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TOPIC: ISSUE184 - "It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
WORDS: 279 TIME: 01:00:00 DATE: 2009-8-8 16:44:53
1.很多的前沿论文都只有大量的实验数据和实验和实验方法,但是很少有结论,因为谨慎。这种态度值得学习,但是并不是通用的,很多时候我们不需要或者没有数据来归纳,但是仍然有办法做结论。
2诚然,没有数据或者数据很少的时候的理论化是盲目和致命的。
3有些领域不需要数据。
4所有的data是为了支撑理论的,理论能自己站稳就行了。谨慎固然好,效率价更高。
5.数据不是必须得,只要理论能被证明足够可靠就行。
Scan piles of scientific papers, numerous experiments means and data can be found, but few conclusions are drawn, let alone generalized theories. It is admirable and worth following that people dealing knowledge with much discretion. However, that is not always necessary, in consideration of efficiency and practicability.
Mostly, it is dangerous to unscrupulously reach any theory in a circumstance when data is absent. Lack of substantiated evidence can lead to unexpected disasters. That is why in pharmaceutical industry and medical world, for example, a new medicine and its usage have to be tested for a lone time. Since once a kind of pill passes through test, it will be put on shelves available by hundreds of patients; clinical trials can never be more than enough. Purdu Drug Company, for example, was prosecuted by 20 patients who have taken its medicine which can cause addiction. Finally, the company got a more than six hundred of millions dollars swingeing fines. Not only medical aspects, aviation industry, civil engineering, environment protection and so forth all require data to justify a hypothesis. Data, as the confirmation and evidence before any theory is made, can eliminate potential danger of applying the new theory.
There are some circumstances, however, require little data for substantiation. Though it favorable to have some evidence to support such theories, but not necessary. Like the famous theory of relativity, though people can neither prove its soundness or absurdity at first, physicists and mathematicians have developed many totally new theories and applications based on it. Admittedly, it is important to prove the great theory by concrete data; after all, science is based on a cautious attitude. But millions of dollars from tax payers spent on its testimonial is less worthy than spending on practical applications which are proved to be safe and valuable. Even if people were willing and discreet to justify the new theory at that time, subjective conditions do not allow so. Many electrical events can only be waited rather than created for the testimonial. In cases above, theories are not necessarily connected with data.
Actually, since all the theories serve to conduct people's working and living, the practical purpose come first. In the aspect of efficiency, as long as the safety of the application of a theory is substantiated, tests for the theory itself can be ignored if time and sources are limited. Throughout history, many theories which were regarded as absolute truth are now obvious fallacies. But their merits, though limited, have served as guidance to help people made progresses one after one. It is the same thing for contemporary society. People can take advantage of relatively grounded theories just like laying courses of bricks. These bricks may be fragile, but without primitive houses as a beginning, we can never achieve skyscrapers afterwards. How can cavemen build great mansions as soon as they step out cave?
Human beings have always been temper daring with discreet. We assume a theory, and then prove it. When the later process is missing or insufficient, damage may raise. But all above are based on their necessities, after all, we theorize for application. |
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