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crazymarbury
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发表于 2008-8-5 17:17:06 |显示全部楼层

TOPIC: ARGUMENT123 - The following appeared in a health newsletter.

"Eating a heavy meal may increase the risk of heart attack. A recent survey of 2,000 people who had had a heart attack revealed that 158 of them said they had eaten a heavy meal within 24 hours before their heart attack, and 25 of them said they had eaten a heavy meal within 2 hours before their heart attack. Eating and digesting food releases hormones into the bloodstream and temporarily increases heart rate and blood pressure slightly. Both of these things put stress on the heart. Therefore, people who are at risk of having a heart attack can lower that risk by not overeating."
WORDS: 452 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-8-5 14:07:37

In this argument, the author claims that a heavy meal may increase the risk of heart attack. To support his conclusion, the author cites the following facts: (1) a survey shows the correlation between heart attack and a heavy meal (2) possible stress put on the heart by eating and digesting food. Close scrutiny of these supporting evidence, however, reveals that the assertion relies on series of unwarranted assumption, which render it untenable as it stands.

To begin with, the author warns that a heavy meal will put stress on heart. Yet the author doe not provide a scientific definition of “heavy meal”. It seems that the definition of “heavy meal” varies from on to another, which means to some people, their heavy meal may be not enough to others. With such a dubious definition, it is really hard to convince me the accuracy of the survey. Moreover, the author should show that 2000 people polled constitute a sufficiently large sample of millions of people who has suffered from heart attack worldwide. Otherwise, the author cannot confidently draw any general conclusion about the risk of heart attack brought by a heavy meal.

Besides, even by assuming the survey is statistically reliable, the author fails to substantiate correlation between heart attack and heavy meal. According to the survey, The hormones released by eating and digesting, which will only bring temporarily increase heart rate and blood pressure slightly according to the article, will not have a long-time effect or serious effect on heart. Furthermore, only less than 10 percent of people who had heart attack seem to be affected by heavy meal. It just might be a coincidence. So without sufficient evidence to prove the correlation with heart attack and heavy meal, the author cannot hastily draw such a conclusion.

Finally, even assuming that there is a connection between heart attack and heavy meal, it does not necessarily mean that the correlation turns out to causal relation. While a high correlation is strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not enough. The author should account for many other possibilities leading to heart attack, such as genetic propensity, the amount of exercises, the living condition, the food the respondents eat, and so forth. Without ruling out a kaleidoscope of equally possible factors, the author fails to consolidate the causal relation between heart attack and heavy meal.

In sum, the conclusion is not only logically unsound but also lack sufficient facts. To strengthen the argument, the author should assure me that the statistical reliability of the survey and the direct causal relation between heavy meal and heart attack. To better assess the author's view point, more information is needed to rule out many other possible factors of causing heart attack.

[ 本帖最后由 crazymarbury 于 2008-8-5 18:36 编辑 ]