argument147 {长征队作业}第一次写arg，GF们拍的时候别客气哈

smailingfishUID: 2246243

147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

  "Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
前提：10-25岁的很可能玩，但没有给出根据
         有那些特点的游戏不一定就好卖，还要考虑价格 内容等
论据：产品是面向10-25岁的，但调查却未说明是针对哪个年龄段的
         可能同时又另外的公司或者市场不景气也可能卖不出去

In this argument, the arguer predicts that, in the next few months the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically to substantiate the conclusion, the arguer sets the result of the survey of video-players that what they think highly of in a video games. And according to their answers, it is the life-like graphics of a game which requires the most up-to-date computer that attracts them most. At the same time, based on the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games and an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the statement draws the conclusion which is well-presented but not thoroughly well-reasoned.

The arguer gives a groundless assumption that the age-group from 10 to 25 years old are most likely to play video games. However, without a survey or figures to illustrate the assumption it lacks reliability. Even if they are most likely to play, they may not necessarily to play at all. In addition, lifelike graphics of the game introduced by Whirlwind is not a guarantee of the increase of sales. Although game players feature lifelike graphics most, they may still concern other factors such as the interestedness and excitement of the game. A boring game will in no case attracts a game player.

There is no specific information about who were conducted by the surveyor?  Are they young players aged between 10 to 25 years old? If not, then the advertisement directing at this group of people will become less effective and perhaps totally meaningless. There is a good chance that maybe the survey is an invalid one, and a conclusion based on an ineffective survey is very likely to be unreasonable. Furthermore, the arguer doesn't point out whether Whirlwind is the only game company in the local market. It is very possible, according to the principles of market economy, that Whirlwind could find its competitors in the game market. If the opponent happens to be a more powerful one who also introduced that kind of video games, it's doubtful whether Whirlwind could increase the sales. Even if there is no competitor, Whirlwind may not definitely increase its sales. What about the economy? A bad economy cannot promise good selling.
   
To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more information concerning the reliability of the survey to better evaluate the argument, and still, we need more concrete evidence that Whirlwind has a stronger competitiveness than other game companies and the market is quite good, otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.

[ 本帖最后由 smailingfish 于 2006-12-10 04:57 编辑 ]

上悬月UID: 2182439

In this argument, the arguer predicts that, in the next few months the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically to substantiate the conclusion, the arguer sets the result of the survey of video-players that what they think highly of in a video games. And according to their answers, it is the life-like graphics of a game which requires the most up-to-date computer that attracts them most. At the same time, based on the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games and an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the statement draws the conclusion which is well-presented but not thoroughly well-reasoned.(开头和偶一样很正规^^,严格遵守3步走原则，呵呵)

The arguer gives a groundless assumption that the age-group from 10 to 25 years old are most likely to play video games. However, without a survey or figures to illustrate the assumption it lacks reliability. Even if they are most likely to play, they may not necessarily to play at all.（我觉得此处应该加上适当的解释，开始我也想这么写，但想想，一个人说我喜欢玩这个游戏，但我为什么一定要玩呢？这样的说法有点奇怪，给上理由就更好了） In addition, lifelike graphics of the game introduced by Whirlwind is not a guarantee of the increase of sales. Although game players feature lifelike graphics most, they may still concern other factors such as the interestedness and excitement of the game. A boring game will in no case attracts a game player.（嗯，这点我没有想到，学习）

There is no specific information about who were conducted by the surveyor?  Are they young players aged between 10 to 25 years old? （这点我也没有在文中质疑，呵呵，学习）If not, then the advertisement directing at this group of people will become less effective and perhaps totally meaningless. There is a good chance that maybe the survey is an invalid one, and a conclusion based on an ineffective survey is very likely to be unreasonable. Furthermore, the arguer doesn't point out whether Whirlwind is the only game company in the local market. It is very possible, according to the principles of market economy, that Whirlwind could find its competitors in the game market. If the opponent happens to be a more powerful one who also introduced that kind of video games, it's doubtful whether Whirlwind could increase the sales. Even if there is no competitor, Whirlwind may not definitely increase its sales. What about the economy? A bad economy cannot promise good selling.（嗯，偶也想到了竞争者的问题，这写的不错，但我觉得应该在写的具体点稍微展开分析一下，比如在价格问题上）
   
To sum up, the conclusion reached in the argument lacks credibility since the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer claims. To make the argument more convincing, the arguer should provide more information concerning the reliability of the survey to better evaluate the argument, and still, we need more concrete evidence that Whirlwind has a stronger competitiveness than other game companies and the market is quite good, otherwise the argument is logically unacceptable.（嗯，最后总结的也值得我学习，呵呵）
改你的文章是在我刚刚写完我的147之后，写完就改很有感触，我觉的你写的结构是不错的，但在逻辑的论述中，我觉得还有一些问题应该稍微展开论述一下，而不应该，一笔带过，呵呵，总的说来不错的。。呵呵。。互相学习。。加油！！）

上悬月UID: 2182439

这是偶147的链接，有时间也帮我改改吧！呵呵
http://bbs.gter.ce.cn/bbs/viewth ... e%3D1#pid1769488244