Argument个人总结提纲，请提宝贵意见！

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Argument：根据四月份机经，在频率达到10以上的题目中，按照题目频率从低到高来选择，以防和全文写作冲突以防和全文写作冲突，每次5题。
题号       频率
18             10
40             10
85             10
162           10
6               11

18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.

"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该回复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。

1.Are the two county comparable ?
2.The arguer’s conclusion that the safety effort has failed is based on a false assumption that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. The survey time lasts too short.
3.The feasibility of increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads without taking into account of costs and some other factors.
4.The fact of 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago cannot indicate a low number of accidents. Perhaps other causes contribute to the decrease of accidents.

40. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.

"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."

1. Survey samples, quantity, and representative?
2. The author provides no evidence to indicate that natural-food market has more profits than Excello.
3. False assumption.
The only fact that 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit cannot indicate that our should stock a full line of organic food products.
4. The feasibility to begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets.

85.The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.

"Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow."

过去四年中在州长Winslow的领导下，Myria经历了空前的繁荣。今年平均工资提高，而且比1970年以来的任何一年都要高，报告失业的人数下降了10％，新住房的建造增加了三分之一。相比之下，过去四年中Winslow的竞争对手Homer出任了另一个市的市长，那个城市只开展了很少的新型商业。如果Myria的居希望未来四年和过去四年一样，他们就应该再次选举Winslow。

1. Are the two cities comparative? It’s highly possible that the other city led by Mr. Homer did better than Myria in increasing average wage, employment and construction of new homes.
2. Other reasons may contribute to the prosperity of Myria city rather than Winslow’s leadership such as inflation.
3. The fact that the other city led by Mr. Homer opened only a small number of new businesses have opened cannot indicate that this city has not enjoyed unprecedented prosperity.
4. We cannot simply infer the future from the past.

162.A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.

最近一次研究显示居住在北美大陆的人患慢性疲劳和慢性抑郁症的数量分别为居住在亚洲大陆居的9倍和31倍。有趣的是，亚洲人平均每天食用20克大豆，而北美人几乎不吃。人们发现大豆含有一种具有抗病效的植物化合物单黄酮。因此，北美人应该考虑经常食用大豆作为预防疲劳和抑郁的方法。
1. The credibility of the recent study.
It may be a selective sample. What’s the quantity of the study?
Who conducted the study and are the respondents representative of the overall population there?
2. Other factors may result in more chronic fatigue and depression in North America rather than lacking of soy ingestion.
3. False analogy
We can not apply the same method which are fit for Asian to North America due to different habits and customers.
4. Other alternatives can help American to remove chronic and depression.

6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士俱乐部也在65英里以外；因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C
Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。显然C Note将会。

1.false assumption
The fact that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away undoubtedly and oppositely indicates that jazz music was not popular in Monroe.
2.Vague data and selective sample
The number of 100,000 people may only be a small part compared the total number of population in Monroe.
The typical jazz fan who spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment can’t representative the population in general in Monroe, moreover, it’s a nationwide study that may not reflect the condition in Monroe.
3. no causal relationship
That several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight bears no relationship with a tremendously profit, let alone about causal relationship.
Even people there like Jazz, may don’t like buying disc from C note club.
4. lack of feasibility
The C note club may face fierce competition with other enterprises.

[ 本帖最后由 joey.liu 于 2006-6-5 20:30 编辑 ]

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题号        频率
144        11
176        11
20        12
127        12
204        12


144.According to a poll of 200 charitable organizations, donations of money to nonprofit groups increased by nearly 25 percent last year, though not all charities gained equally. Religious groups gained the most (30 percent), followed by environmental groups (23 percent), whereas educational institutions experienced only a very small increase in donations (3 percent). This poll indicates that more people are willing and able to give money to charities but that funding for education is not a priority for most people. These differences in donation rates must result from the perception that educational institutions are less in need of donations than are other kinds of institutions.

根据一项针对200个慈善组织的调查，去年对于非营利团体的捐款上升了将近25％，而并不是所有组织都获得了同样的增幅。宗教团体增幅最大（30％），其次为环境组织（23％），而教育机构所获捐款仅有少量增长（3％）。这一调查说明有更多的人愿意而且有能力为慈组织捐款，但资助教育并不是人们的首选。这种捐款数额上的差异一定是由于人们认为教育机构没有其他组织更需要资助的观念而导致的。

1.selective sample
Are the 200 charitable organizations can represent the overall level throughout the nation? It is equally possible that only some organizations in one area conducted the poll.

2.vague data
The arguer fails to provide the original amount of donations which were gained to religious groups, environment groups and educational institutions. Then we cannot infer that education is not a priority for most people.

3.These differences in donation rates may result from other reasons rather than the perception that educational institutions are less in need of donations than other kinds of institutions. Perhaps the donation for education has been enough or people did not know these donation information at all and this occurrence was only an random behavior.

176.The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company.

"A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."

最近一次研究表明，当前仅在Alta生产的新的人造黄油Venadial实际可以降低胆固醇指标。Venadial从松树树脂中提炼而来，它通过一种现在还未完全明确的代谢反应发生作用。然而，在那些每天食用Venadial的研究对象中，胆固醇指标下降了10－15％，心脏病发病率下降了三分之一。而且，这种新的人造黄油非常受欢迎以至于在Alta的商店中往往一抢而光。因此，如果本公司取得在Venadial的全球独家代理权，我们的利润肯定能够在很短的时间内显著增长。

1.selective sample
Are the participants in the study representative of the overall consumers of Venadial.

2.Other factors may result in the decrease of cholesterol levels and the risk of heart attack rather than Venadial.

3.Advantage and disadvantage
The arguer does not mention if there is some side effects on consumers.
Moreover, Venadial may be only fit for Alta citizens rather than other people.

4.Feasibility to obtain the exclusive right to see Venaidal internationally.
First, they would face dramatic competition since Venadial has been so popular among people. Second, they would risk failure due to they have not investigated the world market regarding the demand and validated that whether there’s some potential dangers.

20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."

Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。

1.are the two islands comparable in population, size and accidents?

2.The arguer provides no evidence to prove that the accidents in Balmer Island are brought forth by mopeds and bicycle.

3.Feasibility of limiting the number of rentals.
Perhaps the number of accident would increase since people in Balmer may buy moped or bicycle or car. The measure may reduce the revenue of rental companies and influence people’s daily life there.

4.No evidence to indicate that the decrease of accidents in Torseau results from the limits on moped rentals. Other factors may lead to the decrease of accidents.

127.The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president.

"In an effort to improve our employees' productivity, we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities, such as shopping or playing games. By installing software to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic at Climpson, and improve our overall profits."

为提高我们的员工的生产效率，我们应该在员工的终端上加装电子监控来监视员工对互联网的使用。如果我们要减少用于私人以及娱乐活动，比如购物或玩游戏的工作时间，在终端上使用互联网的员工必须要被确认并且受到惩罚。通过在公司电脑上安装检测员工使用互联网的软件，我们可以防止员工浪费时间，并培养Climpson更好的工作氛围，以及提高我们的整体利润。

1.False assumption
The arguer fails to provide evidence that whether employees use the internet to do personal or recreational activities and thereby has based on a false assumption.

2.The feasibility to install such software
First of all, To install this kind of software would spend much money.
Second, the software may influence employees’ work efficiency.

3.Other alternatives to improve productivity.
Maybe it’s not because employees use the internet to do personal or recreational activities that results in the low productivity. Other alternatives can help improve the efficiency, such as improving the working process and changing working environment.

204.The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a farming publication.

"With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand for sugar will no doubt decline. Therefore, farmers in our state should use the land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich in protein and low in sugar. Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that crop were quite high."

