Argument117 【0710G-小猪快跑小组】第1次作业 By Shalon

shalonbasUID: 2184474

TOPIC: ARGUMENT 117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 479          TIME: 50 min          DATE: 2007-7-17

The author of this memo concludes that the office-supply departments will rank number one in terms of profits in the store, if the stock of home office machines and other supplies is increased. His conclusion is based on the survey indicating that an increasing number of people are liable to work at home. In my opinion, this argument is logically unconvincing in three critical respects as follows.

First of all, the trend of working at home does not necessarily lead to a greater demand of office supplies because the author failed to tell what kind of work the people are going to do at home. For instance, the home office machines are useless if the people who want to continue working at home only need to read some reports. Also, though some of them might want to compile some data and write summary report after work, they can bring their laptops from work, which eliminates the demand of other facilities at all. Without clarifying the detail of the work need to be done, it is not safe to conclude that the demand of office supplies will be increased due to this trend.

Secondly, even if such office supplies are in great demand, it is not convincing that the profit will be enhanced by increasing the stock, for more stock does not mean more people will purchase them. There might be another store which has also noticed this trend and hence started to attract these consumers by decreasing the price with great discount, or with special coupons. And if that happens, it will be that store, instead of Valu-Mart, which will sell more and make larger profit. In addition, it is groundless to say that the office-supply department is going to be the most profitable before comparing with other departments. It might start to get hot when many families are willing to buy air conditioners, and thus the profit of household facilities increase dramatically.

Thirdly, the survey in this memo is also doubtful, which may not cover all kinds of people in different areas and age range, and thus provides false information that leads to this trend. For instance, the young people who have just started to work may want to perform well, and hence are willing to continue working at home, while the elder people who have already proved their abilities may want to spend time with their children after work.

In sum, in order to reach his conclusion, the author should provide a more extensive survey, which can tell us what kind of work those people are going to do at home. Moreover, apart from increasing the stocks, what actions of this store and its rivals will take in response to this trend need to be fully investigated. And a comparison with other departments should be made before he claims the office-supply department will be the most profitable.

--------------------------------------------------提纲------------------------------------------------
200. Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.

从牙医那里获得的统计数据表明在看牙医时男性昏厥的次数是女性的三倍。这一证据说明男性在接受牙科治疗时比女性更容易感到痛楚。因此，那些做广告来吸引患者的牙医应该定位于男性顾客，并同时强调他们的麻醉技术和他们的职员对于紧张和痛苦患者的敏感度。

结构：
给数据à男性昏厥次数多à男性更易感到痛楚à广告定位：1）男性；2）强调麻醉及对痛苦患者的关心

错误：
1．  数据本身有问题，忽略了来源（牙医？！）和样本数，年龄，体质等，因此第一个推理（昏厥次数的性别依赖）不成立。
2．  即使男性昏厥次数多，也可能是因为男性患者所患的病本身就更为严重，因此第二个推理不成立。
3．  广告定位为男性并不一定就能带来更多的客源。因为也许女性患者相比更多，而对这一部分人的无视是捡了芝麻丢了西瓜。
4．  顾客不见得就是冲着麻醉而去的。


[ 本帖最后由 shalonbas 于 2007-7-17 20:41 编辑 ]

ldongxpUID: 2311083

不说什么了，argument就该这么写！
具体例证来反驳，很典型，很到位
倒数第二段稍显仓促，比较简单，没有小结。
over。

shalonbasUID: 2184474

嗯，你的两次批改意见都提到段中小结的问题了，确实很重要，我以后注意，谢谢啦~~

wu_jie07UID: 2146237

The author of this memoconcludes that the office-supply departments will rank number one interms of profits in the store, if the stock of home office machines andother supplies is increased. His conclusion is based on the surveyindicating that an increasing number为什么jojo也这么写，好像不太严谨，原文是说调查中的70%人说他们的回家工作增加，并没说人数增加，不知道这个有没有要紧哦 of people are liable to work athome. In my opinion, this argument is logically unconvincing in threecritical respects(aspects?) as follows.

First of all, the trend ofworking at home does not necessarily lead to a greater demand of officesupplies because the author failed to tell what kind of work the peopleare going to do at home. For instance, the home office machines areuseless if the people who want to continue working at home only need toread some reports. Also, though some of them might want to compile somedata and write summary report after work, they can bring their laptopsfrom work, which eliminates the demand of other facilities at all.Without clarifying the detail of the work need to be done, it is notsafe to conclude that the demand of office supplies will be increaseddue to this trend.写得不错

Secondly, even if suchoffice supplies are in great demand, it is not convincing that theprofit will be enhanced by increasing the stock, for more stock doesnot mean more people will purchase them. There might be another storewhich has also noticed this trend and hence started to attract theseconsumers by decreasing the price with great discount, or with specialcoupons. And if that happens, it will be that store, instead ofValu-Mart, which will sell more and make larger profit. In addition, itis groundless to say that the office-supply department is going to bethe most profitable before comparing with other departments. It mightstart to get hot when many families are willing to buy airconditioners, and thus the profit of household facilities increasedramatically.

Thirdly, the survey in thismemo is also doubtful, which may not cover all kinds of people indifferent areas and age range, and thus provides false information thatleads to this trend. For instance, the young people who have juststarted to work may want to perform well, and hence are willing tocontinue working at home, while the elder people who have alreadyproved their abilities may want to spend time with their children afterwork.其实很简单的论点，no procedures of random sampling，从总人数不明，地域差异可能影响调查的有效性入手是不是更有说服力？还有男女人数比例不明，也是致命错误，另外memo里说了一个关键错误就是要求 all stores 都增加库存，但是并没有表明所有地方的商店都需要提高库存。

In sum, in order to reachhis conclusion, the author should provide a more extensive survey,which can tell us what kind of work those people are going to do athome. Moreover, apart from increasing the stocks, what actions of thisstore and its rivals will take in response to this trend need to befully investigated. And a comparison with other departments should bemade before he claims the office-supply department will be the mostprofitable.

写得真好 我给起码就给5分了，互相学习，哇啦哇啦

shalonbasUID: 2184474

嗯，比例和人数不能等同，是个好问题，受教了，谢谢Ben啦：）