Argument20 taotaoQ作业（ＣＯＦＦＥ组）大家新年快乐！！！

taotaoQUID：2105710

网络故障，迟交了，麻烦组员们了！！！:)
Argument 20 高频12次
The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.

"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
逻辑错误：1人口虽然达到了100，000，如果新生婴儿比例增大，若是行人安全意识低，与车辆无关，则没必要实行限制；
          没有调查研究表明50减至20是合理的，如果减少导致人们出行不便呢？若是旅游旺季游客增多？（详）
         2就算能减少事故，怎么能肯定能减少50%，规定还未实施，这只能是不准确的猜测（详）
         3 去年Torsean市的情况不能与Balmer简单类比，可能（T与B的路况不同，气候不同，那儿的人少，车少，行人、司机安全意识高。Moreover,去年的情况与今年就更相去甚远了。）（详）
         4 这篇文章本身只是A LETTER TO EDITORAL，没有权威性(略)
正文：
The author of this letter concludes that the town council of Balmer Island should restrict the number of mopeds rented by moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season, thereby, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians could be reduced by 50%. To justify this conclusion the author points out that the population of Balmer Island goes up to 100,000 in summer, and takes an analogy to Torseau Island which   is neighboring to it. However, I find this argument specious on several grounds.

First of all, the population of Balmer Island raised to 100,000 in this summer the author mentions above, but no evidence provided to prove this is the case. Whether the data come out in the result of scientific statistic? Even if it is true, assume that the most part of increasing population is infant, and then it is not necessary to limit the number of mopeds, because the baby faint might not caused the pedestrians accidence. It is also possible that the increasing population by reason of tourists who come to Balmer island for summer vocation. And the limitation would lead to inconvenient of touring around the island. It is obvious the negative affect more than the positive affect will be brought by the institution. Another possibility is that the     safe sense of pedestrians is much lower, which is the main cause of accidence; meanwhile, the responsibility of mopeds is much less. Thereby, the limitation is nonetheless.

Even if the limitation will be helpful to reduce the rates of accidence, how does the author claim the town council attains the reduction of 50% surely? The institution is not yet operated, the rate could be lowed is merely an assumption. Moreover, the author does not offer sufficient statistic and illustration to support the assumption. Thence, the common sense tells me that the decreasing rate is just an unreasonable and not rooted hypothesis as it stands.

In addition, Torseau, the city which is in the neighboring island, achieves the goal of 50% decreasing through the institution, can not be taken analogy to the Balmer Island. Because lacking information of Torseau could not substantiate Balmer Island can reach the same objective. It is entirely possible that the geographic, condition of road and climate of Balmer Island are not different from Torseau. Perhaps, the population of Torseau is much less than that of Balmer. Perhaps, the people in Torseau are not as likely to go outing as people in Balmer. Thence, the possibility of decreasing rate of Torseau is much larger than Balmer. Moreover, the last year circumstance could not even justify this year.

To sum up, the author’s conclusion can not substantiated by these groundless assumption. And the lacking information about Torseau can not convince me the Balmer could achieve the same goal.

[ Last edited by taotaoQ on  at 2006-1-1 19:54 ]

[ Last edited by taotaoQ on  at 2006-1-1 19:58 ]

Cappuccino☆UID：2155660

不错啊~~

嗯，交了作业后要把连接贴到总贴里哦

Cappuccino☆UID：2155660

The author of this letter concludes that the town council of Balmer Island should restrict the number of mopeds rented by moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season, thereby, the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians could be reduced by 50%. To justify this conclusion the author points out that the population of Balmer Island goes up to 100,000 in summer, and takes an analogy to Torseau Island which   is neighboring to it. However, I find this argument specious on several grounds. (开头不错,写的长句子很有进步啊)

First of all, (the author argues that)the population of Balmer Island raised to 100,000 in this summer the author mentions above, but no evidence provided to prove this is the case(个人觉得改成statement要好些). Whether the data come out in the result of scientific statistic? Even if it is true, assume(assuming) that the most part of increasing population is infant(are infants), and then it is not necessary to limit the number of mopeds, because the baby faint might not caused the pedestrians accidence. It is also possible that the increasing population by reason of tourists who come to Balmer island for summer vocation(从句没谓语?). And the limitation would lead to inconvenient(inconvenience) of touring around the island. It is obvious the negative affect more than(more than显得口语化,可以改成beyond) the positive affect will(用would好些) be brought by the institution. Another possibility is that the safe sense("安全性"吗?像是中文翻译过来的耶,我觉得应该用:feel less safer或the safety not be guaranteed) of pedestrians is much lower, which is the main cause of accidence(accidents); meanwhile, the responsibility of mopeds is much less. Thereby, the limitation is nonetheless.

Even if the limitation will be helpful to reduce the rates of accidence, how does the author claim the town council attains the reduction of 50% surely? The institution is not yet operated, the rate could be lowed is merely an assumption. Moreover, the author does not offer sufficient statistic and illustration to support the assumption. Thence, the common sense tells me that the decreasing rate is just an unreasonable and not rooted hypothesis as it stands.(这段应该是略写的吧)

In addition, Torseau, the city which is(which is去掉好些) in the neighboring island, achieves the goal of 50% decreasing through the institution, (and)can not be taken analogy to the Balmer Island. Because lacking information of Torseau could not substantiate Balmer Island can reach the same objective. It is entirely possible that the geographic condition of road and climate of Balmer Island are not(not去掉) different from Torseau. Perhaps, the population of Torseau is much less than that of Balmer. Perhaps, the people in Torseau are not as likely to go outing as people in Balmer. Thence, the possibility of decreasing rate of Torseau is much larger than Balmer. Moreover, the last year circumstance could not even justify this year.

To sum up, the author’s conclusion can not substantiated by these groundless assumption. And the lacking information about Torseau can not convince me the Balmer could achieve the same goal.

文章的逻辑漏洞基本找全了,但是在抨击过程中的结构安排稍显不妥,可以看看北美范文里的这篇文章.你把有写逻辑错误写在一段,而北美范文却是分开写的的,这样显得文章抨击的程度更深

taotaoQUID：2105710

谢谢阿布，一直说要看北美范文，一直没看
看来有些东西得好好补补再下笔了