Argument35【0906G 文以载道三月四月小组】第一周第二次作业 by sibslcc

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ARGUMENT35

The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentis.

" Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."

水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居民患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。

提纲：
1.作者引用了一项20年研究，参与者说头痛下降，怀疑study的代表性，是否代表了所有居民的情况，如果人数少或者总是那几个效果好的人参与。

2.即使参与者非常有代表性，虽然是同一类化合物，不能说明都有效果，不能得到因果关系。可能科技进步，可能习惯变健康了，可能周围环境巨大改观。

3.即使真的可以抑制头痛，但是可以作为食品添加剂这一项，不能证明它会真的被广泛应用，即使广泛应用，大家没有一个标准剂量，也许大家添加剂的剂量远远达不到抑制头痛的标准。


In this argument, the author concludes that the number of headaches in Mentia will decrease. To strengthen this conclusion, the author points out that salicylates and aspirin are members of the same chemical family and salicylates can be used as flavor additives for foods. The author also cites a statistics of a twenty-year study to prove it. I find the author's argument unconvincing in several important respects.

First of all, the author cites a result of a twenty-year study about the number of headaches. But the author fails to assure me that the study results accurately reflect the headaches' situations of most residents in Mentia, or that the pool of the participants in the study is sufficient to deduce a conclusion. Without evidence that the participants' situations about headaches are representative of those of the overall population in Mentia, it is hasty to draw any conclusions about the function of salicylates to the Mentia residents.

Second, even assuming that the study is statistically reliable, salicylates are just members of the same chemical family as aspirin. So the author cannot make a causal relation between salicylates and the decline of headaches. The author provides no evidence that the use of salicylates causes the decline of headaches directly. Without such evidence, it is equally possible that other factors are instead responsible for the situation. For instance, perhaps the medical technologies has been developed with the development of sicence. Or perhaps people who always suffered by headaches change their some unhealthy habits in their lives. Also perhaps, the environment in Menia is getting better and better.

Third, even I concede that salicylates are indeed effective to restrain headaches, the author fails to make a positive prediction about the decline of headaches in Mentia merely according to the fact that salicylates can be used as flavor additives. Though it can be used in foods, no evidence shows that salicylates will be widespread use in all categories of foods in Mentia. And there is no standards to determine the amount of this additive, so it is possible that the salicylates used in the foods are insufficient to prevent from headaches. For that matter , maybe using salicylates as flavor additives for foods cannot achieve the effect in restraining headaches.

To sum up, the author's conclusion about the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia will decrease is not well supported. To bolster it, the author must provide more accurate evidence, such as the salicylates can indeed make the number of headaches. To better evaluate the prediction, I would need more information about if the most of the foods use salicylates as flavor additives and if the amount of the additives is sufficient.





[ 本帖最后由 sibslcc 于 2009-1-12 00:40 编辑 ]

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