ARGUMENT117 JET小组第九次作业

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题目：ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
字数：494          用时：00:49:26          日期：2008-2-19 9:40:30

In this memo, the author claims that by increasing sotres the stock of home office machines , the office-suuply departments will become the most profitable componet of sotres.To substantiate this claim, the author cited a survey and points and points that the Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sale in its office-suuply departments in the past.After a close scrutiny, however, there is few evidence showing credible support to this argument.

First of all , the threshold problem with the argument is that the survey over 70 percent of the respondents reported that they are required to take more work home with them form the workplace.The survey should be reliable in all respects.However, the author provides no information that how many emlogyees participated in the survey.It is highly possible that thought 10000 employees participated in the survey, only 100 employeess respond the survey.Furthermore, there is few information about the sex, occupation, and age about the respondents.Lacking sufficient information and statistics about the survey, the author can not expect us to take seriously that the over 70 percent of the respondents is representative of all employees of Valu-mart.

Furthermore, even assuming over 70 percent of respondents is representative of all employees of Valu-mart, the author can not conclude that  stores the stock of home office machines would cause the increase of the sales of office-supply departments increasce.The author commits an" cause-effect-relationship"fallcay.There is no evidence that people have a increasing need for the home office machines.Perhaps, they have plent of home office machines,it is unnecessary for them to buy new home office machines.What is more, by increasing the sale of office-supply departments, there is not only the way that store the stock of home office machines.The Valu-Mart can improve the management and employ experienced employees.Without in details taking account into these possibilities , the author can not draw an conclusion that by stocking the home office machines, the sale of office-supply departments will increase.

Finally, the author claims that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores.It is impossible for us to find analogous information between the office-supply departments and other departments.It is high possible that other departments have more attractive productions and  the sales of any departments far surpass the the sales of office-supply departments.Though the sales of office-supply departments have increased, still can the sales be less than other departments.If the author can not provide enough analogous imformation and statsitscs between the office-supply department and other departments, he or she can not conclude that the office-supply departments is the most profitable component.

In sum , the quthor cannot convincc me that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores.To strengthe thsi argument , I would need more statistics about the survey and sufficient evidence that the stocking home office machines will cause the increasing of sale of office-supply departments.Furthermore, the author also provide analogous information between office-supply departments and other departments to rule out abovementioned possibilites which undermine the argument