随着对于健康饮食需求的持续报导，以及关于食用过多的糖对于健康危害的新研究，全国对于糖的需求无疑将会下降。因此，本州的农场主应该把他们现在种植蔗糖的土地用于种植花生，花生富含蛋白质而糖的含量低。邻近国家Palin的农夫去年极大增加了花生的产量，他们在这种作物上的收入相当可观。

1.false assumption
First, the arguer falsely assumes that due to the continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, people would have sugar less than before. Second, the arguer fails to confirm whether nationwide people have had excessive sugar before.  

2.different scopes
The nationwide sugar decline of demand might influence the demand in our state.

3.comparative
Are the two countries comparative, such as earth conditions, demand of peanuts?

4.we cannot simply infer the future from the past.
It is with high likelihood that the supply of peanuts exceeds its supply and resulting in low average price, thereby leading to low total revenues.

[ 本帖最后由 joey.liu 于 2006-6-6 21:17 编辑 ]

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题号        频率
213        12
88          13
120        13
150        13
156        13

213.The following appeared in a memorandum from the owner of Armchair Video, a chain of video rental stores

"Because of declining profits, we must reduce operating expenses at Armchair Video's ten video rental stores. Raising prices is not a good option, since we are famous for our special bargains. Instead, we should reduce our operating hours. Last month our store in downtown Marston reduced its hours by closing at 6:00 P.M. rather than 9:00 P.M. and reduced its overall inventory by no longer stocking any film released more than two years ago. Since we have received very few customer complaints about these new policies, we should now adopt them at all other Armchair Video stores as our best strategies for improving profits."

由于利润下降，我们必须压缩Armchair Video十家录像租赁店的营业开支。涨价并不是一个好选择，因为我们就是因特价销售而知名的。因此我们应该缩短营业时间。上个月我们位于闹市区Marston的店营业时间从以前的9点缩减到下午6点，并通过不再保留发行两年以上的电影来减少总库存量。由于我们所收到的客户关于这些新政策的投诉很少，我们应该在所有Armchair Video的商店实施这些政策作为增加利润的最好策略。
1.no causal relationship
The fact that they are famous for special bargains bears no causal correlation with that rising prices is not a good option.
2.comparative
Are the store in downtown Marston and other stores comparative? Maybe they have different customers which determine when they should close door.
3.false dilemma/different concepts
The fact that very few customer complained the new policies can indicate that most customers did not care reducing operating hours; Perhaps they have other ways to release their complaints.
4.advantage and disadvantage
Reducing overall inventory by no longer stocking any film released more than two years ago would not be good choice, perhaps their main source of revenues lies in these videos.

88.The following appeared in a newsletter about health published in the country of Sauria.

"According to Sauria's leading nutritional experts, a diet high in complex carbohydrates, and low in fat is optimal for good health and longevity. Because this was the diet of the people who lived in ancient Sauria, one would expect them to have had long and healthy lives. Yet the mummified remains of Sauria's ruling classes from two to three thousand years ago show the existence of many medical problems among the ancient Saurians, including dental problems, elevated blood pressure, obesity, heart disease, and early mortality. Clearly, the diet of the ancient Saurians was responsible for these problems. The high incidence of high blood pressure, obesity, and heart disease in Sauria today even among those who have tried low-fat, high-carbohydrate diets further proves that Sauria's leading nutritional experts are wrong."

根据Sauria的权威营养专家的看法，碳水化合物含量高而脂肪含量低的饮食对于健康和长寿是最为有利的。由于古代Sauria的居所吃的就是这类饮食，我们可以推测他们应该健康而且长寿。然而一两千年前Sauria统治阶级的木乃伊残骸显示古代Sauria人存在很多疾病，包括牙齿疾患，高血压，肥胖，心脏病和早夭。显然，古代Sauria人的饮食是这些疾患的原因。今天Sauria那些既便尝试了低脂肪高碳水化合物饮食的人中也存在的高血压，肥胖和心脏病的较高发病率进一步证明了Sauria权威营养学家是错误的。
1.comparative
Are people today and ancient Saurian comparative, such as habit, food resources and so on.
2.Different scopes and vague data
The Sauria’s ruling classes may not represent the overall population throughout the whole Sauria.
And the arguer fails to provide enough evidence regarding the quantity of people who had medical problems.
3.Other factors may contribute to the medical problems among the ancient Saurians and people today.
4.We cannot simply infer today or future from the ancient days.
From many aspects, people today have changed a lot; hence, we cannot infer today’s condition from the ancient times.

120.The following appeared in a health newsletter.

"A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicates that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of accidents caused by bicycling has increased 200 percent. These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and they take more risks as a result. Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets."

一项为期十年的对于在骑自行车时戴头盔的作用的研究显示，10年前，所有骑车人中大约有35％报告说他们戴头盔，现在这个比例接近80％。然而另外一项调查显示在相同的十年期间，因骑车引起的事故数量增加了200％。这些结果说明骑车人因为戴着头盔而感到更安全，因而导致他们面临更大的危险。因此，为减少自行车事故中严重伤害的数量，政府应该更多地对人们加强自行车安全的教育，并提供鼓励或要求骑车人戴头盔的课程。

1. selective sample and the credibility of the study.
2. Other factors may result in the more accidents than before instead of that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing hamlets and they take more risk as a result.
3. Other alternatives to ensure people about bicycle safety rather than concentrating more on educating people.
4. The feasibility to concentrate less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.

150.The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.

"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."

全球两栖动物数量的下降清楚地说明全球空气和水质的污染。在加州Yosemite国家公园对于两栖动物所进行的两次研究证实了我的结论。1915年公园中有7中两栖动物，每种的数量都很丰富。然而到了1992年在公园中只观察到4种两栖动物，并且每种动物的数量都显著下降。Yosemite公园两栖动物数量的下降曾被归因于始于1920年的在公园水域引入鲑鱼的行为（我们知道鲑鱼捕食两栖动物的卵）。但鲑鱼的引入不会是Yosemite两栖动物数量下降的真正原因应为它并不能解释全球范围的数量下降。

1. False assumption
The arguer falsely assumes that the amphibians have drastically reduced all over the world; but he does not provide enough evidence to justify this.
2. Scant data cannot reach convincing conclusion.
Only two studies cannot confirm a so significant theory regarding the relationship of the decrease of amphibians and global pollution of water and air.
3. Besides trout, other factors may lead to the drastically decrease of amphibians.

156.The following is taken from an advertisement placed in a weekly business magazine by the Dickens Academy.

"We distributed a survey to senior management at International Mega-Publishing, Inc. The result of the survey clearly indicates that many employees were well prepared in business knowledge and computer skills, but lacked interpersonal skills to interact gracefully with customers. International Mega-Publishing decided to improve customer satisfaction by sending their newly hired employees to our one-day seminars. Since taking advantage of our program, International Mega-Publishing has seen a sharp increase in sales, an indication that the number of their disgruntled customers has declined significantly. Your company should hire Dickens and let us turn every employee into an ambassador for your company."

我们对International Mega-Publishing, Inc的高层管理人员进行了一次调查。调查结果清楚地显示很多员工在商业知识和计算机技能方面准备充足，但是缺乏与客户得体沟通的人际交往能力。International Mega-Publishing决定通过让他们的新员工参加我们为期一天的研讨会来提高客户满意度。在参加了我们的课程之后，International Mega-Publishing的销量急剧上升，这表明不满意的顾客数量显著下降。你们公司应该聘用Dickens来让我们把每名员工变成你们公司的大使.
1.selective sample
What the size of the study? Who conducted the study? Are the senior managers representative?
2.Other factors rather than taking advantage of the program may contribute to the sharp increase in sales.
3.Are the two companies comparative, such as employee structure, level?

