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The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

The president of a chain of cheese stores recommends that they will make more profits with a domestic cheeses’ stocking rise. To support his recommendation, the president give some evidences, including an observation of the newest store, a recent survey by a magazine, and a seem-logical reasoning.
However, the president fails to see that ,the selling records of the newest store may not be well representative of that of the stores throughout entire country. Considering the large span of the United States and the multiple needs coming from the masses, one single store, moreover, with a quite short history, may be the single exception towards the majority. For example ,it is possible that, in the district where the store located, the citizens have a preference to domestic cheeses, so the best-selling cheeses are just the preference of someone rather than everyone. And furthermore, to draw a precious conclusion, the time span of 1 year seems too short, since the newest shore may drive some marketing strategies, or a new large family just has immigrated in this district, having not changed their dining habit yet, hence nobody can not certify that the situation will not have some changes. That is why a long-term inquiry would limit the influence of the interrupting factors, so that draw a more reliable evidence.
The president give another source of evidence, which is, a survey by Cheeses of the World magazine, showing their subscribers have a preference for domestic cheeses. This is not fully convincing either, with a fallacy of biased-sample, for their subscribers wouldn't be representative of all of the citizens ,at least the people consisting the aim-market of the stores. A personal judgment, a decline of flavor and even a business purpose will be included ,while these so-called subscribers taking part in the survey. So what we need is a well designed inquiry among well representing sample. Again, if the sample of this survey is appropriate ,it only indicates an increasing preference regarding the domestic cheeses, which sounds quiet different from a dominant surpassing or a total overwhelm in the market. Maybe a little tend will let them to draw this conclusion, recovering the selling of domestic cheeses is not so tough as before. Therefore, it's hardly to support the reasoning chains for this vague statement.
In the end, the president predicted his company can make more profits by stocking more domestic cheeses,and it seems that a stocking variety is equal to a profit increase .As we know, without suitable marketing strategy and method, stocking can not change into selling automatically. There may be some problems during the purchasing procedure ,which seems to be considered completely. What's more, then common sense tells me that the profit depends on the scale of income and cost. Without calculating how much they will got and pay, the president connot convince me that the concentration on domestic cheeses would ensure a high profit.
In conclusion, the recommendation for concentration on stocking of domestic cheeses is not well supported. To convince me that the strategy changing is needed to ensure profit improving, the president must provide more reliable statistical evidence that the selling condition of domestic cheeses is in a overwhelming position, and this kind of overwhelming is long-term rather than temporary.