argument65 [SJTU-ETB6 10G] 第6次作业

dacgileUID: 2367722

ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 498          TIME: 00:29:22          DATE: 2007-8-7 17:52:13

By citing the sales of their newest stores and a survey conducted by Cheeses of the World (CW) magazine, the author recommends that discontinuing stocking varieties of imported cheeses and concentrating on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits. Close scrutiny of the recommendation, however, reveals that it is logically flawed in several respects, which render it unconvincing.

To begin with, the mere fact that the five best-selling cheeses were all domestic cheeses at their newest stores is not enough to deduce that all the people is in favor of domestic cheeses. One problem with the sales is that the situation is only the one of newest stores; it is possible that other old stores were still in good sales with imported cheeses. What's more, the author never mention that if the newest stores were through all the areas where the old stores were located, if these newest ones were only located in some certain areas where people like domestic flavors best, the result does not say anything. In addition, the sales result were of last year when it is possible that the newest stores were conducting promotions on domestic cheeses due to their opening times; for that matter, the situation is entirely possible to change this year.

Furthermore, the survey conducted by the CW magazine is full of questions. First, how about the area of its releasing? If the areas are only a small scope which is much smaller than the areas that the cheese stores cover, the result is meaningless to the stores. Moreover, how many participants are there in the survey? If the amount of participants is limited, such as only tens of people, and then the result is of no use. Another question is that, is the CW magazine a authoritative one? If the magazine is only a nonsense one, then how can the author just relies on it to make a recommendation?

Last but not least, even if assume that the two facts above are indeed of convincing, still there is a question with the recommendation. The sales result at the newest stores only show that the best-selling cheeses were cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Then the question is, people only prefer some certain cheeses from a certain place, then how can the author recommend that they concentrate on all domestic cheeses? Another question is, even if the method proposed by the author indeed is of help, is this the best way to improve profits? It is entirely possible that the service quality is not as good as expected, so they can improve this. And they can enlarge the amount of the stores in all United States to gain profits. Without ruling out other possible profitable ways, the author cannot justifiably conclude that the way that he suggests is the best way.

In sum, the recommendation is not persuasive as it stands. To better strengthen it, the author should investigate more on the market and make a comparing of other possible profitable ways.