Argument 007，考前12天

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Topic - Argument 007. The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."

时间：50m
字数：580
The author's claim seems to be reasonable at first glance. After all, it is based on several facts about Clearview(C). However, after carefully scrutinizing the speaker, it seems to me that the author's conclusions on those facts are at best plausible to mask several other possibilities.

In the first place, the author incorrectly deduces that the current council members are not protecting our environment. The author is based on the fact that in the argument that the factories has doubled in C accompany with aggravated environmental pollution during the past years. But it is likely that these new factories belong to the light industrialization such as producing milk, and don’t create any exhaust emission, or that these manufactures are established far from the city and rarely effect C’s environment. Both of which, if are correct, would prove that the new factories have nothing to do with C’s air pollution, and which in turn demonstrate that the city council is cautious to handle the issues between economic development and protecting environment. The author also makes his conclusion on another fact that local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. However, the cause of diseases is likely for other reasons rather than pollution, say, most citizens began to raise pets and some of them are allergic to the hair of the pets which directly lead to such illness. If so, the author cannot support his claim based on this fact. In a word, the author cannot justify his conclusion with the existence of these possibilities.

What is more, even if current members do not pay attention to environment protection, it does not follow those environmental issues is the most crucial problem of C, and have to deal with it immediately. Maybe there are another urgent problem cries for solution. It’s possible that residents in C have experienced economic recession, which causes the business failure and increased unemployment, aside from exerting financial pressures, it brings enormous psychological troubles to citizens. Consequently, people in C merely consider to get a job rather then concern about the environmental problems. Moreover, the social order of C is disrupted and public security worsened, the chief responsibility of C’s mayor is to maintain city’s law and order. Unless excluding these factors, the author cannot make his recommendation advisable.

Finally, even if environmental issues are the principal problem, the author cannot prove that Ann Green(AG) is better able to settle it than Fran Braun(FB). Maybe Fran Braun(FB) has promoted many suggestions to the council to protect the environment and he opposed himself to the new industrial project in the city with all his might, so FB has more practical experience on the problem of environmental pollution than any other candidates. Or it’s also possible that FB is also the member of the Good Earth Coalition, even the hard core of this organization. He plays an important role in improving locally ecological environment for human settlement of the city. Moreover, perhaps there are other candidates who have more comprehensive to protect citizens' basic rights not only in environmental protection field but also in development of local financial situations. The author does not consider the alternatives and merely emphasize the restrictions mentioned, which cannot render his recommendation persuasive.

In sum, the facts cited and the conclusions made cannot support the author's claim. To strengthen the argument, the author should provide stronger evidence to show his suggestion is advisable. Otherwise, it is difficult for people to follow his recommendation.