Argument35【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第一周第一次作业 by daishuchen

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Argument35【0906G文以载道三月四月小组】第一周第一次作业 by daishuchen
Argument 35
The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
“Salicylates are the members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to food as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.”
水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物-阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中，食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。

1.       调查对象描述不够清晰,调查样本的代表性问题值得怀疑.
2.       头痛发病数量的下降可能不是或不仅仅是食物中水杨酸酯的作用,可能还有其他方面因素,比如经济生活水平的提高.
3.       即使水杨酸酯对头痛发病有影响，但不一定对Mentia居民有作用（同1 调察样本问题）
4.       新用途-食品香料和头痛症无必然联系.
5.       水杨酸酯可能有副作用,没有注意到.

In this argument, the author cites a study correlating the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches. The author also show a new use of salicylates recently found by food-processing companies as flavor additives for foods and according to which he draws the conclusion that this new use will make the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia continually increase. The argument suffers from some statistical and other problems and is therefore unpersuasive.

First, the twenty-year study has not convinced us that the participants are representative of the people in general of the states. It is likely that the participants in the study procedure are much healthier than other people and not susceptible to the headaches. Also we do not know the number of the participants. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that the sample number is insignificant. These statistical flaws have made the author’s conclusion unjustifiable.

Secondly, even if the study is statistically reliable, a direct correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and lower frequency of headaches doesn’t necessarily prove that the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidence of a causal relationship, in itself it is not sufficient. Many factors can lead to the decline in headaches number. As the economy is boost and life of citizen is improved, people have paid more attention to good health, so they do more exercise than before and take proper nutrition. Without ruling out these proper factors, we can not accept the notion that the use of salicylates causes the decrease number of headaches.

Thirdly, even if the use of salicylates and drop number of headaches are cause-and-effect relation, but perhaps the relation does not adapt to the citizen of Mentia, by the reason of unknown of the scope of the substrate in the investigation.

Fourthly, the author notes that the new use as flavor additives for foods can bring a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia. The two have no necessary correlation , perhaps the use as flavor is attributed to other purpose, without careful study about the connection between them ,we can not draw any conclusion about relativity of them.

Finally, the author has not made any mention of the side-effect of the salicylates. As all we know, any new hi-tech product is a sword with two edges, also is the medicine. Only after we study all  the functions and side-effect of salicylates thoroughly, we can agree to the author’s assertion.

In sum, the argument is dubious at best. Before I can accept its conclusion, it is must make sure that the study is statistically logical and representative. It must provide better evidence that the new use as flavor an decrease the number of headaches. To better evaluate the aegument I would need to know whether the salicylates has any side effect.

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