argument 73

仙女UID: 2179435

1.long-term car leasing is a different concept from leasing new car.

2.the arguer could not  infer the future trend from the past five year's situation.  

3.the number of  new car leases /purchases is not equal to the number of people leasing /buying new cars.

4.even if new car leases again outnumber purchases this year ,  the conclusion that the majority of drivers will be driving leased not individually owned cars may be wrong. (此处假设一人对一台车,且已知车的寿命为六年. 如果并非有很多人都在过去五年的第一年买车, 比如是在这五年中的第二年买车,买车人数的高峰就会出现在明年,即今年租/购车比例无意义.)

5.文中" the majority of drivers will be driving leased  cars"只是一个假设,并没有证据得到证明. 所以不能由此假设得出的结论(he majority of drivers will be driving leased, not individually owned, cars),做出最后的推论(we should change the focus of our business from selling cars to leasing them).

6.even if the majority of drivers will be driving leased  cars,  we can't  draw the result that we should change the focus to get more benefits. (利润是由多方面因素决定的,文中并未提供有关的证据,如:成本,买车/租车的价格,人均收入水平等等 .)

请大家多多指教!:)

[ 本帖最后由 仙女 于 2006-2-10 22:56 编辑 ]

neighborboyUID: 2184682

up!:)

neighborboyUID: 2184682

223:)"Even though a high percentage of Coleville City's businesses failed last year, we who live in Coleville City should keep in mind the fact that the Coleville region has attracted a great many new businesses over the last three years. It is well known that new businesses are, on average, much more likely to fail than are long-established ones, so the business failures should not be considered a sign of poor economic health. Indeed, many analysts regard the presence of a significant number of new companies among a region's businesses as a sign of economic health. Thus Coleville City appears to be in good, not poor, economic shape."

1.        last three years success in attracting new businesses cannot be used to justify the high percentage of business failure.
a. C has attracted most of new businesses over the first 2 years of the past 3 years, and only few new businesses last year .
b. the number of newly established companies exceed the number of failed ones.

2.        the assume that new businesses are much more likely to fail than are long-established ones, 不能保证 the business failures should not be considered a sign of poor economic health.
a. 没有给出明确的definition of “new businesses ”and “long-established businesses” .The new company established 3 years ago have gone into the right track after two or three years of development .
b. most of the failed businesses might be old companies, which can be a sign of poor economic health.
3.        the presence of a significant number of new companies among a region's businesses 不一定是 a sign of economic health.
a.        most new companies were declining, which can be a sign of poor economic health .
b.        the number of new companies is overabundant, it is not a good phenomenon.

neighborboyUID: 2184682

229:)"Our new plan will help us better protect our staff against exposure to toxic chemicals: we are fitting each new safety suit with an alarm that will sound in the main control booth when the suit is punctured. The control booth will notify the managers on duty, who will then take the necessary steps to ensure employees' safety. In addition to the obvious safety-related benefits, the fast reaction time will ensure minimal work stoppage and thus result in increased worker productivity and company profitability."

1. whether Our new plan will help us better protect our staff against exposure to toxic chemicals.
a.        fails to mention any detailed information about the toxic chemical. For example, what kind of toxic chemicals, gas, liquid or solid? how serious the toxic chemicals do affect the staff?
b.        alarming managers can not help to prevent the toxic chemicals harming workers since when this occurs the suit has already been punctured and workers have already contacted toxic chemicals.
c.        The situation of the old measures taken to protect staff is unkown.

2. No evidence shows that the safety-related benefits include increasing workers' productivity.
a. productivity is not direct linked with safety, the frequency of safety related affairs occurance is very low.
  b. the new suit might made workers quite uncomfortable, which can make workers easier to feel tired.
  c. other factors bearing on the productivity : working conditions, workers’ morale and so forth.
3. whether the company's profitability will be increased is unknown
a.        To import this kind of safety suit may cost a considerable amount of money additionally
b.        No evidence about revenue and general economic environment.