[ 本帖最后由 joey.liu 于 2006-6-8 16:14 编辑 ]

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题号        频率
209        13
29          14
100        14
169        14
12          15

209.The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.

"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."

在今年的过去三个季度里，在我们总裁Pat Salvo的领导下，利润显著下降。因此，我们应该给予她优厚的补偿并要求她辞职。我们应该任命Rosa
Winnings来代替她的职位。Rosa当前是Starlight
Jewelry的总裁，这家公司的利润在过去几年中显著增长。尽管我们要付给Rosa两倍于我们付给Pat的工资，但这将是值得的因为我们马上可以看到利润的显著增长。
1. different concepts, other objective factors may contribute to the fallen profits.
2. Are the two companies comparative? Different scopes, one is last three quarters, another is the past several years.
3. The feasibility to appoint Rosa Winnings as president from the salary.
4. We might not infer the future from the past.

29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.

当Ida McAllister在四年前竞选Lake City市的市长的时候，她失败了，甚至未能赢得30％的选票。但从那以后，McAllister公开了她对环境事业的支持。因而，如果她宣布她将会让Lake City所有公园禁止汽车通行的话将会是十分明智的，这里有Plainsville前市长Alecia Yu的先例。在一小群关注该问题的市的建议下，Yu市长在Plainsville的所有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量。这一行动对于Lake City的市将会有极大吸引力，这些市大部分参加了社区循环再生项目，也会保证McAllister在这次市长竞选中获得成。
1. Are the two cities comparable? The success in Plainville may not be duplicated for Lake city.
2. The arguer provides no evidence that McAllister failed to be mayor years ago was due to her measures to environment. Perhaps other factors resulted in her failure.
3. no evidence to indicate that the action in Plainville would have a great appeal to Lake city and the prediction that most of citizens of Lake City who participate in the community’s recycling program would guarantee McAllister’s success would work.
4. McAllister may be not competent in other fields such administration and organization rather than solving pollution problems.


100.The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto Manufacturing Company.

"Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter, we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a large number of residents who are not currently employed."

由于上个季度我们主要产品的定单增加了200％多，我们应该马上通过在Summit City建造一座新工厂来扩大生产。Summit City是新工厂的理想位置，因为那里的地产税比较低，具有可以立即购买的大片土地，以及大量尚未就业的居。
1.Different concepts
The increased sales cannot indicate that we need to build a new plant.
Perhaps our productivity is enough for all the orders.
2.We may not infer the future from the past.
We should not simply predict the future from the last quarter. Maybe all orders of the year were booked in last quarter.
3. non causal relationship
To build a plant, they need to consider other more important factors rather than low property taxes, extensive blocks and unemployed residents may not the
4. false comparison
Maybe many other better places than Summit City are suitable to build plant.




169.The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.

"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers."

对于同样位于小城市的Bronston学院所作的一些研究发现，不论男性或女性教授，当他们的配偶在相同的城市有工作时，就更乐于在这些小城市生活。因此，为了吸引最有天分的教师和研究人员加入我们的员工队伍并提高我们员工的士气，我们Pierce大学应该为每一个我们所雇佣的新员工的配偶提供就业机会。尽管我们并不期望所有就业机会都会被接受或被看作是理想的工作，我们在这项努力上的投入显然是值得的，因为如果新教授的配偶有就业机会，他们将更乐于在我们学校就职。
1. Selective sample? Who conducted the studies? Are the people in the studies representative? What’s the quantity of the several studies.
2. Are the two colleges comparative?
3. The feasibility to offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member. Maybe Pierce college cannot provide so many jobs for them.

12.The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.

"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."

在过去，Alta工厂的工伤事故比邻近的Panoply工厂多30％，Panoply的每班工作时间比我们的短一个小时。专家相信导致很多工伤事故的重要因素就是工人的疲劳和睡眠不足。因此，为减少Alta的工伤事故数量并提高生产数量，我们应该把我们的三个班次的工作时间每个都减少一小时，从而我们的雇员将有更充足的睡眠。

1.The more on-the-job accidents may result from other reasons rather than longer working time, such as working environment, working strength.
2.Are the two Industries comparable in size, or nature?
3.fail to consider the advantage and disadvantage of shortening the work shifts.
4.vague data about the number of accidents.
5.no evidence to indicate that employees have no enough sleep.

[ 本帖最后由 joey.liu 于 2006-6-10 20:35 编辑 ]

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61.The following appeared in a report by the School District of Eyleria.

"Nationally, the average ratio of computers to students in kindergarten through grade 12 (K-12) is 1:5. Educators indicate that this is very good ratio. This means that across the country, all students have access to and can use computers daily in their classrooms. In Eyleria's K-12 schools, the ratio of computers to students is 1:7. This number is sufficient to ensure that all of Eyleria's students, by the time they graduate from high school, will be fully proficient in the use of computer technology. Thus, there is no reason to spend any of the schools' budget on computers or other technology in the next few years."

在全国范围内，从幼儿园到12年级（K-12）学生所拥有电脑的比例是每5人有一台。教育界人士指出这是个很好的比例。这意味着在全国，所有学生都能够在他们的教室中每天接触和使用电脑。在Eyleria的K-12学校，电脑与学生数量的比例是1：7。这一数字足以保证Eyleria的所有学生到他们高中毕业的时候，将会拥有使用电脑的充足能力。因此，在未来几年没有理由花费任何学校的预算于电脑或其他技术。

1. false assumption
First，the arguer provides no evidence that the ration 1:5 is enough for students to use computer daily in their classrooms. Second, due the discrepancy of different regions, the ratio is not average across the country.
2. no causal relationship
First, the arguer cannot war
3. necessity and sufficiency of the solution

89.The following appeared in a newspaper published in the state of Celera.

"Speed limits on our state's highways should be eliminated in order to increase our state's prosperity. Because greater speed means more efficient travel, commercial deliveries will be faster, increasing business profits. Elimination of speed limits will also make driving more attractive to motorists, so that more people will use the highways, providing more highway toll revenues for the state. At the same time, safety on our highways will not be affected: daytime speed limits were eliminated last year in the western states of our country, and no significant increase in the number of accidents in these states has been reported."

本州高速公路的限速应该被取消以促进本州的繁荣。由于更高的速度意味着更高效的交通，商业物流将会更快捷，从而增加商业利润。限速的取消同样也会使驾驶对于司机更有吸引力，因而更多的人将会使用高速公路，为本州带来更多的路费收入。同时，高速路的安全并不会受到影响：本国西部州去年取消了白天的限速，那些州上报的事故数量并没有显著增加。

1. vague data
The arguer does not provide the accurate speed which is requested to eliminate.
2. no causal relationship
The elimination of speed limits may result in some other consequences instead of attracting more motorists.
3. the advantages and disadvantages
We should consider both the advantages and disadvantages to cancel the speed limits.
4. are the two states comparative?

201.The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat.

Forsythe的居选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项调查的回答显示，他们的饮食习惯比十年前更加贴近政府的营养建议。而且，含有kiran的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现kiran是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被sulia的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食品。

1. selective sample, are the respondents representative?
2. different concepts
The fourfold increase in sales of kiran which can reduce cholesterol may not indicate that the local residents have adopted better lifestyles. First, we are not sure if kiran can produce other side effects except reducing cholesterol; second, perhaps it is just because that citizens there have had too much food containing cholesterol that lead them to buy more kiran to reduce their cholesterol.
3. other factors contribute to the decrease of sulia.
First, the food sulia that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat may not imply that it is not healthy; second, other factors may result in the declined sales.
4. Lacking of other convincing evidences to prove that the citizens there adopted healthier lifestyles, the conclusion is unwarranted.

212.The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company.

"In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency, which has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink."

