7.8 Argument207 提纲 by GG86_Fly

GG86_FlyUID: 2641450

TOPIC: ARGUMENT207 - It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.

1.
The author concludes that the phenomenon that increased ultraviolet radiation due to the thinning of the Earth’s ozone layer has caused a species of salamander to decline, and will no doubt cause population declines in other species. Carefully examine the author's reasoning, we may find this argument contains several flaws, which render the author's conclusion unconvincing.
2.
First of all, there is no evidence to indicate that the population of the salamander that lays its eggs in mountain has in fact declined.
3.
Secondly, the correlation between ultraviolet radiation and the salamander population does not suffice in itself to prove that the former causes the decline of the latter. There might be other alternative explanations for the decline.
4.
Even if the ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs which have no protective shells, the author cannot hastily to infer that it will damage other species.
5.
Finally, the author’s conclusion relied on the assumption that this phenomenon will continue in the future.
6.
To sum up, the author’s conclusion is unconvincing as it stands. To better support this argument, the author should first convince us that the population has decline and this decline has no alternative explanation. Then the author should also provide clear evidence that the ozone layer’s thinning process will continue or even become worse, and must count for why the increased ultraviolet radiation can also damage other species.