neighborboyUID: 2184682

241:)."When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumés and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany's clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine."
1.        the fact that last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not 不能说明Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services.
a.        the group of workers who desired to accept training might be more enthusiastic to find new job.
b.        The fact occurring last year may be just a accidental events.
2.        when XYZ was using Walsh eight years ago, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year 不能说明 W 不好
a. the situation over eight years ago is far from representative that can not be cited as evidence to evaluate whether the Walsh Personnel Firm is efficient or not.
b. the actual percentage of the employees who regain jobs has not been mentioned, so the comparison based on the number of job-regained workers between Walsh and Dalany is invalid.
3.Bigger staff and larger number of branch offices do not equal high efficiency. on the contrary, these factors might result in complex and tedious processes which decrease the efficiency in D.
4.The time clients took in finding jobs can not be convincing devoid of the quality of the jobs.
a.        are D's clients satisfied with there jobs ?
b.        what kind of jobs they get ?

neighborboyUID: 2184682

242 :)"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."
1.        Groveton's honor codes 不一定可以被推广到other colleges.
a.G students are very different from typical college students.
b. other factors effecting the reported incidence of cheating varies in different colleges.
2.        Groveton's honor code, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated , are obviously unfeasible.
a.        agreeing not to cheat does not mean the students actually abandoned cheating. since no one likes to being considered that they have the motivation in cheating.
b. it is probably that without compulsorily supervising by faculty members, the students would not notify the school board for each other even they cheat frequently.
c.it is unfair to judge whether a student have cheated merely depending on other's suspicion. maybe someone is so malicious that intends to pit others in the embarrassment.
3.the data can not prove the honor code were far more successful
a.        The survey show that cases of cheating per year were reported is decreased does not demonstrate the cases of cheating actually delined.
b.        No detailed evidence was offered about the percentage of students reported cheating
c. whether the improvement should owe to the honor code is questionable, there is other more crucial reasons contribute to the amelioration, such as rational academic endeavor management, taking more experiments to qualify the students other than the paper-based examinations?
4. The survey can not 说明 honor code is actually effective to reduce the cheating rate in the exam .
  a. the respondents 是否representative of all the students.
b.whether the students tell the truth. the students do not want to change the present sysmen merely beacause it enables them to cheat more easily.
c.whether what they do in the future will be consistent with what they said today.

neighborboyUID: 2184682

239:) "When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."

1.        youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours不能说明（does not follow） the total crime rate drops too.
a.        there are other type of crime , such as adult crime.
b.        the incidence of crime before or after that period of time increased.

2.        no crime has been reported In W's town square, does not mean the total crime rates drops too.
a.        the criminal might choose other places.
b.        no crime reported does not ensure there is no crime since most crimes occur in non-open ways.
c. As a place where people can congregate for fun or for relaxation, W's town square is supervised by the policemen strictly.

3.false analogy between D and W. （comparable 可比的）
a. W's crime might involved a lot of teen-agers whereas D's crime are mainly commited by adults.
b. W's crime might occurred frequently at night while D's crime are mainly happed during the daytime.

仙女UID: 2179435

https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... page%3D4&page=1

仙女UID: 2179435

41:)"Recently we signed a contract with The Fly-Away Pest-Control Company to provide pest-control services at our fast-food warehouse in Palm City, but last month we discovered that over $20,000 worth of food there had been destroyed by pest damage. Meanwhile, the Buzzoff Pest-Control Company, which we have used for many years, continued to service our warehouse in Wintervale, and last month only $10,000 worth of the food stored there had been destroyed by pest damage. Even though the price charged by Fly-Away is considerably lower, our best means of saving money is to return to Buzzoff Company for all our pest-control services."
1.        判断两公司表现的好坏，
a.        需要提供the percentage of destroyed food in the total food stock.
b.        only a month doesn’t provide enough persuasion.
2.        还有其他因素对food的影响是Pest-Control Company不能控制的(over which companies had no control)。
a.两地是否存放相同种类的food
b. P 地的climate and other natural environment 使food be prone to be destroyed by pest damage than W地.
3.        W has been used for many years, 它对our company 的情况更加熟悉， 也许正因为如此，W did better last month.但如果经过一段时间的了解(collecting more information about our company for a period)，B can do well the same as W, or even better.
4.        即使选用B，我们也不一定可以达到the purpose of saving money .
if the additional money charged by B might exceed the money saved by means of avoiding food to be destroyed by pest damage.
5.        还有其他很多途径可以用来save money.
a.        选择其他more efficient 的Pest-Control Company
b.        租用inexpensive fast-food warehouse

