argument38 多谢各位拍砖~~

cityriversonUID: 2119340

重新改写了一次，不知道这次是否好一些:P

38. The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.




In this argument the arguer suggests a daily use of Ichthaid in order to prevent colds and lower absenteeism. To support his suggestion, the arguer cite a study made in the nearby city East Meria. However, the preconditions of the suggestion lie on some unconvincing facts and thus make the final suggestion unconvincing.

To begin with, there isn't enough evidence showing that the people in East Meria catch few colds. The arguer mentions that these people visit doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. However, the medical conditions in the city may be bad and there usually are not enough doctors or hospitals for people to get treatment. It is also possible that the people in East Meria don't like visiting doctors even when they get colds. Instead they would like to take some medicines themselves. In these cases, the occurrence of colds in this city may be much higher than West Meria.

In addition, even if the people in East city catch few colds during a year, the reason for this phenomenon may not be the high assumption of fish. It is possible that the people in East Meria take exercises often and thus have strong bodies. Or they regularly eat some nutritional supplement which help them acquire the resistance to colds. No evidence shows that the usually eating fish cause the few occurrence of colds among these residents in East Meria.

Last but not the least, the nutritional supplement Ichthaid may not have the same function as eating of fish, even though the latter help the people reduce the possibility of catching colds. This nutritional supplement is derived from fish oil, while the fish oil may not have the function of preventing colds. Even if the fish oil could help prevent colds, the functional matter may be other compounds that are not contained in the Ichthaid. In this case, taking Ichthaid would have no use in preventing colds and may have other bad effects.

To sum up, the suggestion is groundless since the facts and assumptions are unconvincing. In order to make a more constructive suggestion, the arguer should investigate more carefully into the existing facts and do other researches to convince the relationship between them.