小弟生平第一次argument ，望各位大牛指教！！

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT85 - The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.

"Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow."

WORDS: 261 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2009/8/16 15:33:36

In this argument ,the arguer concludes that people in Myria shoud reelect Governor Winslow if Myrians want another four years like the past four years .To support the conclusion ,the arguer points out that Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity under Governor Winslow's leadership .As we can see from the arguer's enumerating ,Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's and the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent along with construction of new homes is up by one third .In addition the arguer reasons that Governor Winslow's opponent ,Mr.Homer ,has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened .But I think the argument suffers from several fallacies .

The threshold problem with this problem is that the arguer does not tell us what Myria used to be during the time before last four years .So if we make a assumption that the average wage of Myria was very low before 1970's ,such as one third lower than the national average wage ,then it is a not wonderful success that Governor Winslow achieves.The situation also does with the number of people who report being unemployed and construction of new homes .Moreover ,the arguer seems to neglect the number of people who are unemployed but do not report .So this statistic does not mean anything in this argument let alone try to let us believe how prosperous the city is under Governor Winslow's leadership .

Another problem ,play a important role in there, with this argument is that the arguer states that Mr .Homer has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened ,so Mr .Homer is not good as Governor Winslow .I must say ,in my mind ,it is not able to implies Mr .Homer can not be a good leader in Myria .Maybe there are much differece between Myria and that city where Mr.Homer is a mayor .What is more important is that the arguer does not point out what Mr.Homer do good with that city at all.The arguer uses one's advantage to contrast with another's disadvantage in a few fields ,which is unfair.

The last but not the least important , we had better do not let one person be a mayor in a same city for too much time ,because which can cause corruption easily.So I think the arguer neglects thinking about this point.

To sum up ,we can not find any reasons we should reelect Governor Winslow from this argument .The arguer's conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence which are cited in the analysis does not lead strong support to what the arguer maintains .Therefore ,if the arguer take into account the factors discussed above ,this argument may be filled with more logic and much easier to let us agree .