仙女UID: 2179435

42:)"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
https://bbs.gter.net/viewthre ... ge=1&highlight=

1.        Even if the number of foreign visitors arriving at B's main airport doubled and per capita income increased by ten percent,不能说明Bellegea的tourism真的发展了。
a.        是否the actual tourists visiting B increased?
b.        收入的上升是由于B国在其他领域的发展
2.        即使Bellegea的tourism真的发展了，那么也不一定是因为去年开展的生态旅游的advertising campaign的功劳。
a.        B government carried out a new legislation concerning 旅游业的发展
b.        New attractive natural sights 被开发
c. 仅有去年一年的情况还不足以说明问题。
3. 即使 we begin to promote ecotourism，也不一定会provide more income and preserve the natural environment，过多的旅游者的活动可能干扰自然生态平衡（disrupt the ecological balance ）而且，我们还可以通过其他方法来达到目的（reach the purpose）如：发展工业，建立自然保护区

4.我国聘请the current director也不一定会ensure that our advertising campaign is successful。
a. 广告推广活动的成功不一定是the current director的功劳。
b. 即使是the current director的功劳，但是在P国出任consultant for the campaign，由于两国可能有的差异而失败。
况且，我国可以通过其他措施来guarantee the success of our advertising campaign ,新颖的创意，多条途径containing newspaper , TV, bus and so on.

仙女UID: 2179435

43"Despite its downtown location, the Rialto Movie Theater, a local institution for five decades, must make big changes or close its doors forever. It should follow the example of the new Apex Theater in the mall outside of town. When the Apex opened last year, it featured a video arcade, plush carpeting and seats, and a state-of-the-art sound system. Furthermore, in a recent survey, over 85 percent of respondents reported that the high price of newly released movies prevents them from going to the movies more than five times per year. Thus, if the Rialto intends to hold on to its share of a decreasing pool of moviegoers, it must offer the same features as Apex."
1.        没有证据说明R一定要改革，否则就会倒闭。
2.        即使R要make big changes也不一定要follow the example of A
a.        没有证据表明A是more profitable than R，而且成本很高
b.        A 虽然装潢豪华，有advanced equipment, but may be unpopular because of 高收费.
3.        survey
a.        是否有效（样本的数量和代表性）
b.        没有提供原来每年总共去几次，不能说明减少的幅度
c.        没有说明moviegoers的人数的变化趋势
4.        没有证据证明offering the same features as A就可以使R hold on to its share of movie market，
a. A和R之间存在很大的差异：A是一家新建于the mall outside of town 的电影院，大部分顾客是去购物的；R是一家位于downtown 有50年历史的老电影院，看电影的人包括老顾客和慕名而来的新顾客.
b.即使要学A,其改建的成本会很高，不一定可行。
c. Such a great change may cause loss of customers.
5.        想要hold on to its share of movie market，还有其他手段：
a.        discarding the luxurious decoration of Apex and choosing common but equally comfortable environment for audiences, which can let clients feel satisfied with low price .
b.        began an advertising campaign to attract potential moviegoers

  


44"Monarch Books should open a café in its store to attract more customers and better compete with Regal Books, which recently opened a café. Monarch, which has been in business at the same location for more than twenty years, has a large customer following because it is known for its wide selection of books on all subjects. Opening the café would clearly attract more customers. The café would require relatively little space. Space could be made for the café by discontinuing the children's book section, which will likely become less popular given that the last national census indicated a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten."

1.        R recently opened a café, 但并不一定profitable.
2.        M followed the example of R,也不一定to attract more customers and better compete with R.
a.        人们并没有把喝咖啡放在很重要的地位，大多数人并不关心；
b.        为了free up the space for the café 而被移走的书，使一部分顾客流失。
3.        其它方法来达到目的。
a.        尽量收集更多的书种
b.        扩大藏书量
c.        began an advertising campaign to attract potential readers.
4.        即使a significant decline in the percent of the population who are under age ten ，不能说明book section likely become less popular and need less space.
a.        全国的情况不一定代表本地
b.        即使本地儿童少了，不说明来看书的儿童少
c.        来看儿童的数目少了，不一定看儿童书的需求或空间就少了，也会有其他年龄的读者。
5.        即使儿童书部的部分空间用于open a café，带来的disadvantages might outweigh advantages.
a. disadvantages :
b. advantages :