argument65 【today is the day】第三次作业 by revealing

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

In this memo, the president of the cheese stores attempts to conclude that the best way to improve profits is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To justify the claim, the president cites the survey conducted by Cheeses of the World magazine. Moreover, the president points out that last year the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses. As it stands, the argument is well-presented but not thoroughly well-reasoned.

To begin with, it is obviously that the survey which indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses quoted in the argument is too vague to be informative. We are told nothing about more details. The argument does not indicate where the survey was conducted. The president's stores are located throughout the United States, while it is entirely possible that the survey is in the range of all over the world, because the magazine is called Cheeses of the World. How about the situation in the United States? Thus, there is no sign of the procedure for random sampling and we have good reasons to suspect if the survey is representative enough. Besides, how many people read the magazine indeed? Perhaps few do. Therefore, the survey is unreliable. In fact, in the case of limited evidence, we cannot draw any conclusion at all.

In addition, even if the survey is valid, it is hard to come to the conclusion either. The argument is unwarranted because of a hasty generalization. There is no evidence that to discontinue stocking imported cheeses in all stores and to concentrate on domestic ones is the best way to improve profits. The sail amount is also an important factor. The price of material and traffic cannot be ignored either. Therefore, without considering and ruling out alternative explanations, the president cannot convince us the conclusion.

Last but not least, the president omits several other factors which might weaken the argument. The president fails to establish a causal relationship between the fact that five best-selling cheeses were all domestic ones and the preference for domestic cheeses among consumers. The president ignores the possibility that all kinds of cheese-including domestic one and imported one-were seldom sold out, but the five sorts had a slightly better condition. Or perhaps the sales of other brands of domestic cheeses were far less than the imported ones. Moreover, the result was only in the newest store and was not representative enough to all stores of the chain.

To sum up, the argument, while it seems logical at the first glance, has several other flaws mentioned above. To strengthen the argument, the president would have to provide more representative survey. To better evaluate the argument, we should need more information about other possible aspects.

[ 本帖最后由 revealing 于 2008-8-4 20:32 编辑 ]