Argument提纲10篇

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21The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high-quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our deluxe alpaca overcoats. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has risen in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."


1.作者没有充分理由说明目前市场上对这种驼毛衣有需求。5年没有生产该种毛衣无法成为有利的证明。可能这种毛衣已经失去了市场。
2.论者的主要竞争对手不再生产这种毛衣，可能是因为这种毛衣已经没有市场份额了，已经过时了。并不代表毛衣的销售一定会好。
3.五年中各种服装价格都在上涨，可能是由于服装的生产成本逐年增加。没有任何数据表明，这种毛衫的价格范围是否在大多数人群的消费范围之内，因此无从谈起人们能接受它的价格。
综上所述，论者需要进行更多的市场调研和目标人群的分析，掌握当前市场行情和导向，抓住机遇，不要主观臆断。

22The following appeared in a memo from the president of a company that builds and sells new homes in Steel City.

"Over the past five years, the population of Steel City has increased by more than 20 percent, and family incomes in Steel City have risen much faster than the national average. Nationwide, sales of houses priced above $150,000 have increased more than have sales of lower-priced houses. Such data indicate that we should make changes in our business to increase company profits. First, we should build fewer low-priced houses than we did last year and focus instead on building houses designed to sell at above $150,000. Second, we should hire additional workers so that we can build a larger total number of houses than we did last year."


观点：该公司董事长片面分析形势，，提出的建议不合理。
文中并没有说明在哪段时间内，房价在15万以上的房子的销量在全国范围内增加。如果是去年销量增加并不代表今年或明年的销量也会增加，应从长远的角度考虑。此外，15万以上的房子的销量是在全国范围内增加，并没有数据表明在Steel City也有所增加，也许在Steel City，房子的销量不但没有上升反而下降。即使在Steel City的高价房销售量也有所增加，这可能是当年当地人口增长的结果。人口量增加了20%，增加房屋的需求量。
今年多盖高价房的结论太过武断了，多请工人的结论也是一样。论者应当再进行更为细致的调查。

23A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.


论者的观点看似有理，实际上考虑得不够细致。
首先他以数据说明在Bay City的餐馆，海鲜的消费量在过去5年增加了30%，以此说明海鲜很有市场。然而论者没有说明在Bay City是否有其他的特色餐馆，也许海鲜只是配菜。由于特色菜色销量很好，带动海鲜食品的销量。如果开一家店只做海鲜食品，可能会没有市场。
第二，论者提出，全国范围内的研究表明，10年前的家庭更倾向于在家里做饭，今天的家庭更喜欢出去吃。全国研究的结果只是平均值，未必适合Bay City，不足以作为论据。
第三，即使Bay City的家庭都是双份收入，并不代表他们就愿意花钱吃海鲜。当地居民很注重健康，参加健身俱乐部等等。
综上所述，论者所说的论据不足以说明在Bay City开一家海鲜店一定会有前景，建议再进行更为细致的市场调研。

24The following appeared in a memo from the president of Viva-Tech, a manufacturer of high-tech medical equipment.

"In order to reduce costs, we should close some of our existing small assembly plants and build a large central plant. Grandview would be an ideal location for this new plant. First, of the locations that we have considered, Grandview has the largest adult population, so that we will be able to staff our plant quickly and easily. Second, since the average wage earned by workers in Grandview is less than that in the other locations, we should be able to keep production costs low. Last, as an inducement for us to build there, Grandview's town council has offered to allow us to operate for the first three years without paying city taxes."

1．论者提出在Grandview，工人的工资比较低，成本较低。但是成本包含许多内容，除了工人工资之外，还有水、电、厂房租用费用。此外拆除小厂房，建筑大厂房，也需要一大笔资金。所以成本是否降低还有待商榷。
2. Grandview有最多的成年人，并不代表他们没有工作，愿意到这个公司工作。也许正是因为当地就业机会很多，政府又十分支持，才吸引了许多人来这里居住和工作。
结论：论者应该更采集更充分的信息和数据。



25The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

论者把所有的功劳都归功于高尔夫球场的建设，太绝对了。高尔夫球场可能是其中的一个因素。
论者没有考虑别的可能的原因：这两年的旅游人数增加可能是由于本市的旅游资源开发的好。例如开发了新的景点。或者提供了更好的服务，或者调整价格，使价格更为合理；或者有了新的交通工具或直达的交通路线；或者加大了宣传力度；或者是人们的生活观念发生了变化，更喜欢旅游。
第二，论者没有说明该城市原本是否就有高尔夫球场以及假日旅馆。如果是第一家，可能影响力大些，如果不是第一家，估计影响较小。
第三，Ocean View可能是一个旅游景点，它的情况不能直接应用在Hopewell上，因为是两个不同的城市，未必具有可比性。
结论：论者应该根据本地情况进行讨论，生搬硬套是不可取的。