[tsubasa] 第二次作业argument45 by muxinshuang

muxinshuangUID：2258459

The author's evidence is too limited to conclusively support the claims that the decline in arctic deer populations results from being unable to follow the age-old migration pattern across the frozen sea area. His claims would be strengthened, if he could provide more evidence to demonstrate there is really a increase of temperature in the area, to show the global warming trends directly causes the melting of the ice, to substantiate there is a real decline of deer population but not merely based on hunters' reports. Otherwise, I have to say his claim is unconvincing and unreliable.

First of all, even if we admit there is a global warming in this world, the author fails to provide any evidence to show there is an actual increase of local temperature occurring in this particular area. Even though we concede there occurs a local temperate increase, it still may be just a temporary increase but a not constant trend of temperature increase which is caused by the global warming. Clearly, as a very complex phenomenon, the existence of the global warming is still a very controversial issue which is based on a relatively long-time study and analysis to show whether this area is suffering a constant increase of local temperature. If the author can not to provide such evidence, it is unreasonable to say that the area suffers an increase of local temperature, or to say the temporary increase of temperature results from the global warming.

Second, the conclusion about the decline of deer population is merely based on local hunters' reports without a scientific survey. It is definitely not sufficient to make a convinced conclusion. If the reports are given by a very limited number of hunters, or merely based on a limited area, it can not convincingly to say there is an actual decline of deer population. Even if we admit that there may be a decline, still, numerous reasons other than a temperature increase may lead the same fact. For example, the decline may result from air/water pollution, or from more frequent hunting activities, and so on. If the author can not show a direct causal relation between the decline and the global warming, his claim is very weak to support his idea.

Third, even if the area really suffers an increase of temperature and the increase results from the global warming as well, it still needs sufficient evidences to show the local temperature is warm enough to melt the frozen area and kill the plants which deer feed. Without such evidence, it still can not say the author's claim is convincing and reliable.

All in all, the author's current evidences are too limited to make a convincing conclusion. The claim would be more valid, if he can provide clear and unquestionable evidences to show there really suffers a stable increase of temperature which melts the frozen area and is caused by the global warming, to substantiate that there really suffers a decline of deer population by the disappear of some frozen areas.

cnwzlyUID：2634423

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it.(背景) Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt,（前提） we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."（结论）



The author's evidence is too limited to conclusively support the claims that the decline in arctic deer populations results from being unable to follow the age-old migration pattern across the frozen sea area. His claims would be strengthened, if he could provide more evidence to demonstrate there is really a increase of temperature in the area, to show the global warming trends directly causes the melting of the ice, to substantiate there is a real decline of deer population but not merely based on hunters' reports. Otherwise, I have to say his claim is unconvincing and unreliable.

First of all, even if we admit there is a global warming in this world, the author fails to provide any evidence to show there is an actual increase of local temperature occurring in this particular area. Even though we concede there occurs a local temperate increase, it still may be just a temporary increase but a not constant trend of temperature increase which is caused by the global warming.个人感觉多次如此让步实在不好，不是让步越多越好，这是看内容有没有足够的深度空间，因为让步一般代表递进的，是需要挖掘出更深的攻击点进行攻击，而这说来说去就是温度不一定上升这个问题 Clearly, as a very complex phenomenon, the existence of the global warming is still a very controversial issue which is based on a relatively long-time study and analysis to show whether this area is suffering a constant increase of local temperature. If the author can not to provide such evidence, 这扯远了it is unreasonable to say that the area suffers an increase of local temperature, or to say the temporary increase of temperature results from the global warming.

Second, the conclusion about the decline of deer population is merely based on local hunters' reports without a scientific survey. It is definitely not sufficient to make a convinced conclusion. If the reports are given by a very limited number of hunters, or merely based on a limited area, it can not convincingly to say there is an actual decline of deer population. 为什么呢？不说下去吗Even if we admit that there may be a decline, still, numerous reasons other than a temperature increase may lead the same fact. For example, the decline may result from air/water pollution, or from more frequent hunting activities, and so on. If the author can not show a direct causal relation between the decline and the global warming, his claim is very weak to support his idea.本段楼主攻击了两点，其实第二点更重要，但放在后面就显得不突出了

Third, even if the area really suffers an increase of temperature and the increase results from the global warming as well, it still needs sufficient evidences to show the local temperature is warm enough to melt the frozen area and kill the plants which deer feed. Without such evidence, it still can not say the author's claim is convincing and reliable.

All in all, the author's current evidences are too limited to make a convincing conclusion. The claim would be more valid, if he can provide clear and unquestionable evidences to show there really suffers a stable increase of temperature which melts the frozen area and is caused by the global warming, to substantiate that there really suffers a decline of deer population by the disappear of some frozen areas.
楼主在各段落中一般都只说到错了，但怎么错，错在哪都没说清楚