argument18 修改稿，如蒙不弃，史徒大人帮我再看一眼

fainting_robinUID: 2336582

参考了XMUBIT提供的提纲以及关于攻击顺序的建议&针对scenty 的批评：没有说服力，进行修改后的第一稿。
TOPIC: ARGUMENT18 - The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper. "In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago:increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."

Giving some facts and some assumptions, the author raises a recommendation that Prunty Country（PC） should restore speed limit to 55mph and undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler Country（BC） completed 5years ago. The recommendation seems somewhat convincing at the first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers from several flaws.

To begin with, the conclusion that PC’s current safety effort has failed is still questionable. Given that most divers are exceeding the limit, the restriction might not be implemented completely and effectively, without a heavy punishment. In this case, we can not conclude that the new speed limit is not able to play the role of reducing accidents. On the contrary, the accident rate is probable to decrease significantly, if the new speed limit is strictly carried out with seriously punishment. Further, there are other causations of the exceeding behavior not related to the limit itself. It is entirely possibly that drivers in PC are not informed of the new speed limit in time or not used to it; and they break the limit unintentionally.[ (In a word, actually the new speed limit does not work till now, how can we expect its effect on decreasing the accident rate?) Should I end this paragraph with the sentence above or continue with the following? Does the following seem superfluous?]Even though, the new limit might have some effects. Considered that   the author does not tell us how much the average exceeding speed is, maybe it is just a little more than 45 mph, like 46.7, far away from 55 mph. If true, the limit works; yet some other factors would affect the accident rate on the contradicting way. For example, PC may be under rainy or foggy weather, which would enhance the chance for car accident, during the period of new speed limit; although the speed limit works effectively, the accident rate would just turn out to be a slight decrease. Thus, without excluding other possibilities, the author can not convince us of the failure of the new speed limit.

Secondly, the assumption that road improvement in BC is successful is open to doubt. The 25 fewer accident reports may due to many factors. First, it is entirely possible that the accidents records does not equal with the reality due to people’s unwillingness of contacts with policemen. Then the recorded rate may not actually reflect the traffic condition of BC.  Moreover, the case may be that: there are less cars driving on the roads of Butler Country, due to the emigration of resident, or a tendency in local people walking to job or working at home; and less heavy traffic may result in fewer accidents. Last, I concede that the improving measures might works for a few years after taken, however, since 5years passed by, the traffic condition is entirely possible worsen than before. If true, the measures are not relevant to the reduction of accidents in BC this past year.

Last but not least, assuming that BC’s measures were once effective, it is still too rash to implement them in PC. The author does not supply us with details about the road conditions in PC. It is entirely possible that there are not many narrow lanes to broaden or tough road to resurface; thus the road improvement may just be a waste of money. Further, there may be old warning signs and broken traffic lights, which are more urgent and necessary to improve, instead of the road conditions. In a word, the author can not convince us that the measures are necessary and useful on lowering accident incidence in PC, before giving a detailed comparison between BC’s traffic conditions and PC’s. Finally, the author ignore other alternatives to improve the traffic safety, such as arrange more regular patrols along the main roads, set unqualified drivers to professional training, carry out strict laws against driving in drunk. Therefore, only through analyzing the causes of accidents, can the author point out an efficient solution to improve the safety.

Summarily, the author’s argument is flawed by illogical reasoning as I mentioned above. People in PC must make decisions on their own, provided with information about accurate effect of the new speed limit and more details about BC’s measures, whether or not restore the limit and undertake the road improvement.






[ 本帖最后由 fainting_robin 于 2008-3-9 20:22 编辑 ]

fainting_robinUID: 2336582

才发现使徒大人竟然帮我改了原来的帖子。。。都怪我重写之前没去再看一眼orz。。。

xmubitUID: 2362643

Giving some facts and some assumptions, the author raises a recommendation that Prunty Country（PC） should restore speed limit to 55mph and undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler Country（BC） completed 5years ago. The recommendation seems somewhat convincing at the first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers from several flaws.

