argument147 0806G STRIVE 第三次作业

lanse17UID: 2459286

In this argument, the author concludes that the sales of Whirland video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. To support the conclusions, the arguer points out those video-game players most favor games that provide lifelike graphics in a recent survey and Whirland Company has just introduced several such games with advertising activity directed for young people. However, I find the arguer is logically unconvincing in several aspects.

First of all, the arguer assumes that the less of lifelike graphics in games is the main reason for the decline of sale of Whirland video games in the past two years. Actually other possible explanations are ignored in this argument. Perhaps that the price of such games is so high that few people can afford it. Or perhaps people' attention has been attracted by other enternment, such as movies and books. It is also possible that the economic recession has broken out around the whole country and people have no money on playing games. Without rule out these or other explanation for the decline of sales, the author's inference is unwarranted.  

Secondly, the author fails to provide enough information about this survey to support his or her conclusion. When and where is this survey carried out? What about the samples in this survey, such as the age distribution and the numbers of samples. What about the scale of people who thought lifelike graphics as the most important features in the video-games in all samples? Those data are all closely related with the reliability of a survey. Even though the survey is reliable, the samples in this survey are video-game players, while the advertisement is directed to the people who are 10-25 years old. What about the scale of people at this aging scope in all samples?  Unless the arguer provides exact data about this survey, he or she cannot convince me to support the conclusion.

Thirdly, the arguer hastily infer on the base of extensive advertisement directed to people who are 10-28 years old that the sales of Whirland video games will increase dramatically. It is entirely possible that people at such aging scope do not have enough money to by this kind of game even though they favor it. It is also possible that the government enact a law that prohibits teenagers to play such games. Or perhaps a lot of the same kinds of video games have appeared in the market. Without considering these possibilities, the author cannot justify that the sales will increase rapidly.

In sum, this argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strength it, the author must explain exactly the decline of sales of Whirland video games in the past two years and provide more detail information about the survey. To better assess the conclusion, the arguer also must investigate the whole game market in and out the country.  

谢谢你！！^-^

[ 本帖最后由 lanse17 于 2008-2-29 22:14 编辑 ]