Argument1[快刀杀鸡]7/17 作业 by ajohnares

ajohnaresUID: 2661147

题目：ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.

"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."

提纲：
1、衣服鞋子销量高并不能说明居民健康生活。
2、健康俱乐部的复兴不能说明居民一定会买NW的产品
3、教育中的下一代并不能保证将来会健康生活，更不用说购买NW
4、此外，作者没有进行投资回报估算，可能虽然人们购买力太低不足以收回成本；而且当地可能已有竞争公司存在，不一定占有优势。

In this argument, the arguer recommends Nature's Way build a new branch in Plainsville. To support the claim, the arguer cites (1) the running shoes and exercise clothing are best-sellers all the time, (2) the local health club is more popular and profitable than before, (3) the "fitness for life" program applied for Plainsville's schoolchildren ensures a new generation of customers. Based on these specious evidences, the arguer concludes that the residents in Plainsville are highly concerned with leading healthy lives, and thus the new store built there will certainly be profitable. After a scrutiny of the evidences provided by the arguer, I cannot be convinced for several respects.

The first problem in this argument is that the high sales of running shoes and exercise clothing do not necessarily indicate that the residents in Plainsville are concerned with leading healthy lives. It is entirely possible that those garments are just more available or fashionable and that is the mere reason for which the citizens tend to buy them, rather than they care about the healthy lifestyles. Without ruling out the alternative explanations for the considerable sales, the arguer cannot conclude that the residents are concerned with leading healthy lives.

The second flaw is that the revival of the local health club cannot affirm that the residents are interested in the health-related products of Nature's Way. Admittedly, the people who tend to go to the health club are most likely to lead healthy lives, but they are not necessarily willing to purchase the products of Nature's Way. On the contrary, it is equally possible that they believe they have invested enough money on the healthy lifestyles and there is no point in consuming other health-related products.

Thirdly, the new generation who are now participating in a "fitness for life" program can hardly assure that they will lead healthy lives and buy Nature's Way's products. That depends on the effects of the program. Especially, common sense informs us that the restrictions put on students by the school sometimes may evoke antipathy and objection among students, which make them less likely to lead healthy lives, let alone buy Nature's Way's products.

Moreover, even if the residents are indeed concerned with leading healthy lives and willing to purchase Nature's Way's health-related product, whether a new store will be profitable is also reliant on other factors. Is the number of people buying Nature's Way's products large enough to ensure that the profits will be more impressive than the costs? Are there other competing companies selling similar products in a more favorable position? Without considering these questions, the arguer cannot generalize hastily that the new store will seek for fortunes in Plainsville.

In sum, the argument is convincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the arguer must provide supportive evidence that the residents in Plainsville are actually concerned with leading healthy lives and willing to purchase Nature's Way's products. In addition, the arguer also needs a precise calculation on profits and costs of the new store, and relevant information about the rival companies in that city.