Argument70【六人作文小组】第3周第1次作业

空即是色UID: 2496914

Argument 70: study shows that 70% of traffic accidents, at least one driver involved is less than 10 miles from home when the accident occurs. This statistic indicates that drivers have a tendency to drive incautiously when they are close to home, probably because familiar surroundings give them a false sense of security. Thus, the places where people feel safest are the places where they are in fact at greatest risk of serious injury.
1、10公里，无证剧，survey
2、无证据导致不谨慎
3、最安全=最危险，草率推论
The argument is well-presented, but some facts are still questionable. According to an imprecise statistic that one or more drivers involve in accidents the author indicate that drivers drop in less carful sense when they are close to home and the places seem safe are opposed. I will discuss these doubtable inferences in turn.

The statistic about the place where accidents occur is less than 10 miles from home seems unreasonable. Without any evidence that the statistic is reliable, the author cannot rely on it to draw any firm conclusion about the distance. Depending on the total number of accidents here, the author fails to consider the statistic of traffic accidents are covered on the overall number. Also, it is possible that the total number of sample is small so that the statistic is not responsible of the accidents generally. Or the data of 10 miles distance is just a coincidence that the study picks up. Perhaps the method of the statistic is unconvinced that do not divide the drivers from their ages, sex, and experience. Thus, the statistic cannot explain the near home distance.

Even if the statistic is accepted, the argument remains questionable. The author fails to establish the relationship between incautious driving and accidents, and no direct data was provided to substantiate that incautious driving result in accidents. In addition, even though the incautious driving leads to the accidents, the reason which causes the tendency might be drink driving, or without road lights are on in the section of road, rather than the sense of security.


Finally, it is mentioned in the argument that the place where feels safe but actually fulfilled with danger. The author is too hastily to draw this conclusion. Even the fact that false sense provokes traffic accidents is true, it might be special fact unless the author offers more strong evidence to prove the assumption that safest places are greatest risk. And these two factors are not necessarily mutually exclusive alternatives. Some possibilities might exist, including worse condition of road, or the inexperienced driving skill. If the demand were as great as what the author claims, it seems when we stay at home or in office and such safe place must be in distress. Obviously it is impossible and unwarranted.

Overall, the argument assumes safe places are in fact with great risk because of a statistic on traffic accidents that occur near home and an incautious driving. To support this, the author must provide much more strong evidence to document the statistic is true and reasonable, and the relationship between incautious driving and accidents.