在过去，Patriot汽车的车型已经过时了，我们的汽车没有竞争对手的车卖的好。但现在，由于我国很多地区的新驾驶员数量飞速增加，我们可以通过向这一日渐增长的人群出售车辆来增加我们的市场份额。因此，我们应该停止生产最老的型号而集中力量生产新颖的汽车。我们也可以通过把我们的广告交给Youth广告公司来促进市场推广的成，这家公司曾经为本国销量最大的软饮料进行过成的促销。
1. other factors result in the decrease sales rather than Patriot have been old-fashioned.
2. different concepts
The increase number of newly licensed may not indicate that there would be many people to buy cars.
3. the advantages and disadvantages of discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing.
4. the feasibility to switch advertising to the Youth Advertising agency.

222.The following article appeared in a recent issue of a college newspaper.

"Among all students who graduated from Hooper University over the past five years, more physical science majors than social science majors found permanent jobs within a year of graduation. In a survey of recent Hooper University graduates, most physical science majors said they believed that the prestige of Hooper University's physical science programs helped them significantly in finding a job. In contrast, social science majors who found permanent employment attributed their success to their own personal initiative. Therefore, to ensure that social science majors find permanent jobs, Hooper University should offer additional social science courses and hire several new faculty members who already have national reputations in the social sciences."

在过去五年从Hooper大学毕业的所有学生中，物理学专业的毕业生在毕业一年内找到固定工作的人数要多于社会科学的毕业生。在一次对于Hooper大学最近的毕业生的调查中，多数物理学专业的学生说他们认为Hooper大学物理学科的声望在他们找工作的过程中起到了极大的作用。相比之下，找到固定工作的社会科学毕业生则把他们的成归因于他们自己的能动性。因此，为保证社科毕业生找到固定工作，Hooper大学应该提供更多的社科课程并雇佣一些已经在社科领域获得全国声誉的新教员。

1. selective sample, are the graduates representative?
2. other factors contribute to find permanent jobs.
3. failing to consider the feasibility to offer additional science courses and hire several new faculty members.

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10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.

"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."

Batavia的农业部门报告说全国奶牛农庄的数量比10年前增加了25％。然而就在同一时期，当地Excello Food Market牛奶的价格从每加仑$1.5上涨到了$3.0。为防止农场主在牛奶供应量明显增加的情况下获取过多的利润，Batavia的政府应限制牛奶的零售价。这种限价对于保证更低的牛奶价格和充足的供应是必需的。

1.different scopes between nationwide farms and Batavia area farms.
The arguer false assumes that the increased number of dairy farms throughout the country applies equally to Batavia.
2.two false causal relationships
One is that even assuming the number of dairy farms in Batavia is now greater that before does not mean that it has supplied adequate supply. The second is that the increased price in Excello Food Market can’t support that farmers have received excessive profits without considering some factors such as inflation, cost.
3.feasibility to regulate retails milk prices.
4.The government provides no evidence that it can ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers.

59.The following appeared in an article in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977. These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

根据现有的医疗记录，过去300年中最严重的六次世界范围的流感大流行分别发生于1729，1830，1918，1957和1977。这些都是太阳黑子活动剧烈的年份，即：地球所接收的太阳能比平常年份多的多的年份。因此，那些特别易患流感的人群应该避免长时间暴露于日光下。

1. The records lacks of credibility. Many others may have not recorded.
2. no causal relationship between worldwide flu epidemics and sunspot activity
Other factors may result in the flu epidemics.
3. incomplete solution to avoid prolonged exposure to the sun.

161.In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.

在一次由Leeville大学所举行的关于Leeville居阅读习惯的调查中，多数被访者说他们倾向于阅读古典文学。然而，由相同的研究人员随后进行的调查发现Leeville所有公共图书馆中最经常被借阅的书是神秘小说。因此，我们可以得出结论，第一次调查的被访者错误地表达了他们的阅读习惯

1. the representative of the first study.
2. the credibility of the follow-up study
3. other factors may result in that mystery novel was frequently checked out.

191.The following is a letter from a professor at Xanadu College to the college's president.

"The development of an extensive computer-based long-distance learning program will enhance the reputation of Xanadu College. This program would allow more students to enroll in our courses, thereby increasing our income from student tuition. Traditional courses could easily be adapted for distance learners, as was shown by the adaptation of two traditional courses for our distance learning trial project last year. Also, by using computer programs and taped lectures, faculty will have fewer classroom obligations and more time to engage in extensive research, thereby enhancing the reputation of Xanadu."

发展一套大型计算机远程教学系统将会提高Xanadu学院的声誉。这一系统将使更多学生报名参加我们的课程，从而提高我们的学费收入。传统教学可以很容易地改编成远程教学内容，这已经被去年我们远程教学实验系统的两个传统课程的改编所证实。而且，通过使用计算机程序和录音教学，员工可以减少去教室的次数并有更多的时间从事大规模的科研活动，从而提高Xanadu的声誉。

1. The arguer provides no details how the adaptation has been validated.
2. The advantages and disadvantage to use computer programs and taped lectures.
3. the feasibility to develop the computer-based long-distance learning program. Costs

joey.liuUID: 2207101

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178        17
202        17
160        18
166        18

154.The following appeared in the editorial section of a health and fitness magazine.

"In a study of the effects of exercise on longevity, medical researchers tracked 500 middle-aged men over a 20-year period. The subjects represented a variety of occupations in several different parts of the country and responded to an annual survey in which they were asked: How often and how strenuously do you exercise? Of those who responded, the men who reported that they engaged in vigorous outdoor exercise nearly every day lived longer than the men who reported that they exercised mildly only once or twice a week. Given the clear link that this study establishes between longevity and exercise, doctors should not recommend moderate exercise to their patients but should instead encourage vigorous outdoor exercise on a daily basis."

在一次关于锻炼对寿命的影响的调查中，医务人员在20年的期间跟踪了500名中年男子。调查对象覆盖了全国若干不同地区的多种职业，他们每年回答一次问卷，在问卷中他们被问道：你锻炼的频率和强度如何？在那些回答了问卷的人中，那些报告说自己几乎每天都参加激烈的户外运动的人比那些报告说自己每周仅仅温和地锻炼一两次的人活的长。鉴于这一调查所建立的长寿与锻炼之间的明显联系，医生不应该建议患者进行温和的运动而应该鼓励他们每天都参加激烈的户外运动。

1. selective sample
First, although the survey covered in several different parts of the country, the survey may cannot representative of the overall population since everyone have their health condition. Secondly, medical researchers only tracked middle-aged men, how about women?
2. Other factors may contribute to the men who reported that they engaged in vigorous outdoor exercise nearly every day lived longer. First, perhaps they are healthy to begin with. Secondly, their life standard and habit may result in their health.
3. The feasibility to recommend to do vigorous outdoor exercise. we should consider the condition of patients.

178.The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.

"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."

为节省开支，我们National Brush公司决定不再按员工生产刷子的工时支付工资，而是按他们生产刷子的数量来支付。我们相信这一政策将会导致刷子产量和质量的提高，将会减少我们的员工数量，并将会使工厂能够减少运营时间从而导致电费和保安费用的节省。这些改革将保证那些最好的工人留在这里工作，公司将会在来年有更多的盈利。

1. the feasibility to pay employee for each brush instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. One brush may not be produced only by one employee, if the process is in a stream-line, this way would not be feasible.
2. False causal relationship
This policy would lead to produce more brushes, but the quality would be limited since employees would put emphasis on the quantity of brushes rather than quality. Thereby it would result in my complains from customers.
3. This policy might not save costs, especially security costs, since employees would accelerate their speed to produce brushes, and accidents would happen more frequently.
4. These changes would ensure that fastest workers keep their jobs rather than best workers keep their jobs.

