argument190 jingjing（再次限时成功）^_^

jingjingtousUID：2164820

TOPIC: ARGUMENT190 - The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
WORDS: 428          TIME: 0:28:12          DATE: 2006-2-12

提纲
1 错误的认为导致预售票下降的原因只有两个
2 即使是choice of music 作者无端的认为一定要增加modern music和Richerts’ music
3 认为这个策略肯定能增加advance ticket and attendance 完全没有根据

Before accepting the author's recommendation that the organizers of the concert should add more modern music in the concert and especially music composed by Richerts, I find the argument is not sufficiently supported by the evidence given. The author seems to unduly rely on dubious assumptions and draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that there are only two reasons for the decreasing of advance tickets pursuits: the weather and the music choice. However, this might not be the case in that the author overlooks some other explanations such as the comparatively higher prices compared to other concerts, or the poor quality of Glenville Summer Concert. Thus, without considering and ruling out such scenarios, the author cannot convince us that it is the music choice that results in the declination of advance ticket purchase.

In addition, even assuming the foregoing assertion was substantiated, the author's conclusion that the organizers of the concert should characterize more modern music and use the recording of Richerts in the concert is still unwarranted. In the first place, we are not informed whether the residents of Glenville prefer the modern music; it is entirely possible that they take little interests in it. Moreover, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the preference of Glenville residents to Richerts' recording and the adding of this music in the concert. It is highly possible that they can listen to Richerts' music at home by CD player and there is no need for them to pay an additional amount of money to listen to the concert which contains Richerts' music.

Finally, the author unreasonably asserts that by these measures mentioned above, the organizers of concerts could certainly increase advance ticket purchased and further increase attendance at the concerts. However, this assumption is dubious. Without the concrete and comprehensive market analysis in Glenville, at least a survey among the residents, we cannot ensure this strategy will succeed in the foreseeable future. Perhaps, with the thriving of new business in Glenville, people in Glenville tend to pay their most attentions on the development of local economy rather than the music. Thus, the author's conclusion which based on this specious assumption is completely groundless.

In sum, the argument is problematic in several respects as it stands. To bolster it, the author should provide strong evidence that it is merely the choice of music that lead to the declination of advance tickets purchase and the attendance rate of the concerts and confirm that the natives are inclined to Richert's music but not other people's recordings.

jingjingtousUID：2164820

诶，怎么没有人改我的呢？呵呵

智恩UID：2160717

seat taken!

virginia730UID：208873

争取来学习下~!!
这2天冬眠了.........T T

智恩UID：2160717

Before accepting the author's recommendation that the organizers of the concert should add more modern music in the concert and especially music composed by Richerts, I find the argument is not sufficiently supported by the evidence given. The author seems to unduly rely on dubious assumptions and draw a conclusion that is fundamentally flawed.

To begin with, the author unfairly assumes that there are only two reasons for the decreasing of advance tickets pursuits: the weather and the music choice. However, this might not be the case in that the author overlooks some other explanations such as the comparatively higher prices compared to other concerts, or the poor quality of Glenville Summer Concert.[可能人们现在比以前更忙了，没有那么多时件来看;可能现在直接买票更方便了，以避免先买了，但临时有事又不能去就浪费了，可以再多说电原因] Thus, without considering and ruling out such scenarios, the author cannot convince us that it is the music choice that results in the declination of advance ticket purchase.

In addition, even assuming the foregoing assertion was substantiated, the author's conclusion that the organizers of the concert should characterize more modern music and use the recording of Richerts in the concert is still unwarranted. In the first place, we are not informed whether the residents of Glenville prefer the modern music; it is entirely possible that they take little interests in it. Moreover, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the preference of Glenville residents to Richerts' recording and the adding of this music in the concert. It is highly possible that they can listen to Richerts' music at home by CD player and there is no need for them to pay an additional amount of money to listen to the concert which contains Richerts' music.

Finally, the author unreasonably asserts that by these measures mentioned above, the organizers of concerts could certainly increase advance ticket purchased and further increase attendance at the concerts. However, this assumption is dubious. Without the concrete and comprehensive market analysis in Glenville, at least a survey[ of what,最好说好是做什么调查] among the residents, we cannot ensure this strategy will succeed in the foreseeable future. Perhaps, with the thriving of new business in Glenville, people in Glenville tend to pay their most attentions on the development of local economy rather than the music. Thus, the author's conclusion which based on this specious assumption is completely groundless.

In sum, the argument is problematic in several respects as it stands. To bolster it, the author should provide strong evidence that it is merely the choice of music that lead to the declination of advance tickets purchase and the attendance rate of the concerts and confirm that the natives are inclined to Richert's music but not other people's recordings.

可能还有些可能性要再具体一点
我也是感觉限时写得就很泛，我限时写的就好像是点到为止，而没有啥分析，如果多分析时间又不够了，郁闷中