argument18【Chasing For "6" Score】第一次作业

xipanlinyuUID: 2300112

TOPIC: ARGUMENT 18 - The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
WORDS: 581          TIME: 1:00:00          DATE: 2008-3-3

提纲:
1.Butler的事故率下降不可信：a)reported不一定真实; b)下降25%之后可能仍比Prunty高,则不值得借鉴
2.即使Butler的事故率确实下降也不一定是由于修路的工程的原因 non-causal relationship
3.不一定是speed limit 的设置问题,司机超速驾驶,可能是执法不严

In this argument, the arguer suggests that we should carry out the road improvement project as Butler County did five years ago for the purpose of cutting down the accident rate. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that Butler County have received satisfying results of a twenty-five decrease in their accident rate. In addition, the arguer reasons that our effort of lowering speed limit has failed due to the fact that our accident rate has gone down only slightly. This argument is unconvincing for several critical flaws.

In the first place, the argument rests on the questionable assumption that Butler County is worth being considered as an example for us to follow because it has meliorated its traffic condition. The twenty-five percent of decrease is reported statistical data, whose creditability needs to be substantiated. Were all the accidents reported? No one guarantees. Besides, what is their concrete number of past and present accident rate? If after falling by twenty-five percent, their rate is still higher than ours, I am afraid that their experience is not worth our learning.

Even if Butler County's accident rate has been significantly reduced, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the improvement project and the lowered rate. There can many other possible alternatives to the lowered rate. Such alternatives may include the fact that Butler's citizens now are able to afford to drive better cars with high quality of brackets, or more citizens moved out or chose career near their home in past five years, resulting in less cars on the road. It is also possible that there are less young, inexperienced, or less elderly, unsafe drivers in Butler than five years ago. Or perhaps the public education of driving carefully has taken effective and thus the consciousness of observing traffic regulations has been enhanced. In sum, the lowered accident rate is not necessary caused by road improvement.

Even though the road improvement does play a primary role in the drop of Butler's accident rate, another assumption upon which the argument rests is that the condition of Prunty is similar in every aspect with Butler so that Butler's experience can be used for reference. However, the arguer fails to provide sufficient evidence for this assumption. Perhaps, the Prunty's road condition is already excellent enough--wide lane and smooth surface—that it needs no further improvement. It is also possible that the education level of Prunty's citizens is much lower than Butler's and it is this portion of people who cause majority of accidents. Or Prunty’s citizens are inclined to drink beer and thus have a higher percentage of drunk drivers than Butler. With no relevant information, it is a hasty assumption that the effective measure of Butler’s would also take effect in Prunty.

Besides, the arguer also mentions that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit, which cannot exclude the possibility that it is the over speed that contributes most to high accident rate. Maybe if Prunty County implements strictly the new speed limitation, the accident rate will decrease as safety effort failed not because the wrong speed limitation but because it is not strictly executed.

Overall, the reasoning behind the suggestion of completing the road improvement project which Butler County did seems logical as presented above. Yet, before any final decisions are made, the officials of Prunty should evaluate all possible alternatives and causes for the fall of Butler’s accident rate and the extent of similarity between the two counties.