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欢迎狂拍!!!
Argument235. The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
【提纲】1. 没有证据证明听众不愿听摇滚乐了;首先,摇滚乐的听众数量下降不证明听众不喜欢摇滚乐;其次,音像店销量下降也不能证明不喜欢摇滚乐;
2.谁也没说老人喜欢听连续新闻节目;即使老人喜欢听,老年人数量上升,上升多少,上升后是不是比年轻人还少;
3.用临城做例子证明连续新闻节目成功,成功?特殊时期;即使临城成功,我们也不一定成功;
【正文】
Supporting the recommendation that KNOW radio station shift it programming from rock-and-roll to continuous news format, the author provides the evidence of the number of older people increasing and listeners and sales of recorded music decreasing. Additionally, the author points out the success of continuous news in nearby cities. A careful examination of this argument would reveal how groundless the recommendation is.
To begin with, the author relies on the assumption that the listeners do not favor the rock-and-roll music. The evidence of listeners and sales decreasing seems logic. However, it is entirely possible that the quality of KNOW radio station leads to the decline. In addition, taking the recorded music differs from listening to radio station. The former expend money and the later is free. Perhaps the price of recorded music is too expensive, or perhaps the decline is due to the economic depression. Unless the author takes these factors into consideration, the conclusion is unconvincing.
Yet another problem with the argument involves the implicit assumption that older people prefer continuous news fomat. As we know, older people may pay more attention on healthy program in order to make life longer and more comfortable. What's more, even assuming that the older people do favor continuous news format, the author does not give the statistics about the number of older people. Perhaps the number of older people still fewer than the number of younger people. For that matter, if true, we may miss numerous listeners who favor rock-and-roll music.
Then it is absolutely no proof offered to substantiate the success of continuous news station in nearby cities. It takes for granted that people focus on the continuous news before the recent election. In fact, the political leader may determine the direction of the city development, such as project, policy, which relates to public’s live. Furthermore, even assuming that continuous news in neighboring is successful; the author fails to consider possible difference between our city and neighboring city that might help to bring about a difference result. Perhaps those stations are successful because of their immediately reporting, strength transmitters. Therefore, the author cannot draw firm conclusion about the success of continuous news in our city.
As it stands, the argument is not well reasoned. To make it logically acceptable, the author would have to make sure that people enhance more concerned news and less concerned rock-and-roll music. Additionally, the author must consider and provide evidence to rule out other possible causes of the success of nearby cities, and must convince me that older people in our city favor continuous news.
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