argument45 [Jet小组] 第3次作业

cascadeUID: 2454141

ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea for the reason that the ice which used to be the bridge of the islands is melting because of the global warming. However, there are several logical flaws in this argument.

First, to support the argument, the author cites a report from local hunters, but whether the report is convincible is still a problem. How many hunters do they took part in writing this report? If there are only a few hunters give the report, it cannot convince me on the arguer’s conclusion. How many islands did the hunters search for the deer?  It is possible that the hunters only hunt for arctic deer in several places and most deer are eating plants leisurely in other islands. Without ruling out these possibilities, the arguer’s assertion is questionable.

Second, there is no sufficient evidence to sustain the arguer’s assumption that the ice covering the sea separating the islands is not enough for deer to travel over it, though there are reports that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. As we known, close to the center of the Arctic, the thickness of the ice nearly comes to several meters which is thick enough for a tank to drive on. In spite of the melting because of the global warming, it is almost has no effect on the ice, considering the surprising thickness of it. Maybe the environment the deer live in is same with the environment which is described above and the deer still can travel form island to island easily as their ancestors.  

Last but not the least, there is no evidence reveals that the decline of the deer due to the global warming. Many factors may reduce the number of the deer. It is possible that an unknown virus attacks the deer and the deer’s body does not have the corresponding antibody, then lots of the deer died of it. It is also possible that the season that the hunters looked for deer is time that the old deer have already died and the female deer are still pregnant.

In sum, the author’s conclusion seems logical and convincible; however, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between global warming and the decline of the deer. Without ruling out other possibilities we talked above, we cannot entirely believe the arguer’s assumption.


[ 本帖最后由 cascade 于 2008-2-6 18:22 编辑 ]

O--honeyUID: 2452493

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this argument, the author concludes that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea for the reason that the ice which used to be the bridge of the islands is melting because of the global warming. However, there are several logical flaws in this argument.

First, to support the argument, the author cites a report from local hunters, but whether the report is convincible is still a problem. How many hunters do they took part in writing this report? If there are only a few hunters giving the report, it cannot convince me on the arguer’s conclusion. How many islands did the hunters search for the deer?  It is possible that the hunters only hunt for arctic deer in several places and most deer are eating plants leisurely in other islands. Without ruling out these possibilities, the arguer’s assertion is questionable.

Second, there is no sufficient evidence to sustain the arguer’s assumption that the ice covering the sea separating the islands is not enough for deer to travel over it, though there are reports that recent global warming trends have caused the sea ice to melt. As we known, close to the center of the Arctic, the thickness of the ice nearly comes to several meters which is thick enough for a tank to drive on. In spite of the melting because of the global warming, it almost has no effect on the ice, considering the surprising thickness of it. Maybe the environment the deer live in is same with the environment which is described above and the deer still can travel form island to island easily as their ancestors.  

Last but not the least, there is no evidence reveals that the decline of the deer due to the global warming. Many factors may reduce the number of the deer. It is possible that an unknown virus attacks the deer and the deer’s body does not have the corresponding antibody, then lots of the deer died on it. It is also possible that the season that the hunters looked for deer is time that the old deer have already died and the female deer are still pregnant.

In sum, the author’s conclusion seems logical and convincible; however, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between global warming and the decline of the deer. Without ruling out other possibilities we talked above, we cannot entirely believe the arguer’s assumption.
(思路很好哦。....值得学习.....就是感觉句子写的不流畅..)