argument167 同主题写作 第一篇A 多多指教

samurai023UID：2361605

TOPIC: ARGUMENT167 - A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.

提纲：
1.30人的sample size过小，不足以得出令人信服的结论，应该有更多的实验结果，并且缺乏精密的仪器作客观
的记录，仅凭借时间长短和志愿者的主观感受来判断，并不科学。
2.推理过程的问题也很多，文中并没有提到第三周患者醒后的感觉，More or less tired? 缺少这一重要指标
的描述。
3.即使第三周醒后感觉很好，也不能断定其原因究竟是什么，可能是安眠药的lagged effect， 也可能是前两
周导致的疲劳使第三周睡的很好，也可能是经过前两周的适应，第三周已经比较熟悉周围的环境。



The speaker draw the conclusion that lavender can cure insomnia over a short period primarily from a three weeks study. Although this assertation seems at first glance to be an convincing one, a careful examination will enable us to find out that it actually suffers from several critical fallacies and therefore unpersuasive.

To begin with, the sample size on which the conclusion mainly based is too small to produce a substantial support for such a strong statement, which requires a large sample to minimize the sampling error and to eliminate the selective bias. It is differcult to know whether the result is an good approximation of the collectivity or just an unrepresentationally sample phenomenon. In addition, this experiment fails to record the physical status of every volunteer before and after sleep and only two factors--the time for sleeping and the subjective feeling--are taken into account, which can not provide neither an exactly nor an objective describe of the quality of sleep. The lacking of an substantial scientific methodology foundation weaken the significance of the conclusion.

Besides these deficiencies, there are still some errors in the process of deduction. First of all, this argument does not inform us the feeling of the volunteers when they wake up during the third week, which act as a crucial standard to judge the effect of lavender. As a result, we do not know whether they felt less tired than the foregone two weeks or even more. So it's inappropriate to judge the function of lavender according to such an inadequate and insufficient observation. In this sense, the reliability of the argument is dubitable

Moreover, even though they felt better than the previous two weeks, The arguer commits a fallacy of neglecting other relevant possibilities, a myriad of other factors, including the lagged effect of the sleeping medication, the accumulated tiredness during the first two week, and being familiar with the environment might just as likely be the cause of the melioration. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the argument’s conclusion.

In sum, both the methodological foudation and the logical deduction are questionable and prevent us from drawing any convincing argument. More experiments and observations are needed in order to strength the aeguer’s conclusion. The larger sample size we choose and the stricter method we apply, the more explicit the effect of lavender is.

abc021900UID：2369431

The speaker draw the conclusion that lavender can cure insomnia over a short period primarily from a three weeks study. Although this assertation seems at first glance to be an convincing one, a careful examination will enable us to find out that it actually suffers from several critical fallacies and therefore unpersuasive.

To begin with, the sample size on which the conclusion mainly based is too small to produce a substantial support for such a strong statement, which requires a large sample to minimize the sampling error and to eliminate the selective bias. It is differcult(difficult) to know whether the result is an good approximation of the collectivity or just an unrepresentationally sample phenomenon. In addition, this experiment fails to record the physical status of every volunteer before and after sleep and only two factors--the time for sleeping and the subjective feeling--are taken into account, which can not provide neither an exactly nor an objective describe of the quality of sleep. The lacking of an substantial scientific methodology foundation weaken the significance of the conclusion.（我觉得这段有个总起的句子好些，因为你后面有In addition了）

Besides these deficiencies, there are still some errors in the process of deduction. First of all, this argument does not inform us the feeling of the volunteers when they wake up during the third week, which act as a crucial standard to judge the effect of lavender. As a result, we do not know whether they felt less tired than the foregone two weeks or even more. So it's inappropriate to judge the function of lavender according to such an inadequate and insufficient observation. In this sense, the reliability of the argument is dubitable

Moreover, even though they felt better than the previous two weeks, The arguer commits a fallacy of neglecting other relevant possibilities, a myriad of other factors, including the lagged effect of the sleeping medication, the accumulated tiredness during the first two week, and being familiar with the environment might just as likely be the cause of the melioration.(好长的句子啊，第一句ts短些好一点) Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the argument’s conclusion.In sum, both the methodological foudation and the logical deduction are questionable and prevent us from drawing any convincing argument. More experiments and observations are needed in order to strength the aeguer’s conclusion. The larger sample size we choose and the stricter method we apply, the more explicit the effect of lavender is.

第一篇，楼主基础很扎实啊！

[ 本帖最后由 abc021900 于 2007-8-4 18:33 编辑 ]