argument239 【challenge yourself小组】第3次作业 by infant~

infant~UID: 2242949

TOPIC: ARGUMENT239 - The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.

"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."
WORDS: 466          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-7-27 9:42:01

In this editorial, the author recommends that Dalton adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did four month ago in order to lower its crime rates and protect minors from crime. To support this recommendation, the author points out the Williamsville's reported youth crime rate has decreased since the curfew. Careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several critical problems, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, a "reported" lower crime rate does not support the assumption that the actual crime rate has decreased since the curfew policy. Perhaps residents near the town square have less access to report crime due to media shift. Or perhaps residents abandoned the town square since the curfew. In these cases, the actual crime rate may have be stable or even increasing.

Secondly, the author unfairly assumes that decrease in youth crime rate is caused by the curfew policy, yet the mere fact that the policy was carried out before the decrease in youth crime rate does not necessarily establish a causal relationship between these two. It is possible that the decrease is due to stronger legislation enforcement or a sudden demographic shift of youth. Given this or other possibilities, the author's reasoning can be fallacious.

Thirdly, the author rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that the town of Dalton and Williamsville are sufficiently alike in ways that might affect the effectiveness of curfew on juvenile delinquency. Perhaps juvenile delinquency in Dalton does not generally happen in the arranged hours of the curfew. Or perhaps Dalton has a weaker legislation enforcement thereby the policy cannot be effectively carried out. In short, lacking evidence that the conditions in Dalton and Williamsville are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me on the basis of Williamsville's experience that the proposed course of action would be effective in attaining Dalton's goal.

Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the author also overlooks possible factors other than juvenile delinquency that might contribute to the overall crime rates of Dalton. Perhaps Dalton's crime are largely committed by adults rather than youths. In that case, a marked decrease in youth crime rate would lend little help to the decrease of overall crime rates in Dalton.

To sum up, the author fails to adequately support the recommendation that Dalton should adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did. To strengthen it, the author must provide evidence that the youth crime rates actually dropped in Williamsville, that the curfew policy is responsible for this drop, and that the same policy will also be effective for Dalton. To better assess it, more information should also be provided about the constitution of Dalton's crimes, and the portion of juvenile delinquency in the whole crime rates.

[ 本帖最后由 infant~ 于 2008-7-27 21:05 编辑 ]

qilluraUID: 2186638

In this editorial, the author recommends that Dalton adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did four month ago in order to lower its crime rates and protect minors from crime. To support this recommendation, the author points out the Williamsville's reported youth crime rate has decreased since the curfew. Careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several critical problems, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, a "reported" lower crime rate does not support the assumption that the actual crime rate has decreased since the curfew policy. Perhaps residents near the town square have less access to report crime due to media shift（是汇报给police啦）. Or perhaps residents abandoned the town square since the curfew. In these cases, the actual crime rate may have be（en） stable or even increasing.

Secondly, the author unfairly assumes that （the）decrease in youth crime rate is caused by the curfew policy, yet the mere fact that the policy was carried out before the decrease in youth crime rate does not necessarily establish a causal relationship between these two. It is possible that the decrease is due to stronger legislation enforcement or a sudden demographic shift of youth. Given this（these） or other possibilities, the author's reasoning can be fallacious.

Thirdly, the author rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that the town of Dalton and Williamsville are sufficiently alike in ways that might affect the effectiveness of curfew on juvenile delinquency. Perhaps juvenile delinquency in Dalton does not generally happen in the arranged hours of the curfew. Or perhaps Dalton has a weaker legislation enforcement thereby the policy cannot be effectively carried out. In short, lacking evidence that the conditions in Dalton and Williamsville are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me on the basis of Williamsville's experience that the proposed course of action would be effective in attaining Dalton's goal.

Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the author also overlooks possible factors other than juvenile delinquency that might contribute to the overall crime rates of Dalton. Perhaps Dalton's crime are largely committed by adults rather than youths. In that case, a marked decrease in youth crime rate would lend little help to the decrease of overall crime rates in Dalton.

To sum up, the author fails to adequately support the recommendation that Dalton should adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did. To strengthen it, the author must provide evidence that the youth crime rates actually dropped in Williamsville, that the curfew policy is responsible for this drop, and that the same policy will also be effective for Dalton. To better assess it, more information should also be provided about the constitution of Dalton's crimes, and the portion of juvenile delinquency in the whole crime rates.

（没什么问题拉～豆豆好牛～牛牛～）

xomaeUID: 2468629

In this editorial, the author recommends that Dalton (should) adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did four month ago in order to lower its crime rates and protect minors from crime. To support this recommendation, the author points out the Williamsville's reported youth crime rate has decreased since the curfew. Careful scrutiny of the argument reveals several critical problems, which render it unpersuasive as it stands.

First of all, a "reported" lower crime rate does not support the assumption that the actual crime rate has decreased since the curfew policy. Perhaps residents near the town square have less access to report crime due to media shift. Or perhaps residents abandoned the town square since the curfew. In these cases, the actual crime rate may have be stable or even increasing.

Secondly, the author unfairly assumes that decrease in youth crime rate is caused by the curfew policy, yet the mere fact that the policy was carried out before the decrease in youth crime rate does not necessarily establish a causal relationship between these two. It is possible that the decrease is due to stronger legislation enforcement or a sudden demographic shift of youth. Given this or other possibilities, the author's reasoning can be fallacious.

Thirdly, the author rests on the unsubstantiated assumption that the town of Dalton and Williamsville are sufficiently alike in ways that might affect the effectiveness of curfew on juvenile delinquency(没太看懂，什么影响到了宵禁的效力). Perhaps juvenile delinquency in Dalton does not generally happen in the arranged hours of the curfew. Or perhaps Dalton has a weaker legislation enforcement thereby the policy cannot be effectively carried out. In short, lacking evidence that the conditions in Dalton and Williamsville are relevantly similar, the author cannot convince me on the basis of Williamsville's experience that the proposed course of action would be effective in attaining Dalton's goal.
质疑D的法律效力这个点很经典


Finally, even if the author can substantiate the foregoing assumptions, the author also overlooks possible factors other than juvenile delinquency that might contribute to the overall crime rates of Dalton. Perhaps Dalton's crime are largely committed by adults rather than youths. In that case, a marked decrease in youth crime rate would lend little help to the decrease of overall crime rates in Dalton.

To sum up, the author fails to adequately support the recommendation that Dalton should adopt the same curfew policy as Williamsville did. To strengthen it, the author must provide evidence that the youth crime rates actually dropped in Williamsville, that the curfew policy is responsible for this drop, and that the same policy will also be effective for Dalton. To better assess it, more information should also be provided about the constitution of Dalton's crimes, and the portion of juvenile delinquency in the whole crime rates.

为什么我的句子错误哪么多 :(

[ 本帖最后由 xomae 于 2008-7-29 21:30 编辑 ]