ARGUMENT 23

WONDERFUL.UID: 2390236

A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.

rebuttal:
1.30 percent increase of consumption doesn't necessarily mean people are into seafood much more than they were 5 years ago.
2.Folks in Bay City may enjoy home-cooked seafood rather than that presented in the restaurants.
3.nationwide study --- Bay City

4.People express more concern about eating healthily could be their major reason to decline restaurant seafood.
5.profitable --- seafood price, seasonal, transportation price, storage cost...

This argument concluded that a new Bay City seafood restaurant could be quite popular and profitable, based on a recent sales study showing that seafood consumption here has increased by 30 percent over the past 5 years, and a nationwide survey indicating that two-income families eat fewer home-cooked meals that a decade ago. I, however, thought it unconvincing and unsophisticated, based on those little information about the seafood prospect here, to make such a hasty conclusion.

First, 30 percent increase of seafood consumption doesn't necessarily mean people are into seafood much more than they were 5 years ago, it is entirely possible that people in Bay City consume just a very small amount of seafood 5 years ago and today they eat very little as well. Without more detailed information about the consumption number of seafood 5 years ago, the actual consumption of seafood here in Bay City is still a mystery.


Second, based on a nationwide survey that the two-income families are more likely to go out and eat and that the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, it seems very likely that Bay City families would be more likely to eat in the restaurant. But given a comprehensive consideration, we can easily suppose that these families would enjoy Chinese food, Italian food, and Korean food etc. more because of their deep concern of eating health as has been reported. If so, they would feel more healthy and safe to eat home-cooked seafood rather than that prepared in the restaurant. Further more, those families have many other reasons to decline a seafood restaurant, religion, ethnic, even allergy. So, even when the nationwide survey could be particularly applied to Bay City, it's still, without credible information showing Bay City folks' real interests in eating restaurant seafood, unconvincing and unsubstantiated that the proposed new restaurant would be popular and profitable.

Finally, whether the new Bay City restaurant would be popular and profitable depends upon not only folks' preference, but also the seasonal seafood material price, transportation and storage cost, consumer spending and the magic of the chefs. So the argument needs a whole lot more statistics to bolster the rectitude of its conclusion.

In all, to justify the final conclusion, more detailed information about the sales study should be provided and it should rule out other possibilities those families could choose to eat when concerned about their health and other reasons. In the end, it needs to consider all other factors associated with the restaurant's popularity and profits before making a rational and reasonable conclusion.