202.Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.

大约7000年前人类到达了Kaliko岛，在3000年内曾经生活在Kaliko岛的树林中的大型哺乳动物绝大多数已经灭绝了。然而人类并不是导致这些物种灭绝的因素，因为没有证据表明人类与这些哺乳动物有很多接触。而且，考古学家发现一些有大量鱼骨被抛弃的场所，而他们并没有发现存在大型哺乳动物骨头的类似场所，因而人类并没有猎杀这些哺乳动物。因此，一定是一些气候上的变化或其他环境因素导致了这些物种的灭绝。

1. The fact that there is not evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals may not dicate that humans cannot have been a factor in the species’ extinctions. Such as destroy food chain, pollution.
2. The evidence that archaeologists have not found the bones of large mammals which were discarded by human might not imply that the human cannot have hunted the mammals. First, since it has been so long that it’s hard to find this bones. Secondly, perhaps these bones were rather valuable and expensive, people would not discard them. Such telephone teeth.
3. Other factors may result in the extinctions of these mammals rather than climate change and other environment, like other larger mammals lived on them or some diseased killed them.

160.As people grow older, an enzyme known as PEP increasingly breaks down the neuropeptide chemicals involved in learning and memory. But now, researchers have found compounds that prevent PEP from breaking neuropeptides apart. In tests, these compounds almost completely restored lost memory in rats. The use of these compounds should be extended to students who have poor memory and difficulty in concentrating-and therefore serious problems in school performance. Science finally has a solution for problems neither parents nor teachers could solve.

随着人们的衰老，一种已知叫做PEP的酶不断地分解与学习和记忆有关的神经化学物质。但现在研究人员已经发现了一些阻止PEP分解神经化学键的化合物。在试验中，这些化合物几乎完全恢复了老鼠失去的记忆。这些化合物的使用可以扩展到那些记忆力较差和因注意力不能集中而在学习中存在严重问题的学生。科学最终能够解决家长和教师都无法解决的问题。

1. false comparison
First of all, other factors may result in the restored memory in rats rather than this PEP, secondly, the tests which works in rats may not suit for human.
2. Since as people grow older, this enzyme called PEP would break down chemicals, students do not exist the problem to get older, so it may not be fit for students.
3. Other factors would result in students’ poor memory and difficulty in concentrating, such as lazy.
4. advantages and disadvantages
Side effect or by-product?

166.The following appeared in a local newspaper.

"People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective."

人们不应该被任何人不用医生处方就可以买到的OTC药品Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导。每个牌子都指责另一种药会导致某种众所周知的不良副作用：Coldex导致血压升高而Cold-Away导致嗜睡。但对于多数关心健康的人来说选择是明显的：Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长而且被更多的医院所使用。显然，Cold-Away效果更好。
1.No evidence to show CA is better than Coldex.　The fact that CA has been on the market for much longer may not indicate that it’s more effective.
2.Maybe new product is more advanced in some special illnesses, although it can cause high blood pressure.
3.That CA has used in more hospitals may lie in other factors, such as cheap price.

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率
192        18
228        18
11          19
76          19
133        19
192.The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.

"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."

尽管West Roseville的一些居持反对意见，支持合并Roseville和West Roseville的呼声还是占了上风。首先，两地区的居经常搞不清在需要服务的时候应该和哪个政府联系；举例来说，Roseville的警署接到过很多West Roseville居的电话。这种混乱可以通过合并来消除。其次，管理开支将会得到很大节省，因为服务不再重复：我们将只有一个消防局，一个税务局，一个市长，以及其他等等。市政府的工作岗位并不会减少，雇员可以被重新委任。最重要的是，合并无疑会吸引更多的商务投资，就像Hamden和North Hamden在十年前合并时所发生的那样。

1. The fact that residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact may not indicate that the two townships need to merge. It would bring about more problems, such as the efficiency
2. the savings in administrative costs may not be enormous, although there would be only one fire chief, one tax department, the agency would be rather large and their efficiency also would be quite low. And it conflicts with the saying that no jobs in city government would be lost.
3. Are the two townships comparative in size, habit and location? Maybe other factors had led to business investments when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden ten years ago.

228.The following appeared in a newsletter from a political organization.

"In order to promote economic growth in the city, city residents should vote 'yes' on the state government's proposal to build a new expressway linking the outlying suburbs directly to the city center. A direct link to the city center will enable downtown businesses to receive deliveries more frequently, so that downtown retailers will no longer run out of stock and city manufacturers will not be affected by shortages of materials. Booming businesses will attract qualified workers from all over the state, workers who will be able to take advantage of the new expressway to commute to work in our city. In addition to these advantages, hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, further stimulating the local economy!"

为促进本市的经济增长，市应该对州政府关于建造直接连接郊区和市中心的新高速路的提案投赞潮。到市中心的直接连接将使中心商业区的货运更加频繁，从而中心区的零售商就不会再断货，市内的生产商也不会受到材料短缺的影响。繁荣的商业将会从整个州吸引合格的工人，工人可以利用新的高速路在本市上班。除了这些好处，上百的工人将被雇佣修筑这条道路，进一步促进地方经济。

1. No evidence to prove that it’s necessary to build a new expressway. Perhaps other reasons contribute to the shortage of stock.
2. False assumption
Building the new expressway does not indicate booming economy ant that workers would like to commute to work.
3. Advantages and disadvantages.
Although hundreds of workers will be employed to build the expressway, first, it’s not long-term job for workers and not stable. Second, it would occupy large areas of earth and the costs would be rather considerable, even many citizens’ houses would be pull down.

11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.

"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."

两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全充满。然而在过去两年间，市对于铝和纸张的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的收费在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90％的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。

1. No evidence to indicate that the total amount of garbage would decrease in the future. First, population in that area may increase a great number and litter also would increase that would offset the twice recycling. Second, although there have been recycling twice as much as aluminum and paper, the main element may not aluminum and paper, aluminum and paper might only be a small part of garbage.
2. different concepts.
That charges will double cannot mean that the amount of material recycled should further increase. First, the material that can be recycled is limited.
Second, it would diminish the number of people who recycled garbage .
3. selective sample. Are the respondents representative of the general population?

1.没有说明，人口等其他因素是否会导致垃圾数量的增多，可能offset the decease of垃圾，由于循环和回收的增多导致的
2.没有说明会因为垃圾收集费用的提高导致循环数量的增加，更愿意花钱
3.其他因素：调查的详细信息没有说明，比一定所有的人都会那样做；其外，没有证据说明垃圾总量的信息，可能现在的总数比过去多很多，而循环在回收的数量翻倍不能说明总量的情况

76.The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.

"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."

一组志愿者参加了一项关于消费者对新的Luxess面霜的反应的调查。在一个孕的每个早晨，他们都用柔和香皂洗脸然后使用Luxess。一个援后，多数志愿者报告说他们皮肤的观感显著改。因此，这说明Luxess对于改面部皮肤状况确实有效。

1. selective sample, perhaps the condition of facial skin of the group of volunteers is good to begin with. They may not representative of the overall consumers.
2. Other factors contribute to the improvement of their facial skin rather than face cream. Such as the mild soap or other face cream. Or climate.
3. The result is not credible since only through their feel. The arguer should provide us with detailed data to justify his conclusion. Further, one month is not a so long time to test whether Luxess is truly effective or not.

133.The following is a memo from the principal of Academia High School.

"Academia High School should abolish its after-school performing-arts programs and replace them with computer-technology programs. When nearby Techno High School did so last year, total enrollment in all of its after-school activities remained about the same. Moreover, on entering college, many Techno students chose a major directly related to their after-school activities. On the other hand, last year only 10 percent of Academia's graduating seniors chose performing arts as their major field of study in their first year of college, clearly indicating that most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts."

