Argument 20 【7\8\9\10】 7.29 第九次作业

atreusUID: 2471951

Argument 20: The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
“The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island ‘s six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau’s town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.”

The recommendation to the editor suggests limiting the number of mopeds rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in order to reduce the accidents cases. To corroborate the recommendation the arguer cites the similar measures enforced by the neighboring island of Torseau, which attain the half reduction in moped accidents last year. The recommendation is specious on several grounds.

The threshold problem with the argument involving the assumption that the summer season is the time most mopeds and pedestrians accidents happened in the Balmer Island and the increased population cause the accidents increased. Yet the argument fails to substantiate this assumption. The citation of population increasing to 100000 during the summer months is no the evidence to prove the relative increasing accidents are reported, it is possible that the mopeds and pedestrians accidents happening time are irrelative with the seasons. The direct correlation between the population in summer and accidents does not necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is a strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. Lacking the evidence that the customers visited to the Balmer Island are constitutes great number of the population of the island in the summer time, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the increased population in summer is the contributing cause of increased accidents.

Second, even if assuming the summer season is the peak time of accidents, the measures of limiting the number of rentals could do not helpful to reduce the accidents. Comparing with the great demand of customers in the summer season, the limitation the number of mopeds rented by each of the island six companies is futile. Maybe the companies who rent the mopeds to customers are careless about the safe situation without safeguard such as helmets and warning signs. Moreover, common sense informs me that regulation and situation of the traffic might explain the accidents cases. Without considering and ruling out alternative reasons for this fact, the argument’s recommendation that limiting the rental mopeds numbers to reduce the accidents is indefensible.

Finally, even if the town council limiting the number of rentals are necessary to a achieve the goal of accident reduction, it is entirely possible that the measures the Balmer Island take would not suffice to ensure similar result of 50 percent reduction is moped accidents. Due to the sorts of factors such as good regulation and traffic situation that might have contributed to the success of the Toreau, but the desirable attainment would not come into realize in the Balmer Island.

In sum, the measure of limiting the numbers of rental similar to Torseau would not ensure the Balmer Island moped accidents reduce. To convince the editor, the arguer should provide evidence that the increased customers in summer contribute the accidents increasing. To bolster the recommendation, we need more information about other factors which would cause the accidents and the situation in Torseau.

DemiquaverUID: 203651

先请问，是不是在30分钟内限时写完的啊？我至今还无法成功限时，那个急啊。看到人家都比我写的好，而且个个限时，我那个更急啊……:mad: :mad: :mad:

谈一点拙见吧：

第二段中，感觉逻辑上有点跳。原文的逻辑是夏天岛上人多，租车的也多，限制出租数量，减少事故。你的逻辑是岛上人多和事故多没关系，把中间的环节跳掉了。是否可以从这个角度分析，使逻辑缜密些：夏天人多，租车多，但没有证据证明事故大多数都发生在夏天。而且你第三段的第一句其实就是表达了这个逻辑。

第四段中，提到了可能其他的原因会产生事故，但没有分析，只是点到为止，好像还不够有力。另外这两个原因在上一段的moreover中已经提到过了。

The recommendation to the editor suggests limiting the number of mopeds rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day in order to reduce the accidents cases. To corroborate the recommendation the arguer cites the similar measures enforced by the neighboring island of Torseau（好像多了个is）, which attain the half reduction in moped accidents last year. The recommendation is specious on several grounds.

The threshold problem with the argument involving the assumption that the summer season is the time most mopeds and pedestrians accidents happened in the Balmer Island and the increased population cause the accidents increased. Yet the argument fails to substantiate this assumption. The citation of population increasing to 100000 during the summer months is no the evidence to prove the relative increasing accidents are reported（这里的先行词好像不能少，要么省are）, it is possible that the mopeds and pedestrians accidents happening time are irrelative with the seasons. The direct correlation between the population in summer and accidents does not necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is a strong eviadence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. Lacking the evidence that the customers visited to（可省） the Balmer Island are constitutes great number of the population of the island in the summer time, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the increased population in summer is the contributing cause of increased accidents.

Second, even if assuming the summer season is the peak time of accidents, the measures of limiting the number of rentals could do（？？？） not （be）helpful to reduce the accidents（建议最好用may等比较委婉的说法，太绝对的说法也是漏洞）. Comparing with the great demand of customers in the summer season, the limitation the number of（？？？） mopeds rented by each of the island six companies is futile. Maybe the companies who rent the mopeds to customers are careless about the safe situation without safeguard such as helmets and warning signs. Moreover, common sense informs me that regulation and situation of the traffic might explain the accidents cases. Without considering and ruling out alternative reasons for this fact, the argument’s recommendation that limiting the rental mopeds numbers to reduce the accidents is indefensible.

Finally, even if the town council's limiting the number of rentals are（is）necessary to a（省） achieve the goal of accident reduction, it is entirely possible that the measures the Balmer Island take would not suffice to ensure similar result of 50 percent reduction is（in？） moped accidents. Due to the sorts of factors such as good regulation and traffic situation that might have contributed to the success of the Toreau, but the desirable attainment would not come into realize in the Balmer Island.

In sum, the measure of limiting the numbers of rental similar to Torseau would not ensure the Balmer Island moped accidents reduce. To convince the editor, the arguer should provide evidence that the increased customers in summer contribute the accidents increasing. To bolster the recommendation, we need more information about other factors which would cause the accidents and the situation in Torseau.