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argument38 by Barretshao
TOPIC: ARGUMENT38 - The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
WORDS: 480 TIME: 00:44:09 DATE: 2008-2-8 下午 11:11:33
In this memo, the author recommends that the daily use of Ichthaid as in order to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To support the recommendation, the author points out that a study that in nearby East Meria, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. The author also points out that Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, will prevent cold and lower absenteeism which are mostly caused by colds. However, close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little support for the recommendation.
To begin with, the author assumes that the low frequency of East Meria people visiting the doctor for treatment of colds result from the high fish consumption. However, it is entirely possible that one or more factors were responsible for the low frequency. Consider, for example, people of East Meria do more oxygen exercises which will enhance their health. Or consider that there are some other food which residents of East Meria eat frequently will lead to the prevention of cold. Either scenario would provide an alternative explanation for the fact that East Meria people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds.
Even if the the high assumption of fish was responsible for the low frequency of people visiting the doctor for the treatment of colds. The mere fact of East Meria is scant evidence that eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds for West Meria. Perhaps the West Meria climate is more warm and the difference in temperature is less significant than the East Meria due to geological differences between the two areas. In short, lacking evidence that conditions in two areas are reverently similar, the author cannot convince me on the basis of East Meria experience that eating a lot of fish could prevent colds.
Even assuming that the effects of fish woks similarly on two areas people, the author provides no evidence that Ichthaid , a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, is the useful part of fish which could prevent colds. It is entirely possible that some other parts of fish have this effect, rather than fish oil, such as swimming bladder. Moreover, the author provides no evidence that this distill would not have side effect on human beings.
To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the author maintains. To bolster it the author must provide specific evidence that there were not other explanations of the low frequency of visiting doctor for the treatment of colds in East Meria and that eating fish preventing colds in the two areas are otherwise essentially the same. To better assess the strength of the recommendation, I would need more information about the component of both preventing cold part of the fish and fish oil.
[ 本帖最后由 barretshao 于 2008-2-19 20:37 编辑 ] |
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