Academia高中应该废止其课外表演艺术课程而应该以计算机科技课程取而代之。当附近的Techno高中去年采取了这种变化之后，其所有课外活动的参加数量基本没变。而且，很多Techno的学生在走进大学的时候选择了与他们所参加的课外活动直接相关的专业。另一方面，去年Academia的毕业生中只有10％的人选择表演艺术作为他们大学第一年的专业，这显然表明多数学生对于表演艺术并没有很强烈的兴趣。

1.The arguer provide no evidence that students in Academia High School should abolish its after-school performing. Maybe they perfer after-school performing.
2.Are the two high school comparative in size, subjects and teaching level?
Perhaps Academia High School do well in performing and Techno High School is good at computer.
3.false assumption
On entering college, most students choose their majors according to job market information instead of their interests.
4.vague data
Since there are much less jobs in the major of arts than computer, common sense tell us that the percentage of 10 of which Academia’s graduating seniors chose performing arts as their majors is rather high and thereby indicate that they have a strong interest in the performing arts.

渡渡鸟UID: 145880

3X for sharing~~

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率
203        20
217        20
234        20
4            21
39          21

203.The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.

"At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals."

在Saluda镇的小型非盈利医院，患者平均逗留时间是两天；在邻近的Megaville市的大型盈利医院，患者平均逗留时间为6天。而且，Saluda医院患者的治愈率大约是Megaville医院的两倍。Saluda平均每个患者对应的医务人员的数量比Megaville医院多，而且地方医院关于服务的投诉也较少。这些数据表明小型非盈利医院的治疗比大型盈利医院更加经济，质量更高。

1. the average length of a patient may not show the cure quality
2. The cure rate among patients cannot indicate the cure quality. Other factors may results in a lower cure rate. Such as serious disease for Megaville hospital.
3. More employees and few complaints about service also cannot imply a better cure in Saluda, for example, in Saluda, one nurse can attend one patient, but Megaville, one nurse would look after several patients.

217.The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.

"Now is the time to invest in a franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."

现在是投资于Power-Lift Gym特许权的良好时机从而你可以在你们城市开设一家体育馆。考虑一下当前的潮流：Power-Lift Gym已经在500个地点的消费者中相当流行，全国调查表明对于减肥和健身的关注越来越多。而且，去年关于个人健康的书籍和杂志销售总额超过了5千万元，家庭健身器具的购买量几乎翻了一番。现在投资Power-Lift Gym特许权将保证快速致富。

1. The arguer provide no evidence to show whether the 500 locations get a profit or not and if necessary to open another one since there have been so many.
2. The credibility of the survey, representative?
3. Even representative, this result may not fit for the local condition.
4. The sales of book and home exercise equipment only indicate that people have been pay more attention on health rather than other things, and local would choose other means to do exercise instead to go gym. The fact that purchases of home exercise equipment have been doubled exactly proves this.

234.The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.

"There is now evidence that the relaxed manner of living in small towns promotes better health and greater longevity than does the hectic pace of life in big cities. Businesses in the small town of Leeville report fewer days of sick leave taken by individual workers than do businesses in the nearby large city of Mason City. Furthermore, Leeville has only one physician for its one thousand residents, but in Mason City the proportion of physicians to residents is five times as high. And the average age of Leeville residents is significantly higher than that of Mason City residents. These findings suggest that people seeking longer and healthier lives should consider moving to small communities."

现有证据表明，在小城市的悠闲生活方式比在大城市快节奏的生活更有利于健康和长寿。小城镇Leeville的商业行业所上报的员工病假天数比邻近大城市Mason要少。而且，Leeville每千人只有一名医生，而Mason市医生的比例是Leeville的五倍。Leeville居的平均年龄显著高于Mason居。这些数据表明寻求更健康更长寿生活的人应该考虑移居到小型社区。

1. Different concepts
Fewer sick leave would not equate better health. Other factors may lead to this result. Such goldbrick in big cities, more strict regulations to sick leave.
2. The fact that higher proportion of physicians to residents cannot indicate that Mason city residents have better health. Perhaps a great number of illnesses need to be cured in Mason. Or the number of physicians is insufficient and even scant for Leeville.
3. Only the statistical data from leeville and Mason cannot reach a sound conclusion since they may be not representative. Or other factors may result in a higher average age in Leeville.

4.The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.

"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town-Adams Realty and Fitch Realty-Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

在本市的两家最大的房地产经纪公司--Adams Realty和Fitch Realty--之中，Adams显然更优秀一些。Adams有40名房地产经纪人，而Fitch只有25个，且很多是兼职工作。而且，Adams去年的收入是Fitch的两倍，其平均房价为$168000，而Fitch仅为$144000。在Adams销售的房屋卖得也更快：十年前，我把我的房产交给Fitch，它用了四个多月才卖出去；去年，我在Adams卖了另一处房产，仅用一个月就售出了。因此，要想让你的房产卖的更快更好，你应该选择Adams。

1.Are the two firms comparative?
2.More real estate agents may not indicate superior firms. Sucs working efficiency, salary and allowance and so forth.
3.Revenue also might not show Adam is superior, perhaps there are much more employees than Fitch, then the average profits would be smaller than Fitch.Futhermore, average home sales cannot provide valuable evidence to prove Adams’ superiority.
4. False comparison between the past and today.

39.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.

"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."

去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。

1. Are the two universities comparative?
2. Other factors may contribute to the increase expenditures of dormitory and classroom.
3. The advantage and disadvantage.
The cost to initiate and promote long-distance programs may offset the savings of expenditures for dormitory and classroom.

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率  
129        21
151        21
238        21
9           22
167        22

129.The following appeared in the Sherwood Times newspaper.

"A recent study reported that pet owners have longer, healthier lives on average than do people who own no pets. Specifically, dog owners tend to have a lower incidence of heart disease. In light of these findings, Sherwood Hospital should form a partnership with Sherwood Animal Shelter to institute an 'adopt-a-dog' program. The program would encourage dog ownership for patients recovering from heart disease, which will help reduce medical costs by reducing the number of these patients needing ongoing treatment. In addition, the publicity about the program will encourage more people to adopt pets from the shelter, which will reduce the risk of heart disease in the general population."

一项最近的研究报告说养宠物的人平均而言比不养宠物的人活得更长更健康。特别是，养狗的人心脏病发病率更低。根据这些发现，Sherwood医院应该和Sherwood动物收养所合作建立一个"收养狗"的计划。这一计划将会鼓励正在治疗心脏病的患者养狗，这将通过减少这些患者接受治疗的次数而减少医疗费用。而且，对于这一计划的宣传将鼓励更多的人从收养所领养宠物，这将减少整体人群患心脏病的危险。

1. The credibility of the recent study from age, career, sex and so forth.
2. The feasibility to breed dog. It needs costs and energy to attend them. It may result in side-effect.
3. Different concepts.
The arguer provide no evidence that dog ownership can help save costs of treatment.
4. False assumption
The program would reduce the risk of heart disease in the general population on the basis of that many people will feed dog. But this may be not the case for various reasons.
151.The following is a letter to the editor of the Atticus City newspaper.

"Former Mayor Durant owes an apology to the city of Atticus. Both the damage to the River Bridge, which connects Atticus to Hartley, and the traffic problems we have long experienced on the bridge were actually caused 20 years ago by Durant. After all, he is the one who approved the construction of the bridge. If he had approved a wider and better-designed bridge, on which approximately the same amount of public money would have been spent, none of the damage or problems would have occurred. Instead, the River Bridge has deteriorated far more rapidly over the past 20 years than has the much longer Derby Bridge up the river. Even though the winters have been severe in the past several years, this is no excuse for the negligence and wastefulness of Durant."

