argument51 【7\8\9\10】AW作文小组 第二次作业

zoubinUID: 2501151

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 474          TIME: 00:34:50          DATE: 2008-7-20 PM 09:54:43

In this argument, the arguer claims that the global warming leads to the decline in arctic deer. In order to support the claim, the arguer quotes the following facts: (1) local hunters report that the number of arctic deer is decreasing; (2) this decrease coincides recent global warming. However, close scrutiny reveals that those facts can not lend sufficient support to the conclusion.

In the first place, a assumption upon which the claim depends is that the local temperature is increasing with global warming, whereas the arguer offers no evidence to show that. Lacking such evidence, it's equally that global warming has a little effect on local climate. In this case, the arguer's assertion may have a few values. Without considering and ruling out those possible alternative conditions, the arguer can not make me bolster his claim.

In the second place, the conclusion relies on another assumption that the deer populations are dropping. For demonstrating this assumption, the arguer cites reports from local hunters, but those reports have some doubtful points. The arguer does not tell us the detailed information about reports, such as the number of participated hunters and the reasons why they conclude there are less deer than ever before. If the arguer does not consider those problems, the reports can't be credible and therefore can't be for his claim.

Additionally, even we assume that the local temperature is increasing while the deer populations are decreasing, the arguer also assumes that there exits an exact causal relationship between the increase of temperature and the change of deer's migration patterns. But the arguer fails to substantiate this assumption. Perhaps, the local temperature increases insignificantly and then on the one hand this increase do benefit to provide more plants for arctic deer; while on the other hand, this little increase can still ensure that the ice can cover the sea which separates the islands at least in some years. For that matter, arctic deer can also keep their age-old migration patterns. In short, existing evidence given by the arguer can not warrant this assumption, let alone that support the conclusion.

Last but not least, the arguer fails to consider other factors which might undermine his claim. For instance, there are many hunters in Canada's arctic region who live on hunting arctic deer, which may also result in the decrease of deer. The explorations to arctic region bring lots of trash, which change the life patterns of deer and therefore cause decrease of deer.

To sum up, as based on a host of doubtful facts, the conclusion in this argument can't be convincing as it stands. If the arguer wants his claim to hold enough persuasion, he has to conduct a concrete survey about the local temperature and deer populations. The evidence that can prove the change of migration patterns of deer is also needed.

general727UID: 2494818

In this argument, the arguer claims that the global warming leads to the decline in arctic deer. In order to support the claim, the arguer quotes the following facts: (1) local hunters report that the number of arctic deer is decreasing; (2) this decrease coincides recent global warming. However, close scrutiny reveals that  those facts can not lend sufficient support to  the conclusion.

In the first place, an assumption upon which the claim depends is that the local temperature is increasing with global warming,(加个例子会好些 ) whereas the arguer offers no evidence to show that. Lacking such evidence, it's equally that global warming has a little effect on local climate. In this case, the arguer's assertion may have a few values. Without considering and ruling out those possible alternative conditions, the arguer cannot make me bolster his claim.

In the second place, the conclusion relies on another assumption that the deer populations are dropping. For demonstrating this assumption,  the arguer cites reports from local hunters, but those reports have some doubtful points. The arguer does not tell us the detailed information about reports, such as the number of participated hunters and the reasons why they conclude there are less deer than ever before. If the arguer does not consider those problems, the reports can't be credible and therefore can't be for his claim.

Additionally, even we assume that the local temperature is increasing while the deer populations are decreasing, the arguer also assumes that there exits an exact causal relationship between the increase of temperature and the change of deer's migration patterns. But the arguer fails to substantiate this assumption. Perhaps, the local temperature increases insignificantly and then on the one hand this increase do benefit to provide more plants for arctic deer（这个假设特别好，我要借用）; while on the other hand, this little increase can still ensure that the ice can cover the sea which separates the islands at least in some years. For that matter, arctic deer can also keep their age-old migration patterns. In short, existing evidence given by the arguer can not（cannot or can’t） warrant this assumption, let alone that support the conclusion.

Last but not least, the arguer fails to consider other factors which might undermine his claim . For instance, there are many hunters in Canada's arctic region who live on hunting arctic deer, which may also result in the decrease of deer. The explorations to arctic region bring lots of trash（noxious waste like exhausted batteries, radioactive instruments 这样写会形象一点）, which change the life patterns of deer and therefore cause decrease of deer.

To sum up, as based on a host of doubtful facts, the conclusion in this argument can't be convincing as it stands. If the arguer wants his claim to hold enough persuasion, he has to conduct a concrete survey  about the local temperature and deer populations. The evidence that can prove the change of migration patterns of deer is also

笔者的思路很清晰，建议段与段间加些过渡，在攻击点上和可多加一些细节或是举例，不然有点太模式化了

Add oil!

[ 本帖最后由 general727 于 2008-7-23 17:01 编辑 ]