argument45 永不言弃小组第二次作业by花生1号

花生peanutUID: 2487804

45. The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。

提纲：
1。全球温度上升不表明当地气温有所上升，冰面有融化，使北极鹿不能迁徙。
（整体与部分关系）
2．没有证据说温度上升鹿就会死，可能改变生活习惯，但不一定会死。
3．不一定数量真的减少，可能只是猎人没找到。（猎人活动的时间、范围以及习惯是否与鹿相同都会影响到他们是否能看见鹿。）
4．北极鹿数量减少可能是因为其他原因，植物减少，过度猎杀。
5.结论：论者若要增加说服力，还因提供目前鹿数目的变化情况，以及当地气温是否有上升。另外鹿的生存环境是否还存在其他的威胁也需要调查。

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 524
TIME: 02:00:46
DATE: 2009-2-4 11:29:06

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deer population is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To substantiate this argument, the arguer points out that the recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. In addition, the arguer cites that the deer populations are declining according to reports from local hunters. At first glance, the arguer's reasoning seems to be appealing, while a careful examination of the argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, the arguer unfairly assumes that the recent global warming trends apply specifically to the local islands in Canada's arctic region. Lacking evidence that local islands reflect the general trends, it is entirely possible that the temperature in local islands keeps stable. For that matter, it is equally possible that the temperature in local islands have such decreasing trends. Thus, the global warming trends that the arguer cites amount to scant evidence that the temperature in local islands would be rising.

Secondly, even if the temperature in local islands is increasing with the global warming trends, the arguer provides no evidence to support the assumption that the increasing temperature would kill the deer. It is possible that the rising temperature just changes the deer living habits rather than killing them. Lacking evidence to substantiate this assumption, the arguer cannot make me convince.

Thirdly, the arguer points out the deer populations are declining according to reports from local hunters. It is worth for us to suspect the fact that the deer populations are really declining. Even though the reports' respondents do not tell lies and they are representative of the entire population of local hunters, it is likely that the scope of hunting, the hunting time and hunters' habits are all different from the deer’s activities and habits. Thus, it is quite possible that hunters themselves do not find deer rather than lacking of deer.

Finally, the arguer fails to take into account other factors about the reasons for the declining populations of deer. In other words, the arguer overlooks the strong possibility that the rising temperature in local islands is not the only fact affecting the deer populations.
Other factors such as the decreasing plants on which deer feed, excessive hunting, or even a new species into the local food chain, have served to decline the deer populations. Without considering and ruling out these and other factors that might have served to decline the deer populations, the arguer cannot justifiably conclude that the rising temperature in local islands make the deer populations decline.

To sum up, this argument is not so convincing as it stands. In order to make it more persuasive, the arguer would better make sure whether or not the temperature in local islands is rising with the global warming trends. Also, to better evaluate the argument, we would need more information regarding the current number of deer. Besides, the arguer should provide a survey report about the environment in local islands where deer live and find out whether there exist other factors that destroy the deer living environment.