To begin with, the conclusion that PC’s current safety effort has failed is still questionable. [Given that most diversare exceeding the limit, the restriction might not be implemented completely and effectively, without a heavy punishment. Although given the fact that most drivers are exceeding the limit, we still cannot take the author’s opinion too seriously for that the restriction might not be implemented completely and effectively. For instance, maybe the traffic condition is not under strict surveillance or most ecdemic drivers have not been aware of the implement of this regulation yet.] In this case, we can not conclude that the new speed limit is not able to play the role of reducing accidents. On the contrary, the accident rate is probable to decrease significantly, if the new speed limit is strictly carried out with seriously punishment. Further, there are other causations of the exceeding behavior not related to the limit itself. It is entirely possibly that drivers in PC are not informed of the new speed limit in time or not used to it; and they break the limit unintentionally.[ (In a word, actually the new speed limit does not work till now, how can we expect its effect on decreasing the accident rate?)Should I end this paragraph with the sentence above or continue with the following? Does the following seem superfluous?][下面一段对于超速程度的讨论还是有必要的，但不要过分拘泥于数字本身，重点在于说明slightly excessive speed does not deteriorates road safety in PC at all.    In fact, there may be other potential factors which should be blamed for the accidents happened on PC’s roads. For example.. 接着这一段最后的论述 ]Even though, the new limit might have some effects. Considered that   the author does not tell us how much the average exceeding speed is, maybe it is just a little more than 45 mph, like 46.7, far away from 55 mph. If true, the limit works; yet some other factors would affect the accident rate on the contradicting way.[ ] For example, PC may be under rainy or foggy weather, which would enhance the chance for car accident, during the period of new speed limit; although the speed limit works effectively, the accident rate would just turn out to be a slight decrease. Thus, without excluding other possibilities, the author can not convince us of the failure of the new speed limit.

Secondly, the assumption that road improvement in BC is successful is open to doubt[. The 25 fewer accident reports may due to many factors.这种表述方法把自己后续的攻击方向给限定住了 for that 25 fewer accidents reported is not persuadable enough alone to draw the supposition. ]First, it is entirely possible that the accidents records does not equal with the reality due to people’s unwillingness of contacts with policemen. Then the recorded rate may not actually reflect the traffic condition of BC.  Moreover, the case may be that: there are less cars driving on the roads of Butler Country, due to the emigration of resident, or a tendency in local people walking to job or working at home; and less heavy traffic may result in fewer accidents. [Last, I concede that the improving measures might works for a few years after taken, however, since 5years passed by, the traffic condition is entirely possible worsen than before. If true, the measures are not relevant to the reduction of accidents in BC [this during the] past year. 这儿思维有些过于跳跃了。在改造五年后道路状况变差的情况下交通事故仍然有大幅度下降，这不是更说明拓宽道路增加车道是有效的吗 Finally, we cannot deny the possibility that road condition in BC is good enough while investing a great many of money in widening lanes’ width and smoothing road’s surface is a waste of money. In fact, BC’s policemen should be praised for their hard working on roads to make all drivers happy driving in BC area.]

Last but not least, assuming that BC’s measures [were once effective 上面一段已经论证了BC的措施对于BC交通安全的作用，那么这里完全可以彻底地让步are really effectively performed in BC], it is still too rash to implement them in PC. The author does not supply us with details about the road conditions in PC. It is entirely possible that there are not many narrow lanes to broaden or tough road to resurface; thus the road improvement may just be a waste of money. [Further, there may be old warning signs and broken traffic lights, which are more urgent and necessary to improve, instead of the road conditions.这一点应该归于下面一段关于other alternatives to improve the traffic safety的讨论 ][In a word, the author can not convince us that the measures are necessary and useful on lowering accident incidence in PC, before giving a detailed comparison between BC’s traffic conditions and PC’s 这一句没有太大的必要，另外上面关于BC、PC两地差异的论述有些薄弱，可以再添加一点 What’s more, we should take the two cities’ economic condition into consideration. It is possible that improving road condition may be abandoned for want of funds in PC forcing the government to carry out other feasible alternatives to improve the traffic safety, such as ….  由此把这一段原先剩下的部分接上来]. Finally, the author ignore other alternatives to improve the traffic safety, such as arrange more regular patrols along the main roads, set unqualified drivers to professional training, carry out strict laws against driving in drunk. Therefore, only through analyzing the causes of accidents, can the author point out an efficient solution to improve the safety.

Summarily, the author’s argument is flawed by illogical reasoning as I mentioned above. People in PC must make decisions on their own, provided with information about accurate effect of the new speed limit and more details about BC’s measures, whether or not restore the limit and undertake the road improvement.

good work!!!
add oill  :)

[ 本帖最后由 xmubit 于 2008-3-11 18:56 编辑 ]

fainting_robinUID: 2336582

Giving some facts and some assumptions, the author raises a recommendation that Prunty Country（PC） should restore speed limit to 55mph and undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler Country（BC） completed 5years ago. The recommendation seems somewhat convincing at the first glance; however, further scrutiny reveals that the argument suffers from several flaws.

