argument20 【today is the day小组】第7次作业 by woyun

woyunUID: 2522051

20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the town council of Balmer island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. To support the conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that neighboring island of Torseau achieved the reduction after its town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals. In addition, the arguer reasons that it is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction if this measure is taken. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

To begin with, the argument provides no evidence that the mopeds accidents are mostly caused by the rented mopeds. It is possible that an overwhelming majority of the mopeds are privates ones which are the major cause of the accidents. For example, there are 300 mopeds everyday in Balmer Island and among them only 20 accidents are caused by the rented mopeds. In this circumstance, to limit the number of mopeds rented may not reduce the number of accidents and more attention should be paid on the private mopeds.

Even assuming that the rented mopeds are the major cause of accidents, the arguer fails to prove that to limit the number of mopeds rented from 50 per say to 30 per day is reasonable. Perhaps each rental companies can only rent out 20 mopeds per day which are less than 30. That is to say it fails to reduce the number of mopeds rented in each company in fact.

In addition, a correlation between the limit of rental mopeds and the decrease of accidents in the island of Torseau doesn't incur a casual relationship. It is possible that the decrease of accidents is due to the fact that it had rained or snowed heavily for a long time in Torseau which eliminate the number of people going out, therefore reducing the number of accidents. Perhaps certain other measures were taken in Torseau such as the limit of speed, improving the road condition, increasing the number of traffic lights and so forth.

Even if the reduction in the island of Torseau is because of the limit on mopeds rentals, the argument unfairly assumes that the same methods would work effectively similarly in the Balmer Island. Perhaps the roads in the island of Torseau are crowded with rentals while just a few in Balmer. It is also likely that there is no special area on the roads for the mopeds which is contrary to that in Balmer. In short, without accounting for possible differences between the two islands the arguer cannot convince me that his recommendation for Balmer is sound.

As it stands, the argument id not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to provide more information about the mopeds in Balmer including the specific number of accidents and the number of moped rented in each company. Additionally, the arguer would have to rule out other possibilities that may affect the number of accidents in the island of Torseau and justify the conditions of the two islands are similar enough.

revealingUID: 2507748

20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the town council of Balmer island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day to reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. To support the conclusion, the arguer provides the evidence that neighboring island of Torseau achieved the reduction after its town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals. In addition, the arguer reasons that it is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction if this measure is taken. This argument suffers from several critical fallacies.

To begin with, the argument provides no evidence that the mopeds accidents are mostly caused by the rented mopeds. It is possible that an overwhelming majority of the mopeds are privates ones which are the major cause of the accidents. For example, there are 300 mopeds accidents everyday in Balmer Island and among them only 20 accidents are caused by the rented mopeds. In this circumstance, to limit the number of mopeds rented may not reduce the number of accidents and more attention should be paid on the private mopeds.

Even assuming that the rented mopeds are the major causes of accidents, the arguer fails to prove that to limit the number of mopeds rented from 50 per say to 30 per day is reasonable. Perhaps each rental companies can only rent out 20 mopeds per day which are less than 30. That is to say it fails to reduce the number of mopeds rented in each company in fact. 这个我倒没想过，挺好的驳斥

In addition, a correlation between the limit of rental mopeds and the decrease of accidents in the island of Torseau doesn't incur a casual relationship. It is possible that the decrease of accidents is due to the fact that it had rained or snowed heavily for a long time in Torseau which eliminate the number of people going out, therefore reducing the number of accidents. Perhaps certain other measures were taken in Torseau such as the limit of speed, improving the road condition, increasing the number of traffic lights and so forth.

Even if the reduction in the island of Torseau is because of the limit on mopeds rentals, the argument unfairly assumes that the same methods would work effectively similarly in the Balmer Island. Perhaps the roads in the island of Torseau are crowded with rentals while just a few in Balmer. It is also likely that there is no special area on the roads for the mopeds which is contrary to that in Balmer. In short, without accounting for possible differences between the two islands the arguer cannot convince me that his recommendation for Balmer is sound.

As it stands, the argument id not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the arguer would have to provide more information about the mopeds in Balmer including the specific number of accidents and the number of moped rented in each company. Additionally, the arguer would have to rule out other possibilities that may affect the number of accidents in the island of Torseau and justify the conditions of the two islands are similar enough.

写得不错，真的没什么好改的：）