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TOPIC: ARGUMENT51 - The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
WORDS: 431 TIME: 00:35:57 DATE: 2008-7-18 PM 05:08:05
This argument concludes that all patients with muscle strain should take antibiotics to prevent secondary infections. To support this conclusion, the arguer quotes the following study: with comparing two groups, first group uses antibiotics and the other uses sugar pills, the researchers find that patients in first group cure sooner. However, after carefully scrutinized, this study is too vague and questionable to lend enough support to the conclusion.
In the first place, a assumption upon which this conclusion depends is that secondary infections must occur. But the arguer offers no information about secondary infections, such as the percentage of occurring. Lacking such evidence, it's equally that little patients with muscle strain encounter secondary infections. For that matter, taking antibiotics may be not very necessary. In short, without providing more detailed information about secondary infections, the arguer can not make me bolster his conclusion.
In the second place, the study cited in this argument has a series of doubtful points. First, the details like number, age, healthy condition of the respondents in this study is known. So for example, if the number is small, how can the result in this study reflect the whole situations of all patients? Also the patients in first group taking antibiotics may have sound bodies, which can also cause the result of this survey. Besides, the arguer doesn't tell anything about these two doctors. Generally speaking, a special sports doctor may be well at treating muscle strain than a general physician, which may affect the result, but the arguer fails to consider this. Without considering and ruling out these alternative possible conditions, the arguer can not demonstrate his conclusion.
Last but not least, the arguer ignores some other factors which might undermine the credibility of his assertion. For instance, whether sugar pills can influence the treatment of muscle strain or not is unknown. Perhaps, sugar pills take a negative effect to the recuperation. Moreover, the arguer gives no data about the side effect of antibiotics. If the side effect is very significant, even antibiotics are effective to prevent secondary infections, we can not advise patients to take it.
In final analysis, as based on a host of unsounded assumptions or surveys, the conclusion can not be convincing as it stands. If the arguer wants to justify his assertion, he should know the probability of secondary infections among patients with muscle strain. When conduct a study, he should better choose doctors at similar lever and participants with the same features like age and health. Also different groups must take the same treatment except medicine in the same environment.
[ 本帖最后由 zoubin 于 2008-7-18 17:19 编辑 ] |
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