argument 65

janettaoweiUID: 2591384

Argument 65
提纲：
1，论据不具有代表性：5家新开的店不能代表所有的店的销售情况；杂志调查的对象不明确，如果仅调查一个地区的消费者不能代表所有的消费者
2，去年的行情不能代表今年。
3，顾客多利润不一定大；
In this argument, the writer states that abandoning stocking imported cheese is the best way to improve profits. The statement is based on a survey which indicates domestic cheese is more popular among subscribers. It is also pointed that the five best –selling cheeses at newest store were domestic cheeses last year. To further support the view, the arguer claims that the limit inventory could reduce expenses. These reasons seem to be convincing, but a careful examination would reveal how groundless they are.
First, the evidences are not representative. It only includes 5 newest shops, many old ones are excluded. It is possible, that in old stores imported cheese sells well. In addition, the survey held by the magazine is dubious. There is no information about the poll of the survey. If the people respond the survey limits to only one place while our store is a national one, the result of the survey cannot apply to the whole country. Perhaps, customs in other place likes imported cheese better. Therefore we can’t draw any reliable conclusion from these evidences.

Second, the writer use last year selling situation as an evidence. He neglects the factor of time which perhaps can change everything, including eating habits and market competition. Maybe people find imported cheese are more healthy and prefer them this year. It is also possible that our store was the only one sold domestic cheese in the past, but now there are more stores entering this deal, thus selling variety of cheese may help to make us more competitive. After all, we can meet customs different demands in this way. In face of fierce competition, nobody can rely on previous experience.

Even admit that subscribers prefer domestic cheese, there is no grantee that more customs would lead to more profits. We need to find out why this kind of cheese is popular. If it is because domestic cheese is very cheap, the profit may become very low, even though it sells well. On contrary, imported cheese may be in high price, thus we can earn a lot from it even a few customs buy it.

In the sum, the argument fails to support what it claims. In order to be convincing, the evidence should cover all kind of theirs shops, and the subject they polled should represent subscribers around the country. It is essential to take present situation into consideration. In addition more information is needed to assess whether discontinue stocking would bring more profit. Only in this way can we make a rational decision.