前任市长Durant应该向Atticus市道歉。连接着Atticus和Hartley两座城市的River Bridge的损害和长期困扰着我们的桥上的交通问题实际上都是20年前因Durant而导致的。无论如何，是他批准了桥梁的建造。如果他能够批准一个差不多花同样的钱的设计更好的方案的话，桥梁的损坏和交通问题都不会出现。但现在，River Bridge在过去20年间的损坏程度比上游另外一座更长的Derby Bridge更加严重。尽管近几年的冬天气候确实比较恶劣，但这也不是为Durant的过失和浪费开脱的借口

1. False assumption
Perhaps the design of the bridge was the best 20 years ago. We should not expect compare today with the past with the same standard.
2. false comparison between River Bridge and Derby Bridge. Perhaps it is because of lacking of maintenance that results in the damage of the bridge, other factors.
3. The advantage and disadvantage of the River Bridge.
We should consider the benefits that the bridge has brought us.

238.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.

"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumes and interviewing skills."

邻近的Green Mountain学院拥有比Mira Vista学院更多的商业课程和就业顾问，去年其毕业生有90％得到了公司的工作机会。但去年在Mira Vista，所有通知了就业办公室说他们要就业的毕业生中只有70％的人在毕业后三个月内找到全职工作，而且这些毕业生只有一半在本专业就业。为帮助Mira Vista的毕业生找到工作，我们必须提供更多的商业和计算机技术课程，并雇佣更多的就业顾问来帮助学生提高准备简历和面试的技巧。

1. Are the two colleges comparative from size, major or level?
2. false assumption
The fact that only 70% percent students who informed the placement office had found job cannot indicate that MV has a lower rate of finding jobs.
3. The feasibility to offer computer courses.
4. the completeness of the resolution
We may need improve other respect to help students rather than hire additional job counselors.

9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.

"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."

15年前，Omega大学实施了一项新措施，鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行评价。从那以后，Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数，Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30％。未来的雇主显然认为Omega的分数贬值了；这可以解释为什么Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成。为使Omega毕业生找到好工作，我们应立即停止学生对教授的评价。

1.After this, therefore because of this.
The dean provides no evidence that it is because of the evaluation that results in that professors assigned higher grades in their classes, perhaps the professors were strict with them so that they got high scores.  
2.The credibility of the study result from some potential employers.
The opinion from potential employers lacks of proof to indicate the credibility result.
3.incomplete thought
There may be some other reasons to explain the unsuccess at getting jobs, such as major, skill etc.
4.False comparison between Omega University and alpha University.
Are the two university comparable from the reputation, alumni and scale.
5.The advantages and disadvantages to terminate student evaluation of professors.
The disadvantages may be more than advantages, for example, professors would not have a right attitude to their duty that can make the grades worse than before.

167.A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia. A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.

一种治疗失眠的偏方--薰衣草花香，现在被证明是有效的。在一次最近的调查中，30名患有慢性失眠的志愿者在三周之内每晚都在一个受监视的控制室内睡在带薰衣草花香的枕头上。在第一周，志愿者继续服用他们常用的安眠药。他们睡得很沉但醒来时很累。在第二周，他们不服用药物。结果与前一周相比他们睡得不那么沉并且感觉更累。在第三周，他们睡得比前两周时间长而且更深。这表明薰衣草在短时间内治愈了失眠。
*偏方通常是一种在传统医药中常见的植物治疗形式，这些传统医药是在现代医药服务和科技出现之前发展起来的。

1. selective sample, representative?
2. no comparison to show the effect of the folk remedy of lavender and lack of result of the third week.
3. other factors contribute to the result of the study. Such as environment.

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率
230        22
235        22
242        22
36          23
111        23

230.The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.

"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."

十年前，作为一项综合城市改造项目的一部分，Transopolis市为了工业用途在快速路旁边改造了一大片严重低于标准的住房。随后，那里建立了若干工厂，犯罪率降低了，全市资产税收入增加。为进一步使城市重新繁荣，我们应该在城市另一侧的正在衰落的居住区采取类似的行动。由于现有邻近社区的一些住宅和公寓无人居住，这一行动产生的搬迁户的住所将有所保障。
1. Other factors may contribute to the fact that crime rate in that site declined and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. For example, other factories may be built.
2. vague data, the arguer does not provide the exact number that how many houses and apartments are unoccupied.
3. Are the two areas comparative?
4. We should not infer the future from the past without enough evidences.

235.The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station.

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

若干因素表明KNOW电台应该把它的节目从摇滚乐转成连续的新闻节目。举例来说，我们覆盖范围内的老年人数量显著增加，而总的听众数量最近减少了。而且，我们地区音像店中录制音乐的销量下降。最后，邻近城市的连续新闻节目非常成，最近大选前组织的一次调查显示，本地居对于及时的政治报导很感兴趣。
1. False assumption
Other factors may result in that the total number of listeners has declined.
2. The decreased sales of recorded music bear no relationship with the programs.
3. Are the two cities comparative?
4. different concepts. The fact that citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics cannot equate to that people would like to shift rock-and-roll music to a continuous news formats. Other solutions.

242.The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton College.

"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."

为解决最近上报的大学生作弊现象显著增加的问题，大学和学院应该采取和Groveton学院类似的诚信制度，该制度要求学生同意在学业中不作弊，并且当他们怀疑别人作弊的时候通知老师。Groveton的诚信制度代替了原有的学生被老师严密监视的老体制，在老体制中平均每年有30起作弊被上报。该制度被证明成的多：在它实施的第一年，学生上报了21起作弊；五年后，这一数值下降到了14起。而且，在最近一次由Groveton诚信委员会组织的调查中，大部分学生说有了诚信制度他们更加不太可能作弊。
1.the feasibility of the solution
2.different concepts.
The fact that only fourteen students were reported cheating may not indicate that just fourteen students cheated.
3.The credibility of the survey.
Selective sample,are the respondents forthright?

36.The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.

"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."

20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并从他的观察得出结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养长大的而不是由他们的双亲。然而，我最近对包含Tertia的一组岛屿上生活的儿童的采访显示，这些儿童的谈话中谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。这个研究证实了Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的，因而这种以观察为中心的研究文化的方法是无效的。由于我在Tertia工作的研究生们所用的是以采访为中心的方式，他们将对那里以及其他岛屿文化的儿童抚养传统建立精确的多的了解。
1.selective sample with respect to the group of children.
2.false assumption. Talking much about their biological parents might not equate to that they are reared by the entire viliage.
3.the feasibility to adopt the new method.

111.The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.

"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process."

最近一次对于Dura-Sock使用者的调查表明我们公司用于其专利生产方式"Endure"上的钱是浪费的，这种方式使我们生产的袜子足以使用两年。Dura-Sock一直在做广告宣传它使用"Endure"方式，但这次新调查显示一般Dura-Sock的消费者每三个月就买一双Dura-Sock袜子。而且，在位于美国北部城市我们最大的商场回应调查的Dura-Sock消费者说他们最欣赏Dura-Sock时尚的外观和众多颜色的选择。这些事实说明Dura-Sock可以通过停止使用"Endure"生产方式来增加盈利。
1.the arguer provides no evidence to show that people don’t pursue the nature of ‘endure’
2. different concepts.
The fact that people purchase new sock every three month cannot indicate that people want to wear sock only for three month.
3. selective sample.
4. Disadvantages to give up its use fo ‘Endure’

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率
168        23
239        23
25          24
46          24
159        24

168.Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.

