argument17 [kb911]第三次作业 by No.11 phoenixlw

phoenixlwUID: 2382912

30分钟内又没写完...sigh

17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.

"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."


In this argument, the author asserts that the town council's policy is mistaken, and they should continue using EZ Disposal rather than ABC Waste. To support his/her argument, the author cites that EZ collects trash twice a week while ABC only once; besides, EZ has a fleet of 20 trucks at present and has already ordered more ones; additionally, a survey also shows that 80 percent of respondents were satisfied with EZ's performance. However, the argument suffers from a series of flaws, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the author establishes a mistaken correlation between the service quality and the service quantity. It is true that EZ's service quantity is twice a week, more than that of ABC's, but the higher quantity does not necessarily lead to a better service quality. Maybe it is enough for only once service in a week, if so, twice service in a week seems redundant. On the other hand, that ABC collects trash only once a week exactly reflects that its efficiency is higher than that of EZ, while EZ might suffer from a low efficiency instead. Thus, the author could not conclude that EZ is more advanced than ABC only by the collecting frequency.

Secondly, author also commits a fallacy of incomplete comparison by citing that EZ not only has a fleet of 20 trucks as many as ABC, but also it has ordered additional trucks. It is true that as the number of trucks is concerned, EZ might has more advantages than ABC, but still the author might ignore other aspects to weigh a trash-collected company. Besides the number of trucks, it is also significant that the location of the company and the system of personnel management and distribution. If EZ is too far away from the town, it would affect the quality of the service since the traffic jams and some unfavored weather condition, which can prevent the trash-collecting trucks from normal working, are unavoidable somehow. Besides, if EZ has a weak system of management and distribution, then even though its personnel or material resources are enormous, it can not work as whole and eventually is lack of efficiency. Additonally, it is still unkown when the trucks ordered can arrive, and even the truck order might not be substantiated yet. Therefore, the author cannot assert that EZ is preferred due to more trucks alone.

Last but not least, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. Firstly, the author fails to offer enough evidence that the respondents are representative of the entire habitants who receive EZ’s service. It is highly possible still myriads of people do not respond to the survey, among who there may be many people who feel unsatisfied on EZ’s service. Secondly, it is also possible that the survey was conducted in the very area near the center company of EZ, and therefore it receives a relatively advanced service in deed. However, the partial area service quality can not represent that of the whole area. Without ruling out these two or other scenarios, the author cannot conclude that EZ’s service is satisfied among people in the town based on the survey.

In sum, the argument which seems logical at first glance has several flaws above. To strength the argument, the author should prove the service quality of EZ is also advanced as well as its service quantity. Besides, I need to know more information on the location, management and other equipment of both EZ and ABC to make a complete comparison. Finally, the detailed information on the survey is necessary to make an objective evaluation on EZ.



提纲

A21

1.       Even though S and its major competitor no longer make an alpaca overcoat, it is highly possible that other companies might continue with the production of alpaca overcoat.
2.       Increase of price will not necessarily lead to that people are willing to pay higher prices for it .
a.       It is highly possible that people unwilling to purchase it because of the high price
b.       Since the price of most types of clothing has risen, then it is possible some types of clothing do not increase. So if just the type of clothing that used to make this overcoat remains the same price, then..  
3.       it cannot result in an increase in profit eventually.
a.       even though sales is good condition and lead to a considerable revenue, yet the author fails to offer any information on the cost of this overcoat.
b.       Market condition is also attributed to profit.

A119.
1.       It is highly possible the very road the author passes by is under construction, but the partial traffic condition cannot represent the whole W’s traffic condition.
2.       The policy in G that the author cites has little correlation with the traffic problems.
3.       Also, the efficient traffic in G might not be resulted from this policy.

A174  

1.       the validity of the survey is open to doubt.
a.       the author fails to offer the information on the size and constitution of the sample.
b.       It is highly possible that not all the students respond to the survey, and therefore maybe many students oppose to the policy.
2.       Although it seems fair to conduct another separate survey among the alumni, however, they have graduated and therefore can not represent the male undergraduates’ attitude.
3.       Even though over half of the alumni opposed coeducation, it not necessarily mean they appose all-female education. It is highly possible that they might prefer all-male education.
4 .  Even though the alumni prefer all-female education, yet the author fails to offer the sufficient evidence that they will keep supporting the college financially.

