argument 15 请狠批

lilisongsongUID: 2640091

TOPIC: ARGUMENT15 - The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
WORDS: 499      TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2009-7-6 8:39:54
时间还是不够用，主要是一开始不着急。后来很着急就写的很快了


The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly reasoned. By providing a survey, the argument for advising the company's stockholders to sell their shares and others to not purchase them seems logical. However, the argument contains several facets that are questionable and each of them will be discussed in turn as below.


The first facet that is questionable in this argument is the reliability and representativeness of the survey the author citedAs we know, the reliability of a survey rests on the statistic integrity, and the smaller the sample is, the less reliable the result is. But the author provides no evidence of how many participants are contained in the survey. Besides, the representativeness are also questionable because the author provides no evidence that the participants embrace a wide range of people rather than a narrow range. If so, most of the respondents might be old people and children, who are more concerning with healthy food but cannot represent all of the customers. What's more, even though a great part of people prefer to reduce their intake of foods containing fat and cholesterol, it does not indicate that they do not eat them, because no evidence is supplied by the author that the composition of nutrition is the only determine factor for customs to choose food. Perhaps people cannot abandon(抛弃 desert / give up /discard ) such food for its delicious favor and low price. If so, the author cannot convince me that people would reduce their food containing fats and cholesterol.

The second flaw in this argument is that today's low-fat products in many food stores does not indicate it is a real competitor of the Old Dairy. There is no evidence to prove it. Common sense tells me that there are countless kinds of foods. Perhaps, the low-fats products are just ice-crime or cakes, not the same kind of the products of Old Dairy, which makes other food. This makes the two kinds of store not competitors at all, and thus can not threaten the Old Diary company, and its sales would not diminish greatly and the profits would not decrease.

Finally, even assuming the sales are diminishing and profits are decreasing, the advice that Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and investors not to purchase it are open to doubt. After all, the Old Diary has its own markets and customs, and has long-term experience in terms of food products. It can achieve more sales by shifting its foods containing fats and cholesterol to those containing less, and thus attracts his customers again. In addition, the company can take many other measures to keep its profits at a high level, such as improving the favor of its products, advertising more and the likes. Through these ways, the Old Diary can avoid such a decrease in sales and profits.

Overall, the reasoning behind the advice is not logical as it stand. Before any final decision, the author should substantiate the reliability and representativeness of the survey. To better the argument, I advise the author to consider other ways to making more profits for the company.

ahngUID: 2605383

The argument is well-presented, but not thoroughly reasoned. By providing a survey, the argument for advising the company's stockholders to sell their shares and others to not purchase them seems logical. However, the argument contains several facets that are questionable and each of them will be discussed in turn as below.

The first facet that is questionable in this argument is the reliability and representativeness of the survey the author citedAs we know, the reliability of a survey rests on the statistic integrity, and the smaller the sample is, the less reliable the result is. But the author provides no evidence of how many participants are contained in the survey. Besides, the representativeness are also questionable because the author provides no evidence that the participants embrace a wide range of people rather than a narrow range. If so, most of the respondents might be old people and children, who are more concerning with healthy food but cannot represent all of the customers. (下面的内容跟调查的可信度无关，建议分开来写)What's more, even though a great part of people prefer to reduce their intake of foods containing fat and cholesterol, it does not indicate that they do not eat them, because no evidence is supplied by the author that the composition of nutrition is the only determine factor for customs to choose food. Perhaps people cannot abandon(抛弃 desert / give up /discard ) such food for its delicious favor and low price. If so, the author cannot convince me that people would reduce their food containing fats and cholesterol.

The second flaw in this argument is that today's low-fat products in many food stores does not indicate it is a real competitor of the Old Dairy. There is no evidence to prove it.(这句有点多余...) Common sense tells me that there are countless kinds of foods. Perhaps, the low-fats products are just ice-crime(我觉得冰淇淋应该是高脂肪的?) or cakes, not the same kind of the products of Old Dairy, which makes other food. This makes the two kinds of store not competitors at all, and thus can not threaten the Old Diary company, and its sales would not diminish greatly and the profits would not decrease.(这句话主语有点乱，可以这样写：In this case, the producers, aimed at different products, are not competitors at all. That is to say, they do not threaten each other in the industry of food, and thus the sales of Old Diary won't diminish greatly due to the little influence of other producers.)

Finally, even assuming the sales are diminishing and profits are decreasing, the advice that Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and investors not to purchase it are open to doubt. After all, the Old Diary has its own markets and customs, and has long-term experience in terms of food products. It can achieve more sales by shifting its foods containing fats and cholesterol to those containing less, and thus attracts his customers again.(这句推断的好像没有evidence？或者改成it may...) In addition, the company can take many other measures to keep its profits at a high level, such as improving the favor of its products, advertising more and the likes. Through these ways, the Old Diary can avoid such a decrease in sales and profits.

Overall, the reasoning behind the advice is not logical as it stand. Before any final decision, the author should substantiate the reliability and representativeness of the survey. To better (好像少了个词？) the argument, I advise the author to consider other ways to making more profits for the company.

我觉得大体框架写的还满好，第一段写的有点多，而且对于调查的问题并不应该作为驳斥的重点。有一些小的拼写和语法错，不过不碍大局。