argument182 by poboso

pobosoUID: 2318913

182.Butter has now been replaced by margarine in Happy Pancake House
restaurants throughout the southwestern United States. Only about 2
percent of customers have complained, indicating that 98 people out of 100
are happy with the change. Furthermore, many servers have reported that a
number of customers who still ask for butter do not complain when they are
given margarine instead. Clearly, either these customers cannot
distinguish margarine from butter, or they use the term "butter" to refer
to either butter or margarine. Thus, to avoid the expense of purchasing
butter, the Happy Pancake House should extend this cost-saving change to
its restaurants in the southeast and northeast as well.

Happy Pancake
House在美国西南部的餐厅用人造黄油代替了天然黄油。只有大约2％的顾客曾经投诉，这说明100个人中有98人对于这种替换是乐于接受的。而且，很多服务生报告说很多仍然要了天然黄油的顾客在被给予人造黄油的时候并没有投诉。显然，这些顾客要么分不清天然黄油和人造黄油，要么是用"天然黄油"这个词汇来指天然黄油或人造黄油。因此，为避免购买天然黄油的花费，Happy
Pancake House应该把这项节省措施推广到在东南部以及东北部的餐厅。
提纲：1，about the first research, no sample number, 2 percent 的抱怨不代表98%的人都满意，可能不满意但是不好意思投诉
2，sencond research, is tit reoresentative?a number of customers 没有投诉证明有人投诉，也可能是发现了不是butter ，不满意，但是并没有投诉，而选择不再再此处就餐，继而影响营业额。
3，southwest的情况不可类推到southeast and north east.
In this argument, the arguer recommends that to avoid the expense of purchasing butter, the Happy Pancake House should replace butter by margarine in its restaurant in southeast and northeast.
First, the author deduces that 98 people out of 100 people are happy with the change. This deduction contains several critical flaws. The research has no number of the sample. The range it took is unknown, too. So if the research is representative for all areas of the southwestern US is unwarranted. What is more, that 2 percent of customers do not complain can not lead to the conclusion that the other people are happy with the change. It is not convincing unless the author rule out other possibilities, such as the changing ignorance of the customers, the unwillingness to show their unsatisfaction.
Second, the author shows another research that many servers report no complaints of the customers to validate his recommendation. The deduction is full of fallacies. Initially, the author equates the incidents reported with the incidents happened. There may be other customers complaining about the change whereas the server does not report. What goes next is that the customer who does not complain does not mean that they are happy with the change. It s quite possible that they choose to never come back instead of complaining about the change. Thus, the consequence is more severe. The decline of cost of purchasing butter is ambivalent.
Finally, the author make a simple analogue between the conditions of southwest and those of southeast and northeast. The latter, of course, has many different factors. As a common sense, there is no reason to equates one area with another. Unless the author presents more evidence will this analogue be more convincing.
In sum, the author roughly draw a conclusion that most customers are happy with the change and the company should expand the change in other areas. The argument lacks further evidence. In order to make it more convincing, the author should amend it as mentioned above.