argument第6 请高手指教

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In the argument, the author concludes thattheir application for the loan should be approved. To support the conclusion,the author cites the following facts: (1) the competition in the Monroe city isnot so fierce (2) the popularity of jazz in Monroe last summer (3) severalcelebrated jazz musicians live in Monroe (3) the highest-rated radio program inMonroe is 'Jazz Night' (4) the information of a nationwide study. At firstglance, the argument may seem somehow reasonable, bust close scrutiny of eachfact reveals that none of them leads credible support to the conclusion.

To begin with, the excerpt fails to assureme that the information cited by the developers reflects the real phenomenon inMonroe city. Common sense informs me that since they want to get the loan, itis possible that they will tell the lie which makes them get the loan much moreeasily. Thus, the number cited here is not that sound and reliable.

Secondly, even assuming that the statistichere is reliable, a direct correlation between the number of people thatattended the jazz festival and the popularity of jazz in Monroe does not meanthat the former causes the latter. While a high correlation is strong evidenceof a causal relation. In itself it is not sufficient. For instance, perhapsthere are 100,000,000 people in the city of Monroe. Thus, 100,000 people isreally a small portion. It is also possible that most people attend thefestival come from other cities. Without ruling out all these possibleexplanations, the author cannot justifiably conclude that over 100,000 peopleattended the festival is the main cause of the popularity of jazz in Monroe.

Similarly, it is unfairly to infer thatthat several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe means that the jazz inMonroe are popular. However, this might not be the case.
Perhaps the climate in Monroe is great whichhelps the musicians to create more works. Or perhaps in Monroe, they are notinterrupted by the fans. Without taking all the posibilities intoconsideration, the author cannot convince me by showing the fact that famousjazz musicians live in Monroe.

Finally, one problem with the argument isthat it assumes that the nationwide study applies in the city of Monroe.However, this might not be the case, for a variety of reasons. Perhaps theliving condition in Monroe is low so that the jazz fans in Monroe cannotafford
1000 dollars to buy the CD orother related entertainments. Thus, the author cannot confidently conclude thatCNote can make a lot of money in Monroe.

In sum the conclusion relies on certaindoubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster theconclusion that the information the author should provide clear evidence thatthe information used here is reliable and the people in Monroe are reallyenthusiastic about jazz and the people there can afford the entertainment.