argument20 永不言弃小组第十一次作业 by花生 1号

花生peanutUID: 2487804

20. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island
Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer
months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。
提纲：
攻击顺序：采取这个措施是否必要，因为没有资料说明这样的事故是否发生或发生率高低。危害是什么---》即使有必要，但是这样的措施是否有效，因为人口增加不意味着事故一定会增加，因为游客不一定都去租车，而且不排除很多事故是自家车造成的。-----》即使措施有效，执行的方法也不对，因为没有资料表明这些出租公司每天的出租数量，要是本来就不到30辆，那根本减少不了事故。------》即使执行方法是对的，但也不能保证效果能减少50%，这两地情况不同。
1.采取这样的措施是否必要。（论者没有提供任何有关镇里事故的资料，甚至没有说镇里有没有这样的事故，数量是多少，造成的危害是什么。因为不像汽车，这种事故一般都不会严重）
2.错误类比。两地的交通状况，这类事故所占比例，地形，人口。
3．人口增加并不意味着事故会增加。没有证据说明来的游客都会租机动自行车。
4．措施的有效性。大量非租的车也可能造成隐患，限制的数量是否合理，能否具体降低50%。

TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 653
DATE: 2009-2-17 1:44:51

This argument is well-present, but not thoroughly well-reasoned. Through predicting that the number of moped accidents would rising with the increasing population of tourists, and comparing with the neighboring island of Torseau to draw the conclusion that the town would reduce 50 percent moped accidents by limiting the number of rentals, the argument seems reasoned. Howeve, a careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

First of all, in concluding that Balmer Island must limit the number of rentals in order to reduce the number of moped accidents, the arguer assumes that limiting of the mopeds rented are both necessary and sufficient for this purpose. Yet the arguer provides no testimony to substantiate either assumption. Because there are no information about the moped accidents in this town. Thus, it is entirely possible that the moped accidents in this town merely happen sometimes, or even never. Even the incidence of the accidents is high, what harmful results would it make? Since the moped and bicycle are both simple traffic tools, they will not possible happen serious accident comparing with the car accidents.

Secondly, even if it is necessary to limit the number of rentals, the arguer provides no evidence that this measure is effective. The arguer falsely equates the increasing population of tourists with the increasing number of moped accidents. The arguer assumes that an increase in population of tourists results in the increased moped accidents. However, this is not necessarily the case. It is just likely that the increasing population of tourists has little influence on the rising of accidents, for most of tourist may not go to rent the moped and bicycle from the companies, let alone that their coming will be a cause of the increasing accidents. Besides, the arguer ignores the residents own mopeds and bicycle would be another reason of the increasing accidents. If so, it is unfair to these rental companies and might be costly for them. Without considering and ruling out these factors, the recommendation that limiting the number of rentals to reduce the accidents seems unconvinced.

In addition, even if the measure has significant effect to reduce the number of accidents, the methods that limiting the number of mopeds rented from 50 per day to 30 per day appear unreasonable. Because the arguer fails to provide some specific data of each company's every-day rentals. Without these information, it is entirely possible that most of these companies actually cannot accomplish 30 rentals everyday, or even that none of companies reach this level. If so, it means that the every-day number of moped rented keeps on the previous level rather than decrease. In other words, the action of limit the number of moped rentals is in vain. So no prior investigation, this approach is blind.

Finally, even the methods are effective to reduce the number of accidents, it cannot guarantee the 50 percent reduction. This argument depends on the hasty assumption that the results of limiting the number of rentals are the same in Balmeer Island and Torseau. However, the arguer fails to consider the geographical and physical terrain of the two different areas. Perhaps Balmer Island's road is in an area of more dangerous curves, sharp turns, or has many intersections and merging points where accidents are more likely to occur. What is more, perhaps the population of residents in Balmer is much larger than in Torseau. It appears reasonable, therefore, the residents of Balmer consider these factors than to blindly reach the same target with Torseau.

To sum up, this argument is not as convincing as it stands. In order to make it more persuasive, the arguer would better provide information about the previous number of accident and every-day rentals of each company in Balmer Island. Also, to better evaluate the argument, we need the situation about the two different areas before drawing the conclusion of reaching the 50 percent reduction target.