argument65 第一篇不计时只求思路完整，同期写作，请拍

JinneeUID：2354410

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 595          TIME: 不计时处女作         DATE: 2007-8-15 下午 08:35:36

提纲：

1. 差异范围的草率推广

    a.  newest store不等于全国

    b.  cheddar from W 州不等于 domestic cheeses

    c.  best-selling 不等于 best profits

2. survey

    a. 如果sample只代表少部份顾客，则此preference没有说服力，也有可能时imported的市场份额大

    b.  就算有倾向性也不一定会买

3. profit 排除了他因

    a. 呈上，如果上面survey 不成立，imported市场份额大，则应该继续销售imported cheeses

    b. 要具体地区情况具体分析

In this argument, the arguer concludes that discontinuing stocking many of varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits in all the stores in a chain located throughout the United States. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the five best-selling cheeses at a newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin last year. In addition, the arguer reasons that a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. This argument may mask other (and potentially more significant) approaches of improving profits and may lead to a wrong investment.

The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to convince us that domestic cheeses will be marketable in the whole country. First, the fact that cheddar cheeses become the five best-selling cheeses at a newest store does not necessarily indicate that they would be accepted by customers throughout the country. It is possible that such cheddar cheeses are produced in Wisconsin. Secondly, cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are not equal to domestic cheese. Thirdly, is best-selling equal to best profit? Certainly not. We do not know what percentage of the newest store’s profits do the five best-selling cheeses make up. Are they far superior to imported cheeses? Moreover, in some cases, certain products as best-sellers result from their lower price—that is, the greater the percentage of such cheeses, the weaker rate of profit the store gains. Maybe there is a promotion of cheddar cheeses which are the newest products last year, in order to attract customers. Therefore, the arguer hastily assumes that domestic cheeses will have a wide market throughout the country.

Another flaw that weakens the logic of the argument is that the result of the survey lacks of credibility because of the selective sample, and therefore could not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. The arguer fails to make clear the exact number of those subscribers or their percentage in the national customers, as well as the geographical distribution of these subscribers. If only a small portion of the whole customers have such preference while most customers do not have, then we have reason to doubt whether domestic cheeses are hitting choices. Furthermore, respondents who have rising preference do not mean they will go to buy domestic cheeses surely.

Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw in the argument. While we are informed that discontinuing stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to profits, the arguer fails to rule out other ways when it comes to improving profits. Granted that the preference of domestic cheeses is on the rise, we cannot ensure that investing domestic cheeses is a priority for the chain stores. If there are a substantial amount of customers of imported cheeses, the best way to make a profit is continue selling imported ones. In addition, no evidence could indicate that customers throughout the country have the same taste. If so, it is only because of investment determined on a case-by-case basis that profits can be on the rise continually.

In conclusion, it would be necessary for the arguer to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities before we could better evaluate the argument. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that domestic cheeses are marketable throughout the country. To better the argument, we would need more information about the preference of customers on a case-by-case basis.




[ 本帖最后由 Jinnee 于 2007-8-17 16:22 编辑 ]

accomplish2008UID：2330775

In this argument, the arguer concludes that discontinuing stocking many of varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to improve profits in all the stores in a chain located throughout the United States. To support the conclusion, the arguer points out that the five best-selling cheeses at a newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses form Wisconsin last year. In addition, the arguer reasons that a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. This argument may mask other (and potentially more significant) approaches of improving profits and may lead to a wrong investment.

The major problem with this argument is that the arguer fails to convince us that domestic cheeses will be marketable in the whole country. First, the fact that cheddar cheeses become the five best-selling cheeses at a newest store does not necessarily indicate that they would be accepted by customers throughout the country. It is possible that such cheddar cheeses are produced in Wisconsin. Secondly, cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are not equal to domestic cheese. Thirdly, is best-selling equal to best profit? Certainly not. We do not know what percentage of the newest store’s profits do the five best-selling cheeses make up. Are they far superior to imported cheeses? Moreover, in some cases, certain products as best-sellers result from their lower price—that is, the greater the percentage of such cheeses, the weaker rate of profit the store gains. Maybe there is a promotion of cheddar cheeses which are the newest products last year, in order to attract customers(这一小段似乎与wide market的结论句不很搭 ，best-selling 不等于 best profits这算是一个无关概念，属于草率推广的一种，但我觉得似乎内容上与上下文衔接不紧密。另外你后面也有写关profits的问题，似乎有点重了). Therefore, the arguer hastily assumes that domestic cheeses will have a wide market throughout the country.

Another flaw that weakens the logic of the argument is that the result of the survey lacks of credibility because of the selective sample, and therefore could not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. The arguer fails to make clear the exact number of those subscribers or their percentage in the national customers, as well as the geographical distribution of these subscribers. If only a small portion of the whole customers have such preference while most customers do not have, then we have reason to doubt whether domestic cheeses are hitting choices. Furthermore, respondents who have rising preference do not mean they will go to buy domestic cheeses surely.

Before I come to my conclusion, it is necessary to point out another flaw in the argument. While we are informed that discontinuing stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses is the best way to profits, the arguer fails to rule out other ways when it comes to improving profits. Granted that the preference of domestic cheeses is on the rise, we cannot ensure that investing domestic cheeses is a priority for the chain stores. If there are a substantial amount of customers of imported cheeses, the best way to make a profit is continue selling imported ones. In addition, no evidence could indicate that customers throughout the country have the same taste. If so, it is only because of investment determined on a case-by-case basis that profits can be on the rise continually.

In conclusion, it would be necessary for the arguer to rule out all the above-mentioned possibilities before we could better evaluate the argument. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to provide evidence that domestic cheeses are marketable throughout the country. To better the argument, we would need more information about the preference of customers on a case-by-case basis.

行文非常简洁，流畅，请问这是你最后的模版吗？或者是一类文章的模版？