Argument65 【四人行小组】第9次作业 by Jeking

JgHuangUID: 2569221

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 407

TIME: 00:30:00

DATE: 2009-7-27 11:25:46
1、
新开的店的销售情况并不能代表所有其他店的销售情况。可能新店为了吸引顾客而促销这5中商品。它们的利润很小甚至会赔钱。
2、
杂志做的调查可能不能反映消费者的意愿。调查可能不是在美国做的，即使是， 杂志的订阅者也可能不具有代表性。
3、
作者缺乏一个cost-benefit analysis。也可能有更好的方法。如降低进口产品的数量，增加国内奶酪的数量。
Hastily generalizing the five best-selling cheeses at newest store to all other cheese stores, unfairly assuming that the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine can reflect the public taste in the United States, heedlessly ignoring a thorough cost-benefit analysis, this argument has several flaws which render it unconvincing.

First and foremost, the author unfairly assumes that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store is also the five best-selling cheeses at all their cheese stores. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case. And the author also provide no evidences to support this assumption. It is highly possible that their newest store promotes the five cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin in order to attract more customers. What is more, their margin of profit from the five best-selling cheeses is very narrow, even selling at a loss. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of improving profits is entirely unfounded.

Additionally, Cheeses of the World magazine’s recent survey, cited by the author, can’t reflect the opinions of customer in the United States. There is a likelihood that where the survey was investigated was not in the United States. Moreover, the magazine subscribers may not representative of the overall customers of Cheeses in the United States. In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the author cannot rely on it draw any firm conclusion about the preference of customers.

Moreover, Even if the foregoing assumptions is true as the author claims, it is highly doubts that discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits in all of their stories. Just as likely, they will lost a lot of customers because there are not imported cheese. Maybe the profits of the five best-selling cheese only take account little of whole profits of all the stories. In all probability, decreasing the imported cheese and increasing domestic cheese can better than the former measures. What is more, the author should give a thorough cost-benefits analysis of the measures.

To sum up, this argument is not compelling as it stands. To bolster this argument, the author should prove that the case of the newest store is also hold in all stores and the respondents of the survey can represent the whole customers in the United States. Moreover, the author should also provide a thorough cost-benefits analysis of the measures and prove it is the best way to improve all the stores.

9510638UID: 2650153

Hastily generalizing the five best-selling cheeses at newest store to all other cheese stores, unfairly assuming that the survey by Cheeses of the World magazine can reflect the public taste in the United States, heedlessly ignoring a thorough cost-benefit analysis, this argument has several flaws which render it unconvincing.

First and foremost, the author unfairly assumes that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store is also the five best-selling cheeses at all their cheese stores. However, there is no guarantee that this is the case. And the author also provide no evidences to support this assumption. It is highly possible that their newest store promotes the five cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin in order to attract more customers. What is more, their margin of profit from the five best-selling cheeses is very narrow, even selling at a loss. Lacking this assumption, the expectation of improving profits is entirely unfounded.

Additionally, Cheeses of the World magazine’s recent survey, cited by the author, can’t reflect the opinions of customers in the whole United States. There is a likelihood that where the survey was investigated was not in the United States. Moreover, the magazine subscribers may not representative of the overall customers of Cheeses in the United States.(和本段开头一句重复） In short, without better evidence that the survey is statistically reliable the author cannot rely on it感觉放在这里别扭 是不是放句尾好些draw any firm conclusion about the preference of customers.

Moreover, Even if the foregoing assumptions is true as the author claims, it is highly doubts that discontinue stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits in all of their stories. Just as likely, they will lost a lot of customers because there are not imported cheese. Maybe the profits of the five best-selling cheese only take account little of whole profits of all the stories. In all probability, decreasing the imported cheese and increasing domestic cheese can better than the former measures.不太明白这句话的意思 What is more, the author should give a thorough cost-benefits analysis 用的好 of the measures.

To sum up, this argument is not compelling as it stands. To bolster this argument, the author should prove that the case of the newest store is also hold in all stores and the respondents of the survey can represent the whole customers in the United States. Moreover, the author should also provide a thorough cost-benefits analysis of the measures and prove it is the best way to improve all the stores.结尾和开头都很值得学习