A216.
1.       although real estate taxes remain lower than neighboring towns, yet if the neighboring towns’ taxes are high, then the taxes are still high in C.
2.       The author cites that the mayor of C promises many new programs, but it is unknown that how long the promise will be realized.
3.       Even if the promise can be realized in near future, the new program of school has little correlation with retirees.
4.       Finally, the number of the physicians is not necessarily consistent with the health care.

A237
1.       the author commit a fallacy of inferring a future condition from a past condition, under the assumption of that the market conditions, national policies, and other factors contributing to economic development will not change.
2.       Unless offering the basic number of the whole employees and companies, the author cannot conclude that the economic condition and unemployment of D are improved significant.
3.       Even though the policies are practical and effective in D, the author still commits a fallacy of false analogy between D and B.

[ 本帖最后由 phoenixlw 于 2007-8-17 16:01 编辑 ]

prophetluoUID: 2240098

In this argument, the author asserts that the town council's policy is mistaken, and they should continue using EZ Disposal rather than ABC Waste. To support his/her argument, the author cites that EZ collects trash twice a week while ABC only once; besides, EZ has a fleet of 20 trucks at present and has already ordered more ones; additionally, a survey also shows that 80 percent of respondents were satisfied with EZ's performance. However, the argument suffers from a series of flaws, which render it wholly unpersuasive as it stands.

Firstly, the author establishes a mistaken correlation between the service quality and the service quantity. It is true that EZ's service quantity is twice a week, more than that of ABC's, but the higher quantity does not necessarily lead to a better service quality. Maybe it is enough for only once service in a week, if so, twice service in a week seems redundant. On the other hand, that （这里的that…不明白）ABC collects trash only once a week exactly reflects that its efficiency is higher than that of EZ, while EZ might suffer from a low efficiency instead. Thus, the author could not conclude that EZ is more advanced than ABC only by the collecting frequency.

Secondly, author also commits a fallacy of incomplete comparison by citing that EZ not only has a fleet of 20 trucks as many as ABC, but also it has ordered additional trucks. It is true that as the number of trucks is concerned, EZ might has more advantages than ABC, but still the author might ignore other aspects to weigh a trash-collected company. Besides the number of trucks, it is also significant that the location of the company and the system of personnel management and distribution. If EZ is too far away from the town, it would affect the quality of the service since the traffic jams and some unfavored weather condition, which can prevent the trash-collecting trucks from normal working, are unavoidable somehow. Besides, if EZ has a weak system of management and distribution, then even though its personnel or material resources are enormous, it can not work as whole and eventually is lack of efficiency. Additonally, it is still unkown when the trucks ordered can arrive, and even the truck order might not be substantiated yet. Therefore, the author cannot assert that EZ is preferred due to more trucks alone.(这段的几个点很透彻啊!!)

Last but not least, the validity of the survey is open to doubt. Firstly, the author fails to offer enough evidence that the respondents are representative of the entire habitants who receive EZ’s service. It is highly possible (still myriads of people do not respond to the survey)(换个样本不足的说法是不是更好点?^_^), among who there may be many people who feel unsatisfied on EZ’s service. Secondly, it is also possible that the survey was conducted in the very area near the center company of EZ, and therefore it receives a relatively advanced service in deed. However, the partial area service quality can not represent that of the whole area. Without ruling out these two or other scenarios, the author cannot conclude that EZ’s service is satisfied among people in the town based on the survey.

In sum, the argument which seems logical at first glance has several flaws above. To strength the argument, the author should prove the service quality of EZ is also advanced as well as its service quantity. Besides, I need to know more information on the location, management and other equipment of both EZ and ABC to make a complete comparison. Finally, the detailed information on the survey is necessary to make an objective evaluation on EZ.

[ 本帖最后由 prophetluo 于 2007-8-17 23:12 编辑 ]