新人习作

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT148 - The following appeared in the editorial section of Monroetown's local newspaper.
"Mayor Brown was recently re-elected by a clear majority of 52 percent of Monroetown's voters. Her re-election, however, does not show that most people in our town favored Mayor Brown's proposal for tax reduction over that of her opponent, Mr. Greene, who proposed raising taxes to improve education. It has been shown that voters nationwide tend to re-elect people already in office, regardless of candidates' proposals. In fact, a local survey after the election showed most people in Monroetown disagreed with Mayor Brown's proposal. Clearly most people in Monroetown favor improving education and therefore approve of Mr. Greene's proposal despite the fact that they did not vote for him."
WORDS: 211          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2009-7-30 16:35:58

In the editorial, the author concludes that the people in Monroetown's voters are more approve of Mr.Greene's proposal instead of the fact that Mayor Brown was re-elected by majority of voters. In order to support the argument, the author cites a recent survey and a tendency that nation-wide voters tend ro re-elect people already in office. However, these evidence neither constitutes a logical statement nor provide compelling support making the argument persuasive and unvulnerable.
To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that the Monroetown's voters are following the nationwide tendency to elect the people already in office. Because the nationwide tendency could hardly indicate the precise situation of particular region. It is most likely that the voters compare the two candidates carefully in every aspects before they decide to vote. Until the author provide further information to exclude the concern, we can't make sure that the voters in Monroetown are driven by the tendency.
Secondly, it is fallacious for the author to take it for granted in the survey that the people who disagreed with Mayor Brown's proposal were in favor of the proposal provided by Mr. Greene. Since there is no evidence that it is necessarily the case and it is quite possible that they disagreed both of the proposals. If this is the case, the author can not convince me that the people of Monroetown are much more in favor of the Mr.Green's proposal.
The last but not the least, even if the author can substantiate the majority of the respondents in the survey are in favor of the G's proposal against B's, it is still unwarranted to prove that G has gained the support from the majority of the voters. It is entirely possible that the respondents are under age. Although they favor the G's educational proposal, they have not the right to vote for him. Without ruling out this possibility, the author can't convince me the credibility of the survey.
To sum up, this argument is not well justified. In order to strengthen the argument, the author has to provide more information illustrate how the tendency nationwide influence the tendency in M. Additionally, the author should eliminate all possible explanations in the survey.