Argument 45（求猛拍）

lemoncolorUID：2524331

这个是我第一篇完整的Argument,没有限时，写的好慢，时不时还得看看模板，而且思路不是很清晰，尤其是最后一段，感觉自己在胡说，可能主要是看着英文题目的缘故吧，机考临近，请Gter们猛拍，给出点建设性的写Argument的意见

题目：ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal. "Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are decline. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea." 字数：426 用时：AM 12:49:37 日期：2009-2-13

In this argument the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea. To support this conclusion the author cites several facts:(1)Reports from local hunters show that deer populations are decline.(2)Recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt at the same period.(3)The deer search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Even if the author's reasoning seem to attractive, we may still perceive that this argument rests on a series of unconfirmed assumptions, and is therefore unconvincing as it stands.

First, this argument involves in a problem that how many hunters report and how can we believe the hunters' reports are credible. The smaller the number of hunter, the lesser reliable the report. If the hunters tell lies, we could hardly identify the authenticity of the reports. In a word, unless the author provides the accurate data about the number of respondents and reliable information, this argument is unwarranted in any way.

Secondly, another problem with this argument is that the author commits a fallacy of causal coinstantaneous between the decline in arctic deer populations and recent global warming trends in assuming that global warming trends is the one and only reason behind deer population decline. Nevertheless the evidence offered is deficient to support the assertion: a simple positive correlation between deer population decline and global warming trends does not essentially prove a causal relationship. Perhaps temperature in arctic decreased, while the average temperature around the world increased. In short, unless the author eliminates other factors for decline of deer population, the conclusion is unwarranted as it stands.

Finally, the author commits a fallacy of causal oversimplification in assuming that deer unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea caused the decline of deer populations. However, this assumption is baseless. To set up a general causal relationship, other factors that could result decline of deer populations should be deliberated. For instance, perhaps hunters were more likely hunting a large number of deer. Or perhaps number of deer's natural enemy has increased .

In sum, unless the author provides other factors for decline of deer populations, the conclusion is vastly suspect. To sum up, the author's conclusion reached in this argument is scant of credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not offer strong support to what the arguer assertion. To enrich the evidence the author must show an accurate data of hunters who reports the decline of deer population, and provide particular information about the hunters. To bolster this conclusion the author should eliminate other factors about for decline of deer population. Otherwise, the argument would be highly unacceptable.

lemoncolorUID：2524331

沙发自己坐了，希望大家能点出所有的语言上的错误，和逻辑上的漏洞或者不得体的地方，谢啦:lol