the fish consumption is huge, and people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. For several reasons, I am not convinced that this argument is accurate.

To begin with, the precondition of this argument is that Ichthaid has same effort as fish on prevent colds. However, the author fails to provide any evidence to strengthen it. Even if the fish could help to prevent colds, the effects of Ichthaid are uncertain. Suppose that a certain substance in fish can help to cure colds, it is not sure that fish oil contains such substance. Ichthaid is derived from fish oil, there are so many uncertain factors to influence the containment of such substance. So before we make sure that Ichthaid can prevent colds, we cannot draw any conclusion about the consequence after taking Ichthaid.
感觉有点啰嗦, 因为整段事实上只讲了一个东西, 就是鱼油里面不一定含有对感冒有好处的东西. 思路可以拓宽一点, 比如吃鱼不一定有好处或者 鱼油可能有副作用之类.

Secondly, the study cited in the argument is specious. To visit the doctor twice a year does mean that catch the colds twice a year, furthermore, it does not mean absences by colds twice per year. It is entirely possible that people in East Meria average catch cold five times per year, visit the doctor twice, and absent from work eight times. It is also possible that people in West Meria average catch colds twice per year, the almost never visit the doctor for the treatment of colds, and absent once per year by colds. If that is the case, the study is unconvincing. To better evaluate this study, the author should provide more information about it.  
这段的反例举的很奇怪, 我个人不是很推荐大量列举数据, 意义不大而且有凑字数之嫌.

Finally, the fact that colds are the reason most frequently given for absences is unwarranted. There are numerous factors could result to absence, such as traffic jam, families affairs, etc. Before the author supply the record of all absences and the reasons, I would not be convinced that the absences of cold are significant, and we have to take some policies to reduce it.

To sum up, the argument is simply not credible, at least based on the memo. To make this recommendation convincing, these information would be useful: (1) whether people in East Meria catch less colds than those in West Meria; (2) clear evidence that fish can help to prevent colds, so can Ichthaid; (3) the side-effect of Ichthaid; (4) the record of absences and reason.

文章感觉有点啰嗦, 大段的篇幅用在性价比不高的举例和模板的句子上. 可能是因为限时写的关系思维比较窄, 虽然错误都找到了但是驳斥的时候缺乏论证.

呃, 这些只是我自己的看法,仅作参考啊~~而且限时写成这样保底的分数是没有问题了.