通常当人们衰老的时候，他们的骨质减少，使他们容易骨折。最近一项研究认为在老年减少骨折危险的最好办法就是每天服用双倍于推荐用量的维生素D和钙。这项为期三年的研究跟踪了一组在养老院生活的80多岁的法国妇女。她们每天被给予两倍于推荐用量的维生素D和钙。而且，这些妇女参加了轻微的举重活动。三年之后，这些妇女髋关节骨折的发生率低于同龄人的平均水平。

1. Are the old women representative? Selective sample
2. Other factors result in the low rate of hip fractures.
3. Only the low rate of hip fractures in incomplete.
4. the arguer provides no evidence that prove the credibility of the study of the recommendation.

239.The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.

"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."

4个月前当邻近城市Williamsville实行了宵禁，规定18岁以下人员在晚上10点以后在公共场所闲逛和逗留被视为非法的时候，Williamsville在宵禁时间内的青少年犯罪下降了27％。在Williamsville的市镇广场，一个曾经因发生在这里的高犯罪率而导致市反感的地方，在宵禁实施以来没有一起犯罪被上报。因此，为降低日益增长的犯罪率，Dalton市也应该实行同样的宵禁。把青少年留在家中的宵禁肯定能控制青少年犯罪并保护未成年人不成为犯罪的牺牲品。
1. Other factors contribute to the decreased rate of crime.
2. The fact that not a single crime has been reported in the square does not indicate that there is no crime.
3. Are the two towns comparative?

25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.

"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."

两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。

1. other factors may contribute to the tourism, new business and tax revenues in Ocean View.
The result of increased tourism, new business and tax revenues in Ocean View may lie in other reason rather than the building of the new municipal golf course and resort hotel, such as a new open policy.
2.are the two towns comparable?
Maybe the two towns located in two utterly different places, one is far from ocean, and the other located seaside. Or perhaps the tax revenues in Ocean View depend on tourism, but Hopewell does not.
3.feasibility to build a golf course and resort hotel in Hopewell
since the customers has bee attracted by Ocean View, it would confront fierce competition to build a golf course and resort hotel in Hopewell. In order to improve the economy in Hopewell, there may be some other resolutions such as building industry and improving investment environment to attract investors.


46.Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.

尽管黑熊在加拿大东部的Labrador省份很常见，那种与黑熊颜色类似，但要大的多的灰熊被认为只存在于西部的省份。尽管存在一名19世纪的探险者在Labrador丛林深处遭遇一头灰熊并惊险地逃脱的记载，现代学者并没有发现灰熊曾在Labrador生活的证据。但最近对于已在Labrador生活了数千年的Innu人的语言和传说的研究发现，他们的语言中对于两种不同的熊有不同的词汇，他们的古老传说中确认了两种熊的特征。因此，Labrador可能曾有过灰熊，探险者的记载有可能精确地记叙了熊的存在。
1. The credibility of the explorer’s account. He may be under other circumstances.
2. false assumption. Only the fact that the language has words for two different kinds of bears may not infer that there probably were grizzly in Labrador.
First, no evidence to prove that one of the two different kinds of bears is grizzly bear.
Second, no evidence to identify that one of the two characteristics belongs to grizzly bear.
Third, maybe thousands of years ago, there may be grizzly bear, but after that, this kind of bear may disappeared.


159.The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.

Claria这个国家覆盖了广泛的地理区域。但尽管存在很大地理差异，很多居都遇到了电费上涨的经历。最近一项对于Claria家庭用电花费的研究发现，那些单独使用风扇来降温的家庭电费花费比那些单独使用空调降温的家庭要多。然而，那些报告说同时使用风扇和空调的家庭电费花费比单独使用风扇或空调的家庭少。因此，Claria的居应该遵从这个研究的建议，同时使用空调和风扇来节省电费花费。
1.The credibility of the survey, selective sample
2.Other home appliances result in the increased costs of electricity. Different temperature.
3.the fee for per degree of electricity may different.
4.The feasibility to follow the study’s recommendation.

joey.liuUID: 2207101

题号        频率
34          25
99          25
165        25
205        26
57          27

34.Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.

牛奶和奶制品富含维生素D和钙，这是骨骼生长和维持所必须的物质。因此很多人相信多吃奶制品的饮食可以帮助预防骨质疏松症，这是一种骨骼随年龄而显著弱化而且与环境和基因因素相关联的疾病。但是一项对大量人群的长期研究发现那些在研究期间经常食用奶制品的人骨折发病率比其他参加研究的人要高。由于骨折是骨质疏松症的症状之一，这一研究结果表明富含奶制品的饮食实际上会增加而不是减少患骨质疏松症的危险。

1. selective sample and vague data
2. other factors may contribute to the higher rate of bone fractures. Such as accidents.
3. Other reasons may result in the disease osteoporosis rather than dairy products. Such as environmental and genetic factors, age and eating some other food.

99.The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."

通过使用一种新研制的种子，我们临近国家Abundia的农在去年生产了比以往多80％的大米。为增加我们国家农的收入，我们应该鼓励他们培育这种新的大米品种，而不是那些他们的传统谷类作物。这种大米的高产量也将会使我国通过出口大米促进贸易平衡。

1.Are the two countries comparative?
2.Other factors may result in the farmers in neighboring country producing more crops.
3. No evidence to show that the total amount of crops in neighboring country producd more crop than Paucia.
4. Haste generalization
First, cost problem; second, no evidence to prove that the import would improve the country’s balance of trade.
165.The following appeared in a business magazine.

"As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods."

去年由于有大量消费者投诉说产生了眩晕和恶心，Promofoods要求800万罐金枪鱼回收检测。Promofoods下结论说这些罐头根本不含任何有健康危害的化学物质。这一结论基于这样的事实，即Promofoods的化学家测试了回收的罐头样本，并发现8种最常见的导致眩晕和恶心症状的化学物质中，有五种都没有在任何被测试的罐头中被发现。化学家确实发现剩下三种受怀疑的化学物质在所有其他罐头食品中都存在。

1. selective sample
2. The fact that five were not found in any of the tested cans may not indicate that other cans do not exist these chemicals.
3. The arguer provides no evidence to confirm whether other three chemicals exist in the cans or not.
4. Even if there are no these eight chemicals in the cans, other chemicals which have not been detected in the cans may result in the dizziness and nausea.

205.The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.

"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."

去年10月Belleville市在其中央商业区安装了高照度灯光，那里的破坏公物的行为几乎立即减少。Amburg市最近开始在其中央商业区安排警察骑自行车巡逻，但破坏公物的发生率并没有变化。由于高照度灯光显然是震慑犯罪的最有效途径，我们也应该在Amburg全市安装这种灯光。通过以这种方式减少犯罪，我们可以使本市重新繁荣起来。

1. Are the two cities comparative?
2. Other factors may lead to the declined rate of vandalism in Belleville.
3. the cost and effect to install high intensity lighting.
4. haste generalization to revitalize the declining neighborhoods. It needs other most important measures.

97.The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.

"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."

一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。

1. selective sample, representative?
2. Other factors may contribute to the doubled share of television audience.
3. different concepts. To gain a larger audience share does not equate to increase company profits. Costs may offset the profits.

57.The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."

尽管含多种矿物质的Zorba药片被设计成用作单纯的营养补充药，对于使用了Zorba的溃疡初患者的研究发现Zorba可以帮助预防溃疡。研究表明在医生的指导下服用Zorba的患者中只有25%得了新的溃疡，相比之下，那些没有服用Zorba的溃疡患者的复发率为75％。显然，Zorba在预防溃疡复发方面有很积极的效果，如果健康专家把这一事实公诸于众，很多初次发生的溃疡也同样可以得到预防。

1.selective sample
2. other factors may result in the effect.
3. false comparsion, only 25 percent developed new ulcers bears no relationship with that 75 percent recurrence.
4. no evidence to prove its effect to first-time ulcers.