To begin with, the conclusion that PC’s current safety effort has failed is still questionable. [Given that most divers are exceeding the limit, the restriction might not be implemented completely and effectively, without a heavy punishment. Although given the fact that most drivers are exceeding the limit, we still cannot take the author’s opinion too seriously for that the restriction might not be implemented completely and effectively. For instance, maybe the traffic condition is not under strict surveillance or most ecdemic drivers have not been aware of the implement of this regulation yet.] In this case, we can not conclude that the new speed limit is not able to play the role of reducing accidents. On the contrary, the accident rate is probable to decrease significantly, if the new speed limit is strictly carried out with seriously punishment. Further, there are other causations of the exceeding behavior not related to the limit itself. It is entirely possibly that drivers in PC are not informed of the new speed limit in time or not used to it; and they break the limit unintentionally. 下面一段对于超速程度的讨论还是有必要的，但不要过分拘泥于数字本身，重点在于说明slightly excessive speed does not deteriorates road safety in PC at all.    In fact, there may be other potential factors which should be blamed for the accidents happened on PC’s roads. For example.. 接着这一段最后的论述 ]Even though, the new limit might have some effects. Considered that   the author does not tell us how much the average exceeding speed is, maybe it is just a little more than 45 mph, like 46.7, far away from 55 mph. If true, the limit works; yet some other factors would affect the accident rate on the contradicting way.[ ] For example, PC may be under rainy or foggy weather, which would enhance the chance for car accident, during the period of new speed limit; although the speed limit works effectively, the accident rate would just turn out to be a slight decrease. Thus, without excluding other possibilities, the author can not convince us of the failure of the new speed limit.Secondly, the assumption that road improvement in BC is successful is open to doubt[. The 25 fewer accident reports may due to many factors.这种表述方法把自己后续的攻击方向给限定住了 for that 25 fewer accidents reported is not persuadable enough alone to draw the supposition. ]First, it is entirely possible that the accidents records does not equal with the reality due to people’s unwillingness of contacts with policemen. Then the recorded rate may not actually reflect the traffic condition of BC.  Moreover, the case may be that: there are less cars driving on the roads of Butler Country, due to the emigration of resident, or a tendency in local people walking to job or working at home; and less heavy traffic may result in fewer accidents. [Last, I concede that the improving measures might works for a few years after taken, however, since 5years passed by, the traffic condition is entirely possible worsen than before. If true, the measures are not relevant to the reduction of accidents in BC [this during the] past year.我这里的表述其实是因为5年时间的损耗，即使当初维修改善了路况，现在路况可能比维修前更差，那样，事故下降就不能归于路况。（我应该把损耗这一概念明确提出）这儿思维有些过于跳跃了。在改造五年后道路状况变差的情况下交通事故仍然有大幅度下降，这不是更说明拓宽道路增加车道是有效的吗 Finally, we cannot deny the possibility that road condition in BC is good enough while investing a great many of money in widening lanes’ width and smoothing road’s surface is a waste of money. In fact, BC’s policemen should be praised for their hard working on roads to make all drivers happy driving in BC area.]这样的它例表述是否有问题？因为并没有证据证明一定是警察的功劳，所以最好把should换成MayLast but not least, assuming that BC’s measures [were once effective 上面一段已经论证了BC的措施对于BC交通安全的作用，那么这里完全可以彻底地让步承接上文文末的思路，我没选择完全让步。are really effectively performed in BC], it is still too rash to implement them in PC. The author does not supply us with details about the road conditions in PC. It is entirely possible that there are not many narrow lanes to broaden or tough road to resurface; thus the road improvement may just be a waste of money. [Further, there may be old warning signs and broken traffic lights, which are more urgent and necessary to improve, instead of the road conditions.这一点应该归于下面一段关于other alternatives to improve the traffic safety的讨论 ][In a word, the author can not convince us that the measures are necessary and useful on lowering accident incidence in PC, before giving a detailed comparison between BC’s traffic conditions and PC’s 这一句没有太大的必要，另外上面关于BC、PC两地差异的论述有些薄弱，可以再添加一点 What’s more, we should take the two cities’ economic condition into consideration. It is possible that improving road condition may be abandoned for want of funds in PC forcing the government to carry out other feasible alternatives to improve the traffic safety, such as ….  由此把这一段原先剩下的部分接上来这个建议赞^^]. Finally, the author ignore other alternatives to improve the traffic safety, such as arrange more regular patrols along the main roads, set unqualified drivers to professional training, carry out strict laws against driving in drunk. Therefore, only through analyzing the causes of accidents, can the author point out an efficient solution to improve the safety.Summarily, the author’s argument is flawed by illogical reasoning as I mentioned above. People in PC must make decisions on their own, provided with information about accurate effect of the new speed limit and more details about BC’s measures, whether or not restore the limit and undertake the road improvement.
红笔部分是我对建议的反馈：）

[ 本帖最后由 fainting_robin 于 2008-3-14 19:55 编辑 ]

xmubitUID: 2362643

采取不完全让步也是可行的。可能是我自个儿习惯了每个大点之间的完全让步吧，感觉这样比较过瘾的说：）
yatou继续add oil！:)