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改了一下,再看看!
------题目------
The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
'Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years. Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country.'
------正文------
In this argument, the author asserts that Mesa Food(MF), a manufacturer of snack foods, will be even more potential in a larger region, and conclude that Omni Inc(OI)should buy MF to make further development. Although the argument has some merits, close scrutiny reveals that there are several critical logical flaws, which render it unconvincing as it stands.
In the first place, the mere fact that MF's profits increased 20% last year cannot imply MF's growth potential strongly. Since we are not informed the absolute data about increasing. And maybe the production was very small the year before last year. Or it may increase at a decreasing speed. If so, the superficial improvement would be unpersuasive and could not support the author's viewpoint directly. Even if MF' profits surely increased, we still cannot guarantee that MF's profit will maintain improvement at the great speed after OI buys MF. Since the market situation is changing all the time in many aspects, such as customers, distribution channel, material supply and so forth, it is difficult for us to predict the perspective just based on the vague data. Therefore, lacking enough evidence, we cannot sure that the merge will have potential in the future.
In the second place, the argument has a hasty assumption that the age group 14-to-25 year olds will like MF's products, just because they consumes the most snack food. The arguer gives no evidence to justify the assertion that who likes the snack food will surely be favor of MF’s products. This consume group may choose other alternative. Considering snack food is a kind of common and prevalent food, there are possibly many competitors in the market, whose products may be more popular than that of MF.
In the third place, the argument ignores many other factors referring to profit. Since the given proposal will be executed in a broader region if it is accepted, many more business management aspects should be considered, such as the material quantity, the transportation fees, the propaganda strategy and so on. OI will confront to huge competitive pressure and investment risk. Query whether OI could get the cost back, or whether it would get profit. Therefore, the investment suggestion seems unreasonable as it stands.
Finally, the argument commits a fallacy of sweeping generalization. Only analyzing the particular situation in a small region, the arguer suggests that OI should buy MF and concentrate in DS throughout the whole country. It is entirely possible that people in other regions do not like DS at all, or they have had many similar foods. The suggestion is not reasonable unless the author could give sufficient reason to assure the situation in the small region could fully represent that of the country.
To sum up, this argument lacks some critical evidence and could not convince us strongly. In order to bolster the conclusion, the author should do more precise probe and analysis both in the positive and negative aspects of the mergence plan.
[ Last edited by lignumvitae on 2005-7-11 at 01:14 ] |
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